# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 21
**Author:** ![Belowjob2.0](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Belowjob2.0](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Belowjob2.0)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2012, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/402 "2012-10-02T15:33:45Z")
So the Pubbies’ plan to get Obama to do bath salts and eat Boehner’s face isn’t working? Anduril, you need to get on that. Call your girl Hilary and talk some sense into her. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2012, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/403 "2012-10-02T15:47:46Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > The now-cast is at 97.8 - 2.2. And the Nov. 6 forecast is at 85.7 - 14.3. IOW, Romney’s down to having one chance in seven of winning. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2012, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/404 "2012-10-02T15:52:51Z")
> [@Bob Ducca](#): > > New [Obama campaign ad](http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/new-obama-ad-goes-after-romney-on-china?ref=fpb) hits Romney hard on China. Good to see they’re not letting up just because they’re polling ahead. Always run up the score if you can. Ooh, that’s gonna leave a mark… ---
**Author:** ![enomaj](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/59ef9b/32.png) [@enomaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enomaj)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2012, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/405 "2012-10-02T16:34:49Z")
> [@Belowjob2.0](#): > > So the Pubbies’ plan to get Obama to do bath salts and eat Boehner’s face isn’t working? > > Anduril, you need to get on that. Call your girl Hilary and talk some sense into her. Black people like grape. Not orange. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2012, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/406 "2012-10-02T16:59:10Z")
I have no opinion as to the OP, but would hasten to remind that if you are ordering dancing shoes from Amazon, you might be well advised to put in your order soonest. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2012, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/407 "2012-10-02T17:12:48Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > I have no opinion as to the OP, but would hasten to remind that if you are ordering dancing shoes from Amazon, you might be well advised to put in your order soonest. As a consolation prize, Mitt can have a set of dancing _horse_shoes. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2012, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/408 "2012-10-02T18:38:36Z")
Are you better off today than Mitt’s horse was four years ago? ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2012, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/409 "2012-10-02T19:33:06Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > The now-cast is at 97.8 - 2.2. But yesterday Romney’s was at 1.9% chance, so in one day he has gone up 13%!! Maybe Fox News should run a headline. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2012, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/410 "2012-10-02T19:43:06Z")
RCP has Obama with at least 269 electoral votes “leaning Democrat” I’m not sure why Nevada is not considered “leaning Democrat” I thought 5% was teh cutoff for that metric. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2012, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/411 "2012-10-02T20:42:23Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Are you better off today than Mitt’s horse was four years ago? The fancy Olympics one or the one they had to drug up to make it look good enough to sell? ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2012, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/412 "2012-10-02T21:15:13Z")
I dunno. A lot can happen in a month. Then I read statements [like this:](http://www.nationalreview.com/blogs/print/329019) > [@Unnamed Romney advisor](#): > > This is really about introducing him to the country. It’s the largest audience he has ever had. Everybody’s watching. Really? “Introducing him to the country”? Isn’t it a little late for that? Shouldn’t he have done that months ago, so Obama’s Bain attacks would have a more difficult time taking hold? Does his campaign really think that he’s an unknown factor up to now? Perhaps they think the image he’s been given (by himself and his opponents Democratic and Republican) are false? If so, shouldn’t they have tried to counter it a LONG time ago? ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2012, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/413 "2012-10-02T21:30:20Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > I dunno. A lot can happen in a month. Then I read statements [like this:](http://www.nationalreview.com/blogs/print/329019) > > Really? “Introducing him to the country”? Isn’t it a little late for that? Shouldn’t he have done that months ago, so Obama’s Bain attacks would have a more difficult time taking hold? > > Does his campaign really think that he’s an unknown factor up to now? Perhaps they think the image he’s been given (by himself and his opponents Democratic and Republican) are false? If so, shouldn’t they have tried to counter it a LONG time ago? I thought he got introduced again at the convention. And that great Reality TV show the Republican Debates should have done it. Reminds me of a mother trying to push a girl on her son: "Give her one more chance, she got a _great_ personality. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2012, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/414 "2012-10-02T21:31:26Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > The fancy Olympics one or the one they had to drug up to make it look good enough to sell? Link to that last one? As a former horse owner, I want to know more! ---
**Author:** ![a35362](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/3da27b/32.png) [@a35362](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/a35362)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2012, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/415 "2012-10-02T21:41:56Z")
We had this thread [here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=657555). ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2012, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/416 "2012-10-02T22:21:23Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Really? “Introducing him to the country”? Isn’t it a little late for that? Shouldn’t he have done that months ago, so Obama’s Bain attacks would have a more difficult time taking hold? More problematic might be the [“Everybody’s watching”](http://prospect.org/article/will-wednesday-be-game-changer-thats-debatable) belief. A decent sized audience watches the debates, but it is also made up highly of partisans, folks who have already decided. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2012, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/417 "2012-10-03T01:13:47Z")
Well, Mitt’s doing his best to settle the matter once and for all: > [@](#): > > [Mitt Romney suggests cutting mortgage interest deduction on eve of presidential debate](http://www.newsday.com/news/nation/mitt-romney-suggests-cutting-mortgage-interest-deduction-on-eve-of-presidential-debate-1.4066809) > > Offering deficit-cutting ideas before his first debate with President Barack Obama, Mitt Romney says he might be willing to reduce income tax deductions used by millions of families for home mortgage interest and health care costs… ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2012, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/418 "2012-10-03T01:27:34Z")
Still too soon to say Mitt’s toast. A terrible debate performance by Obama, or a terrible and unpredictable event such as a major terrorist attack or economic setback, could seriously shake up the race. If current trends continue, though, I’m more and more confident that the President will be reelected. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2012, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/419 "2012-10-03T01:46:05Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > Well, Mitt’s doing his best to settle the matter once and for all: Seems they [somewhat misreported it](http://www.newsday.com/news/nation/mitt-romney-suggests-cutting-mortgage-interest-deduction-on-eve-of-presidential-debate-1.4066809): > [@](#): > > In an interview Monday night with Denver TV station KDVR, Romney said, “As an option you could say everybody’s going to get up to a $17,000 deduction. And you could use your charitable deduction, your home mortgage deduction, or others — your health care deduction, and you can fill that bucket, if you will, that $17,000 bucket that way. And higher income people might have a lower number.” Staying away from the question of whether $17K is too high, too low, or just right, a cap on total deductions makes a lot of sense to me. The rest of his tax plan is crap, but this is a genuinely good idea. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2012, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/420 "2012-10-03T02:01:05Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Staying away from the question of whether $17K is too high, too low, or just right, a cap on total deductions makes a lot of sense to me. The rest of his tax plan is crap, but this is a genuinely good idea. No, it isn’t. It’s simply an attempt to soak the middle class to pay for the top-bracket rate cuts without even having the honesty to admit it up front. Unless the Democrats are utterly incompetent at messages (which they aren’t this time, for a change), an attempt to limit middle-class taxpayers to a deduction cap equal to the break Mitt gets on his dancing horse’s ass\* (which, as a “business expense” would be unaffected by Mitt’s cap proposal) isn’t going to go over at all well. \*Figuring that $17000/[$77731](http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-27/romneys-have-tax-deduction-with-olympic-hopes-on-rafalca.html), or about 22%, is a reasonable estimate for the ass-to-entire-horse ratio ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2012, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/421 "2012-10-03T17:19:36Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > No, it isn’t. It’s simply an attempt to soak the middle class to pay for the top-bracket rate cuts without even having the honesty to admit it up front. Oh jeez. I said, the rest of his tax plan was crap. Maybe it wasn’t clear, but I was discussing this idea _by itself_. It certainly doesn’t un-crap the rest of his tax plan. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=20) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=22)