# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 23
**Author:** ![a35362](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/3da27b/32.png) [@a35362](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/a35362)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 1:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/442 "2012-10-05T01:20:38Z")
Obama spoke before a crowd of [30,000](http://sync.democraticunderground.com/10021472407) people in [Madison](http://host.madison.com/gallery/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/photos-president-obama-in-madison/collection_c5e4beb4-0e68-11e2-b358-0019bb2963f4.html#16), Wisconsin today at a [rally](http://host.madison.com/gallery/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/photos-president-obama-in-madison/collection_c5e4beb4-0e68-11e2-b358-0019bb2963f4.html#24). They seem pretty [happy](http://host.madison.com/gallery/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/photos-president-obama-in-madison/collection_c5e4beb4-0e68-11e2-b358-0019bb2963f4.html#21) to see him. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/443 "2012-10-05T02:21:22Z")
The President will be in Cleveland, Ohio tomorrow. As I learned when I volunteered tonight at his local campaign office, the tickets are already all gone (which is fine; I actually hadn’t planned on going). ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/444 "2012-10-05T03:24:49Z")
> [@Anduril](#): > > Mwahahhaha! My calling it for Romney a few days back now doesn’t seem to be so out of touch, is it? Hehehe! Yes? ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/445 "2012-10-05T04:01:34Z")
Weeks after they were revealed and after he defended them in spirit (if not in word) time and again, Romney [finally admits](http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/04/romney_says_his_47_comment_was_wrong.html) that his 47% remarks were screwed up. > [@](#): > > Mitt Romney tried to distance himself from perhaps his most damaging campaign moment, saying that his infamous “47 percent” remarks were “completely wrong,” National Journal reports. > > Said Romney: “Clearly in a campaign with hundreds if not thousands of speeches and question-and-answer sessions, now and then you are going to say something that doesn’t come out right. In this case I said something that’s just completely wrong. And I absolutely believe, however, that my life has shown that I care about 100 percent. And that has been demonstrated throughout my life. And this whole campaign is about the 100 percent. When I become president it will be about helping the 100 percent.” ---
**Author:** ![PoorMarie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/b5ac83/32.png) [@PoorMarie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PoorMarie)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 12:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/446 "2012-10-05T12:46:45Z")
Unemployment rate went down to 7.8%! ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 1:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/447 "2012-10-05T13:02:46Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > Weeks after they were revealed and after he defended them in spirit (if not in word) time and again, Romney [finally admits](http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/04/romney_says_his_47_comment_was_wrong.html) that his 47% remarks were screwed up. Poor Mitt. He just can’t _help_ flip-flopping. ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 1:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/448 "2012-10-05T13:07:46Z")
> [@PoorMarie](#): > > Unemployment rate went down to 7.8%! Yes, I know, because I just saw it on [CNN.com](http://CNN.com), [NYTimes.com](http://NYTimes.com), [Foxnews.com](http://Foxnews.com), [Latimes.com](http://Latimes.com), and even the Drudge Report! Okay, on Fox it was buried way down in something called “gretawire”, but still. Leave it to Fox… ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/449 "2012-10-05T13:26:15Z")
> [@PoorMarie](#): > > Unemployment rate went down to 7.8%! Yeah, but didn’t something happen Wednesday night? I can’t recall the specifics… I have a vague memory of two guys on a stage… somebody help me out here… ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/450 "2012-10-05T13:32:11Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > Yeah, but didn’t something happen Wednesday night? I can’t recall the specifics… I have a vague memory of two guys on a stage… somebody help me out here… I think the conventional wisdom (in other words, no cite) is that debates have only a marginal impact on the election outcome, unless either candidate does something incredibly stupid on stage. Which didn’t happen. On the other hand, this election is all about the economy, as both candidates keep telling us. So the unemployment rate is very significant. And regardless, there are virtually no “undecideds” left, so neither event is likely to alter the course of the election. ---
**Author:** ![muldoonthief](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/muldoonthief/32/3188_2.png) [@muldoonthief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/muldoonthief)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/451 "2012-10-05T13:57:03Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > The President will be in Cleveland, Ohio tomorrow. As I learned when I volunteered tonight at his local campaign office, the tickets are already all gone (which is fine; I actually hadn’t planned on going). Can’t you trade on your [celebrity status](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=650920) to get a ticket? 😃 ---
**Author:** ![2ManyTacos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/2/3da27b/32.png) [@2ManyTacos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2ManyTacos)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/452 "2012-10-05T15:29:19Z")
So I guess we have the [polling snapshot](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/) of the effects of Romney’s debate victory. He has pulled ahead in Florida and Virginia, but Ohio is kind of a wash, though the degree to which the race has tightened there is definitely a bit surprising. This doesn’t reflect the great unemployment news, though, so we’ll see if any of this sticks. My guess is that Ohio will probably go back to near where it was pre-debates, but who knows about Florida and Virginia. ---
**Author:** ![Anduril](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c0e974/32.png) [@Anduril](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anduril)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/453 "2012-10-05T15:38:05Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Yes? Seems like Romney has pulled ahead in Virginia and Florida and the race has tightened in Ohio. Still out of touch? ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/454 "2012-10-05T15:39:03Z")
> [@Fiddle\_Peghead](#): > > Yes, I know, because I just saw it on [CNN.com](http://CNN.com), [NYTimes.com](http://NYTimes.com), [Foxnews.com](http://Foxnews.com), [Latimes.com](http://Latimes.com), and even the Drudge Report! Okay, on Fox it was buried way down in something called “gretawire”, but still. Leave it to Fox… Oh it’s at the top of [FoxNews.com](http://FoxNews.com) now, but it’s headlined like this: > [@](#): > > Jobless rate dips under 8%, but.. > Is the number real? They just needed a little bit more time this morning to figure out how to make the huge reduction in unemployment sound menacing. ---
**Author:** ![MsWhatsit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/eb8c5e/32.png) [@MsWhatsit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MsWhatsit)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/455 "2012-10-05T15:41:12Z")
> [@Anduril](#): > > Still out of touch? Yes. ---
**Author:** ![Anduril](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c0e974/32.png) [@Anduril](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anduril)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/456 "2012-10-05T15:41:51Z")
> [@MsWhatsit](#): > > Yes. Wow! Mwhahahaha! ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/457 "2012-10-05T15:44:25Z")
> [@Anduril](#): > > Wow! Mwhahahaha! Don’t count your Mittens before they’re hatched…there was a jobs report out today that should have Romney huddled in a corner of his hotel room in a fetal position… ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/458 "2012-10-05T15:47:08Z")
> [@Anduril](#): > > Wow! Mwhahahaha! Seriously? You think a couple polls that show a slight shift to Romney in a couple battleground states from two well-known partisan polling firms is a slam dunk? ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/459 "2012-10-05T15:49:21Z")
> [@Anduril](#): > > Seems like Romney has pulled ahead in Virginia and Florida and the race has tightened in Ohio. > > Still out of touch? I’ll believe it when Nate Silver says it. ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/460 "2012-10-05T15:52:15Z")
> [@Anduril](#): > > Seems like Romney has pulled ahead in Virginia and Florida and the race has tightened in Ohio. > > Still out of touch? The [RCP](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html) average still has Obama up by 0.5 in Florida. A statistical dead heat, but Romney hasn’t pulled ahead just yet. I didn’t check the other states. Here you go: [Ohio](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html) and [Virginia](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/va/virginia_romney_vs_obama-1774.html). Wait, I see that this is for Oct 4th. Please disregard! :smack: ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/461 "2012-10-05T15:59:59Z")
> [@jsc1953](#): > > I’ll believe it when Nate Silver says it. And Nate is saying to wait a day or two until more and better polls can be conducted. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=22) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=24)