# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 26
**Author:** ![JoelUpchurch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f05b48/32.png) [@JoelUpchurch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JoelUpchurch)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/502 "2012-10-09T20:30:28Z")
I like to play with [www.270towin.com](http://www.270towin.com). Right now there are 9 states in play. As I see it, Romney needs Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia and one other swing state. Worrying about the rest of the country is a waste of time. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/503 "2012-10-09T20:41:13Z")
> [@JoelUpchurch](#): > > I like to play with [www.270towin.com](http://www.270towin.com). Right now there are 9 states in play. As I see it, Romney needs Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia and one other swing state. Worrying about the rest of the country is a waste of time. I can see an alternate scenario where Romney loses Ohio and Virginia but wins Michigan and Wisconsin, due to his background and his running mate. MI, WI, and PA are important simply because if Romney wins any one of those states his path gets a lot easier. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/504 "2012-10-09T20:49:24Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I can see an alternate scenario where Romney loses Ohio and Virginia but wins Michigan and Wisconsin, due to his background and his running mate. It’s a little fanciful to believe his “background” matters here. Voters don’t care that Romney lived in Michigan 50 years ago and that his father was the governor in the late 1960s. On the other hand they may care that he opposed the auto bailout. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/505 "2012-10-09T21:01:28Z")
Something has to explain why except for the post-DNC bounce period, Michigan has been consistently close. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/506 "2012-10-09T21:25:56Z")
It looks like [Nate Silver has incorporated the debate into his latest forecast](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/). The bottom line: Obama may lose Florida (he’s now showing it pink), but will win the election. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/507 "2012-10-09T21:37:52Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I can see an alternate scenario where Romney loses Ohio and Virginia but wins Michigan and Wisconsin, due to his background and his running mate. > > MI, WI, and PA are important simply because if Romney wins any one of those states his path gets a lot easier. Gosh, it pains me to keep bursting your bubble. I’m older than most Michiganders and I’m too young to have voted for George Romney for governor. To most of my fellow residents, he’s a forgotten governor. I was also too young to have voted for his wife for US Senator, but she got her ass handed to her. So it’s not people in Michigan ever went “ahhhhhh! Romney!” ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/508 "2012-10-09T21:38:28Z")
Am I the only one who has found the change of tone in this thread humorous? ---
**Author:** ![Hyperelastic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Hyperelastic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hyperelastic)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/509 "2012-10-09T21:40:57Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Am I the only one who has found the change of tone in this thread humorous? Nope, I’ve found it quite droll as well. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/510 "2012-10-09T22:12:28Z")
> [@jsc1953](#): > > It looks like [Nate Silver has incorporated the debate into his latest forecast](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/). The bottom line: Obama may lose Florida (he’s now showing it pink), but will win the election. Has he done something special to “incorporate the debate into his latest forecast” or do you just mean he updated it with today’s polling data? ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/511 "2012-10-09T22:31:32Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Has he done something special to “incorporate the debate into his latest forecast” or do you just mean he updated it with today’s polling data? The latter. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/512 "2012-10-09T22:42:08Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Am I the only one who has found the change of tone in this thread humorous? _shrug_ Only a very few people were willing to “call” the election for Obama even at the beginning of the thread. Look back. ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/513 "2012-10-09T23:07:15Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Am I the only one who has found the change of tone in this thread humorous? Ah, you’re back. Your absence seemed a bit conspicuous… ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/514 "2012-10-09T23:52:36Z")
> [@jsc1953](#): > > It looks like [Nate Silver has incorporated the debate into his latest forecast](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/). The bottom line: Obama may lose Florida (he’s now showing it pink), but will win the election. So he fell behind in the polling for the first time, but he’s got a 76% chance of winning. ---
**Author:** ![Typo\_Knig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/cdc98d/32.png) [@Typo\_Knig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Typo_Knig)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2012, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/515 "2012-10-10T00:04:55Z")
Unless Romney gets another boost his debate bounce may tighten the race, but it won’t win him the election. Any Republican has an uphill battle in the electoral college. Even if Romney flips Florida he’s got to flip a few other states as well. If the next debates are declared “draws” by the media, then the story will shift to “Romney’s victory in the first debate did not alter the fundamentals of this election.” It will still be close in the popular vote, with the EC magnifying the result. If Ryan and Romney “win” the remaining debates, or if there’s major bad news for Obama, it’s anyone’s race. Silver’s simulations show Obama winning in about 80% of the trial runs, but the margins are predicted to be tight. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2012, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/516 "2012-10-10T00:05:55Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > So he fell behind in the polling for the first time, but he’s got a 76% chance of winning. Yes, because national polls do not necessarily relate to the results of the electoral vote. This has been explained to you frequently. Do you not comprehend this? ---
**Author:** ![Anduril](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c0e974/32.png) [@Anduril](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anduril)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2012, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/517 "2012-10-10T00:12:18Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Because you didn’t say he would be highly competitive. You said he had _already won the election_. That’s what’s calling it for someone entails. Somebody then responded that I was out of touch. I then asked, “How out of touch could I be if Romney is competitive?” ---
**Author:** ![JoelUpchurch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f05b48/32.png) [@JoelUpchurch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JoelUpchurch)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2012, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/518 "2012-10-10T00:38:09Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I can see an alternate scenario where Romney loses Ohio and Virginia but wins Michigan and Wisconsin, due to his background and his running mate. > > MI, WI, and PA are important simply because if Romney wins any one of those states his path gets a lot easier. 270towin turned MI and PA blue a couple of weeks ago. If they start swinging again, then Romney will have a lot more options. I’m a Republican myself, so I wouldn’t mind. Romney has gotten some better results in the last couple of polls, but not got enough to change colors. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2012, 12:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/519 "2012-10-10T00:40:56Z")
> [@Anduril](#): > > That’s what’s calling it for someone entails. Somebody then responded that I was out of touch. I then asked, “How out of touch could I be if Romney is competitive?” Because it’s a silly assertion. ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2012, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/520 "2012-10-10T01:06:04Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Am I the only one who has found the change of tone in this thread humorous? You’ll eat these words. ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2012, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/521 "2012-10-10T01:10:49Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > So he fell behind in the polling for the first time, but he’s got a 76% chance of winning. Pay attention to the individual state polls. And realize that Nate Silver’s analysis incorporates the results of several polls, and evaluates the Electoral College advantage, which is still Obama’s, like it or not. Edit to add: look at [this chart](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_race_changes.html). Notice how many swing states Romney needs to win. Any many fewer Obama needs. Now do you understand why the odds remain in Obama’s favor? The hole Romney dug himself through September was very deep. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=25) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=27)