# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Bosstone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/22d042/32.png) [@Bosstone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosstone)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2012, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/41 "2012-09-18T18:08:04Z")
You know who _else_ won after being written off early? [spoiler][Truman](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dewey_Defeats_Truman). What, who did you think I was going to say?[/spoiler] ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2012, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/42 "2012-09-18T19:47:20Z")
Nate Silver says Romney has a chance. So Romney has a chance. What gaffes Romney makes don’t matter when they don’t move the polls. His stupid Libya comments had no apparent effect. Whether his stupid fundraised comments will have an effect we don’t yet know. Fox, predictably, is already running editorials saying “Romney was totally right, give him credit for being honest,” though of course taken literally Romney’s 47% figure is unadulterated bullshit. His comments were stupid, mean, and divisive, and his base will love them. It’s hard to believe a guy like Romney, who is so far emerging as the dumbest Presidential candidate in a long time, could have a chance. But he absolutely does, guys. (Frankly, it is a testament ro Romney’s incompetence that he isn’t **winning** , considering he is the challenger running in a bad economy against a guy many Americans still belive is a Kenyan, a Muslim, a terrorist, or all three.) The polls are close; Obama would win if the election was today, but there is time for a small 2, 3 percent shift that would hand the election to Romney. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2012, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/43 "2012-09-18T22:00:04Z")
> [@](#): > > Quoth **DMark** : > > Personally, I think those ads are becoming worthless - from both sides. People are beginning to realize they are taking things out of context and I highly doubt more than .00001% of the viewers can be swayed at this point. You think that there are only a couple dozen undecided voters in the whole country? ---
**Author:** ![Andiethewestie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ba9def/32.png) [@Andiethewestie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andiethewestie)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2012, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/44 "2012-09-18T22:13:06Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Nate Silver says Romney has a chance. So Romney has a chance. > > What gaffes Romney makes don’t matter when they don’t move the polls. His stupid Libya comments had no apparent effect. Whether his stupid fundraised comments will have an effect we don’t yet know. Fox, predictably, is already running editorials saying “Romney was totally right, give him credit for being honest,” though of course taken literally Romney’s 47% figure is unadulterated bullshit. His comments were stupid, mean, and divisive, and his base will love them. > > It’s hard to believe a guy like Romney, who is so far emerging as the dumbest Presidential candidate in a long time, could have a chance. But he absolutely does, guys. (Frankly, it is a testament ro Romney’s incompetence that he isn’t **winning** , considering he is the challenger running in a bad economy against a guy many Americans still belive is a Kenyan, a Muslim, a terrorist, or all three.) The polls are close; Obama would win if the election was today, but there is time for a small 2, 3 percent shift that would hand the election to Romney. THIS. It’s very easy to get complacent when the challenger is a dufus like Romney. But it’s always very dangerous. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2012, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/45 "2012-09-18T22:29:37Z")
I was pretty sure Kerry was going to beat Bush right up to election day. ---
**Author:** ![cckerberos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@cckerberos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cckerberos)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2012, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/46 "2012-09-18T23:04:11Z")
> [@leftfield6](#): > > Yes, it would be “hasty” to put this one in the win column for Obama yet, although I eagerly await all the crow to be served up the day after an Obama win. It will be delicious. > > 🆒 Huh? I could see someone saying this about a Romney victory, but that Obama was going to be reelected would seem to have been the conventional wisdom for quite a while. ---
**Author:** ![Typo\_Negative](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/typo_negative/32/484_2.png) [@Typo\_Negative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Typo_Negative)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2012, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/47 "2012-09-18T23:11:50Z")
> [@Agent\_Foxtrot](#): > > Among that, it’s recently come out that [Romney’s own campaign staffers are blaming his Chief Strategist for his gaffe-laden campaign](http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2012/09/17/stuart_stevens_romney_strategist_to_blame_for_campaign_missteps_staffers_tell_politico_.html) It is too early to throw in the towel. A lot can happen between now and November. It is certainly NOT to early to fire staffers who have talked out of school. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2012, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/48 "2012-09-19T00:46:18Z")
Hold the phone folks. Citizens United is going to buy ad time to air a 1-hour program called “The Hope and Change” starting Sept 21 and running through Election Day. It highlights former Obama voters who have become disillusioned with the president over the past four years. It’ll air on several local stations and a few select cable channels, and is expected to reach a potential of 130 million viewers. This could be the big-PAC-money game-changer for Romney’s campaign. It’s scheduled to air in the states of…uh…[Indiana, Louisiana, Hawaii and Colorado?](http://beforeitsnews.com/tea-party/2012/09/see-the-hope-and-the-change-by-citizens-united-2456118.html) Seriously? Why not air it in Quebec while they’re at it? And Guatemala? And does it even say anything good about Romney? Anything at all? If this is what these guys think is going to be an effective way to spend their money between now and November 6, I’m suddenly a lot less worried that they have so much of it. I don’t quite dare say “Put a fork in the Mitten Man,” but I’ve definitely got the silverware drawer open. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2012, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/49 "2012-09-19T01:27:33Z")
Romney’s not panicking, at least not yet. If Stuart Stevens gets the pink slip, we can start talking about 2016. [Obama has his own problems](http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/obama-foreign-policy-approval-rating-drops-poll-220449967--election.html). If this video protest nonsense gets worse… > [@JohnT](#): > > Romney still has a sizable advantage over Obama in terms of fundraising, and he will swamp the airwaves in October. No, this isn’t over yet. > > [Romney's Oct Surprise Will Be Legendary - Business Insider](http://www.businessinsider.com/mitt-romneys-october-surprise-is-going-to-be-legendary-2012-9) This. We still have yet to see what all that Super PAC money can really do. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2012, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/50 "2012-09-19T01:40:01Z")
Yes, it is too early to fork him. The moderate post-convention Obama bump (much of which was more a matter of Romney NOT getting a big bump from his own convention) has seemingly levelled off and it’s still 48 days and three debates to go. This is still a fight, not a rout. If Mitt does well in the debates, external events turn for the worse for the incumbent and that stupendous campaign funds war chest is well placed, it’s still in his reach. ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2012, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/51 "2012-09-19T02:30:59Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Also, Gallup reports that [Obama has lost his convention bounce](http://www.businessinsider.com/gallup-tracking-poll-obama-vs-romney-2012-9). [Counterpoint.](http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-leads-romney-poll-nbc-wsj-2012-9) I think it’s not quite time to stick a fork in Romney, but that time is not far off. ---
**Author:** ![Andiethewestie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ba9def/32.png) [@Andiethewestie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andiethewestie)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2012, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/52 "2012-09-19T02:48:03Z")
An even better pie graph! > **[Here Are The 47% Of The Population Who Don't Pay Federal Income Tax](https://www.businessinsider.com/mitt-romneys-47-who-are-dependent-on-the-government-2012-9)** ---
**Author:** ![AnalogSignal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/analogsignal/32/1085_2.png) [@AnalogSignal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AnalogSignal)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2012, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/53 "2012-09-19T03:26:05Z")
> **[Obama Widens Lead in Polls as Romney Faces Challenges](https://www.cnbc.com/2012/09/18/obama-widens-lead-in-polls-as-romney-faces-challenges.html)** > > President Obama has widened his lead over Mitt Romney, according to the latest NBC/WSJ poll. The results come as Romney struggles to explain remarks deriding Obama supporters in a leaked video. > [@](#): > > In the poll, Obama led Romney by 50 percent to 45 percent among Americans judged “likely” to vote by Peter Hart and Bill McInturff, who conducted the NBC/WSJ survey. > . > . > . > In the survey, Obama’s overall job approval also hit the 50 percent mark, which political analysts generally consider an important sign of an incumbent’s ability to win re-election. ---
**Author:** ![davidm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidm/32/225_2.png) [@davidm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davidm)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2012, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/54 "2012-09-19T03:55:54Z")
For whatever it’s worth, Intrade currently has Obama at 68.3%. [http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474](http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474) ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2012, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/55 "2012-09-19T17:10:52Z")
> [@snowthx](#): > > In my mind, Romney should start to pivot to the center now (instead of after the election - if he were to win). He should put the gaffes behind him and come out with details of a more moderate tax plan, soften his criticism of Obama, and explain with more depth how he would handle the economy. As was stated upthread - not being Obama is not working out. How many people could he win over that way, vs. the number who would figure it was simply someone with no core values? Wouldn’t this just invite more “Will the real Romney please stand up?” ads? ---
**Author:** ![snowthx](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowthx/32/10660_2.png) [@snowthx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snowthx)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2012, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/56 "2012-09-19T18:49:53Z")
> [@TokyoBayer](#): > > How many people could he win over that way, vs. the number who would figure it was simply someone with no core values? Wouldn’t this just invite more “Will the real Romney please stand up?” ads? Yes, you are right. I was discounting the excessive “flip-flopping” baggage he brings into the equation. If he did not have that, be may have had more room to accomodate more moderate views as the campaign went on. But he has painted himself into a corner and a step in any direction other than to the right will result in a swat to the nose with a rolled-up newspaper from his base. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2012, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/57 "2012-09-19T19:11:02Z")
538 reports no uptick for Obama at all so far. As outrageous as Romney’s comments were, it appears many people have no problem with the idea of the President who doesn’t care about half the population. Having a 25% chance of victory, as Nate Silver predicts, 7 weeks before the election is a damn sight from being “done.” There is plenty of time left. The willingness of Obama supporters to write Romney off baffles me. This is how elections are lost. The first rule of campaigning is that you play it hard right down to the last minute; you never let up, ever, never assume victory. Romney is very much in the race; he is an underdog, but he’s nowhere near beaten. This is the political equivalent of an NFL game with a score of 21-7 midway through the fourth quarter; you’d be a fool to let up at that point. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2012, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/58 "2012-09-19T19:29:49Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > The willingness of Obama supporters to write Romney off baffles me. More eagerness than willingness, I think. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2012, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/59 "2012-09-19T19:32:53Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > 538 reports no uptick for Obama at all so far. As outrageous as Romney’s comments were, it appears many people have no problem with the idea of the President who doesn’t care about half the population. > > Having a 25% chance of victory, as Nate Silver predicts, 7 weeks before the election is a damn sight from being “done.” There is plenty of time left. > > The willingness of Obama supporters to write Romney off baffles me. This is how elections are lost. The first rule of campaigning is that you play it hard right down to the last minute; you never let up, ever, never assume victory. Romney is very much in the race; he is an underdog, but he’s nowhere near beaten. This is the political equivalent of an NFL game with a score of 21-7 midway through the fourth quarter; you’d be a fool to let up at that point. Its hubris. They have so internalized the denigration of Mittens Romney that they no longer even notice when they belittle him. ---
**Author:** ![Agent\_Foxtrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9fc29f/32.png) [@Agent\_Foxtrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Agent_Foxtrot)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2012, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/60 "2012-09-19T20:26:43Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > 538 reports no uptick for Obama at all so far. As outrageous as Romney’s comments were, it appears many people have no problem with the idea of the President who doesn’t care about half the population. Well, I imagine that most people only care if the President to cares about _their_ half of the population. Turning the tables, I’m sure Joe Sixpack wouldn’t lose a wink of sleep if he found out Obama cared little for the wealthiest Americans. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=4)