# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 31
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2012, 7:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/602 "2012-10-11T07:35:41Z")
This is the biggest problem for Obama. He’s way behind with independents: Fueling his current polling surge, Mitt Romney’s numbers with indies are just getting remarkably good. a. IBD/ITP poll released today: Romney 52% Obama 34%. b. Pew poll, released yesterday: Romney 46% Obama 42%. c. Politico/GW poll, released yesterday: Romney 51% Obama 35%. d. CNN, released last week: Romney 49% Obama 41%. e. National Journal, released October 3: Romney 49% Obama 41%. [http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/10/romney-up-huge-with-independents.html](http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/10/romney-up-huge-with-independents.html) It has been a long time since a Presidential candidate lost independents by a big margin yet won the election. Not since the days where Democrats had a dominant registration advantage thanks to the South. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2012, 8:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/603 "2012-10-11T08:27:19Z")
Quinnipiac state polls: Virginia: Obama leads 51-46 Wisconsin: Obama 50-47 Colorado: Romney 48-47 Another set of OK polls for Obama with a welcome 5 point lead in Virginia partly balanced by a worrying 3 points in Wisconsin. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2012, 8:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/604 "2012-10-11T08:55:55Z")
However, with Romney up 1.5 nationally now, it’s doubtful that Obama will maintain leads in Ohio or Virginia. Either Romney must fall behind in the national polls, or Obama must fall behind in the swing state polls. Romney will not win by 1.5 points and lose the electoral vote. ---
**Author:** ![2ManyTacos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/2/3da27b/32.png) [@2ManyTacos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2ManyTacos)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2012, 9:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/605 "2012-10-11T09:29:52Z")
Eh, whatever bounce that Romney appears to have gotten out of his debate appears to be tapering off nationally anyway, and as long as Biden is able to beat Ryan tonight that’ll probably halt any further surge from Romney. I will concede, though, that Obama can’t afford another lopsided debate defeat. ---
**Author:** ![gamerunknown](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/6bbea6/32.png) [@gamerunknown](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gamerunknown)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2012, 9:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/606 "2012-10-11T09:30:06Z")
> [@interface2x](#): > > Still just a link to Firefox. Derp, sorry. [Here](http://www.gallup.com/poll/116677/presidential-approval-ratings-gallup-historical-statistics-trends.aspx)’s the link I was referring to. [Obama](http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/gallup-daily-obama-job-approval.aspx) by no means has the lowest average approval rating of any US president and in fact is trending up (though he did start with near universal approval). His first term lowest so far has troughed at 38%, meaning only Eisenhower and JFK beat him in terms of consistently avoiding disapproval (and both with much higher marginal tax rates!). It’s worth keeping in mind that a subsection of the American population (extremists on either side) will always vehemently oppose a president no matter what and fewer than half of polled Americans will have voted for the president at any time. Sometimes it’s referred to as the crazy 27%, but 90% of Americans approved of Daddy W.'s job record at one point… and he didn’t get reelected. Hrmm. > [@adaher](#): > > Ah, you were referring to internationally. Okay, sure, he builds consensus. And as we saw in Libya, that gets people killed. Acting sooner would have been much better for Libyans. Same is going on in Syria. I actually hope Obama has already decided not to act in Syria, because if he’s waiting for european approval before going in, while thousands of Syrians die, that’s not a positive thing. and do you agree with [Romney that the US should be arming Syrian rebels](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-19874429)? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2012, 9:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/607 "2012-10-11T09:37:55Z")
> [@2ManyTacos](#): > > Eh, whatever bounce that Romney appears to have gotten out of his debate appears to be tapering off nationally anyway, and as long as Biden is able to beat Ryan tonight that’ll probably halt any further surge from Romney. I will concede, though, that Obama can’t afford another lopsided debate defeat. No signs of tapering yet. Romney was at +0.8 Monday, +1.0 Tuesday, and +1.5 Wednesday. A bit early to say it’s tapering. Let’s see what tomorrow brings. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2012, 10:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/608 "2012-10-11T10:43:00Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Do you think anyone who would support banning abortions (in most cases) or homosexual marriage (I assume Huckabee was talking about one or the other) is a “theocrat”? Only if they are calling for a Constitutional ban on abortion. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2012, 11:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/609 "2012-10-11T11:18:47Z")
> [@2ManyTacos](#): > > Eh, whatever bounce that Romney appears to have gotten out of his debate appears to be tapering off nationally anyway, and as long as Biden is able to beat Ryan tonight that’ll probably halt any further surge from Romney. I will concede, though, that Obama can’t afford another lopsided debate defeat. The thing about Biden is that he’s a loose cannon. He’s a smart man who is prone to saying extremely stupid things in public, so he could stomp Ryan or he could shoot himself in both feet before inserting them into his own mouth. I suspect that a Biden win will have less effect on Obama’s campaign than a Biden loss given that the VP debate is less of a boost for the incumbent; the bigger effect will be down to how Ryan performs and whether he avoids any major gaffes. ---
**Author:** ![2ManyTacos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/2/3da27b/32.png) [@2ManyTacos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2ManyTacos)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2012, 11:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/610 "2012-10-11T11:43:27Z")
Well, the thing that I think most of the democratic base is expecting is out of the Ryan and Biden debate is for Biden to basically go out as the attack dog and essentially eviscerate Ryan. I mean, he really is the best debater this cycle next to Romney, so as long as he can avoid any gaffes this debate could do some real damage to the Romney ticket. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2012, 12:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/611 "2012-10-11T12:04:19Z")
Having watched Biden, I think he’ll do well, but evisceration isn’t his thing. He’s a serious man who talks seriously about policy. I think the Ryan-Biden debate will be the most informative of the debates, but it’s unlikely to be a fight so much as a seminar. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2012, 12:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/612 "2012-10-11T12:42:13Z")
> [@bengangmo](#): > > the killing of the Ambassador sucked. > > But what was a win was the events in Libya AFTER his killing - look to the reaction. If this doesn’t describe a win for soft power I don’t know what does. I’m hoping we don’t have to endure too many more such “wins”. > [@bengangmo](#): > > One who at least tries to build consensus as opposed to Bush, Romney and co cowboy attitude. It is difficult to see Obama as more of a “consensus builder” than Bush, though the policies he rams through are generally smarter. And you need some new cliches to replace the “cowboy” crap. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2012, 12:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/613 "2012-10-11T12:56:15Z")
> [@Jackmannii](#): > > I’m hoping we don’t have to endure too many more such “wins”.It is difficult to see Obama as more of a “consensus builder” than Bush, though the policies he rams through are generally smarter. Seriously? Bush ran roughshod over allies and enemies alike. Remember the “Coalition of the Willing” [sic]? What has Obama done to compare to that? ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2012, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/614 "2012-10-11T12:58:18Z")
Biden is practically a gaffe generator. I would spend the entire VP debate cringing, so I think I’ll just catch the highlights afterwards. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2012, 1:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/615 "2012-10-11T13:00:03Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > However, with Romney up 1.5 nationally now, it’s doubtful that Obama will maintain leads in Ohio or Virginia. To paraphrase Inigo Montoya – you keep referring to the national polls. I do not think you understand how the election works. There is no national election for president; there are just 51 state elections. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2012, 1:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/616 "2012-10-11T13:27:23Z")
True, but again, Romney will not win the popular vote by 1.5 points yet lose the election. Never gonna happen. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2012, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/617 "2012-10-11T13:29:58Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > True, but again, Romney will not win the popular vote by 1.5 points yet lose the election. Never gonna happen. You seem to be assuming that state polls will eventually follow the national polls. Of course, the reverse may be true. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2012, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/618 "2012-10-11T13:39:37Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Biden is practically a gaffe generator. I would spend the entire VP debate cringing, so I think I’ll just catch the highlights afterwards. Not in debates. ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2012, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/619 "2012-10-11T14:01:05Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > If Romney wins the popular vote by a point (his current lead in the RCP average of general election polls) or more, he’ll almost certainly win the electoral college as well. That was my point. All the discussion of the electoral college really only matters if the popular vote margin is razor thin. Look at 2000, it was 48.4% to 47.9%. Yes, the wider the popular vote margin, the less important the EC map is. You don’t even have to look at it if one candidate is ahead by enough popular vote points, whatever that number might be. So, one could look at that site and say, as you do, that Romney is in a better position, because he has that one point lead, or one could look at the EC map there and say Obama is in a better position, because he’s closer to 270 and only needs a few states that he still has a decent lead in to get there. I might ask, if your one point margin is enough to assure Romney of a win, why isn’t he doing better on the EC map? But I wouldn’t ask that because I could imagine various reasons why the two don’t “agree”, such as different polling firms being used for the state-by-state polls and the general election. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2012, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/620 "2012-10-11T14:07:12Z")
> [@kaylasdad99](#): > > I disagree. The infection of the Party by those who would turn the USA into a theocratic plutocracy is a done deal. The Party must ultimately be obliterated, and the cancer removed from the body politic. The political philosophy of “smallest government necessary to adequately perform legitimate functions of government” must be handed off to a new political party, one that doesn’t have the cancer that now infects the Republican Party. Who needs a new one? The Libertarian Party already exists. > [@kaylasdad99](#): > > Frankly, wish to work toward an America where theocrats, plutocrats, or theocratic plutocrats have no political safe haven, just as I don’t want Lyndon Larouche, the KKK or the erstwhile members of the White Aryan Resistance to have one. I believe that all of these individuals, have a fundamental hatred for what America stands for. It doesn’t “stand for” anything, it’s just a country. What does France or Britain or Japan stand for? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2012, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/621 "2012-10-11T14:14:07Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Ah, you were referring to internationally. Okay, sure, he builds consensus. And as we saw in Libya, that gets people killed. Acting sooner would have been much better for Libyans. Same is going on in Syria. I actually hope Obama has already decided not to act in Syria, because if he’s waiting for european approval before going in, while thousands of Syrians die, that’s not a positive thing. 😕 “Acting sooner” how – sending in actual American troops? In Libya, Obama was faced with a situation where there was an ongoing civil war, and he had a chance to apply just enough pressure to keep the favored side in it viable long enough to win it, and that’s how it worked out. Now we have the desired result there, with no American troops on the ground to be targets of resentment/resistance/terrorism and no need to debate when or how to pull them out again. Syria . . . [is a very different situation.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=641072) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=30) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=32)