# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 33
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2012, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/642 "2012-10-11T21:24:44Z")
> [@Fiddle\_Peghead](#): > > Eh, Silver has Obama up by 1.6, so don’t start counting any chickens just yet. +0.9% in the Now Cast at the moment. I have a feeling it’s leveling off now, though. ---
**Author:** ![JoelUpchurch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f05b48/32.png) [@JoelUpchurch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JoelUpchurch)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2012, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/643 "2012-10-12T03:16:17Z")
I thought Biden did pretty good. Maybe not enough to reverse the trend, but it might stop the hemorrhaging, like Silver was talking about. **Biden’s Debate Mission: Whip Up Democrats to Blunt Romney’s Gains** [http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/10/bidens-debate-mission-whip-up-democrats-to-blunt-romneys-gains/](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/10/bidens-debate-mission-whip-up-democrats-to-blunt-romneys-gains/) We won’t see it in the polls until next week. It looks to me like it is going to come down to Ohio. If the President blows his lead there, I don’t see him making up the difference in another state. ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2012, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/644 "2012-10-12T03:29:08Z")
> [@JoelUpchurch](#): > > The people that think that a Romney presidency would lead to a theocracy haven’t looked at what Romney actually did as governor of Massachusetts. Romney may be lying, but he is probably lying to the conservative base. He would be to the right of Obama, but to the left of George Bush. As Obama pointed out in the 1st presidential debate, Romney has not shown a lot of ability to stand up to the more extreme elements of his party…or even any desire to. And, there will be pressures on him like nobody’s business to make sure that he stays in line. If he can’t stand up to the pressure so far, he ain’t seen nothing yet. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2012, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/645 "2012-10-12T18:20:59Z")
A freak-out inducing poll by Mason-Dixon for Dems in Florida with a seven-point Romney lead. Another decent day for him in the national polls and a few state polls as well. You could make a reasonable case that the race is 50-50 right now. Personally I still think Obama is ahead and will win but it’s getting uncomfortably tight for him. It will be interesting to see if the VP debate will turn things around a bit. It will probably require a strong debate performance by Obama and/or some mistakes by Romney, but IMO at least one of these is likely. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2012, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/646 "2012-10-12T18:37:07Z")
Mason-Dixon’s Florida numbers are frequently weird. Last month they only had Obama up by a point. ---
**Author:** ![JoelUpchurch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f05b48/32.png) [@JoelUpchurch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JoelUpchurch)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2012, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/647 "2012-10-12T19:01:18Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Not irrelevant. Largely irrelevant. Whether there are 40 or 50 Republicans doesn’t make a great deal of difference in who Obama will appoint. > > In other words, the difference between the next judge being more like Scalia and the next judge being more like Kagan is a matter of the Presidency, not the Senate. I still don’t understand how you think the Senate is irrelvant. The president can nominate judges, but it doesn’t mean anything unless the Senate approves them. For executive positions it is a little different, since there are things like recess appointments. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2012, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/648 "2012-10-12T19:04:19Z")
> [@JoelUpchurch](#): > > I still don’t understand how you think the Senate is irrelvant. The president can nominate judges, but it doesn’t mean anything unless the Senate approves them. For executive positions it is a little different, since there are things like recess appointments. Because while the Senate can prevent a Supreme Court appointment in theory, in practice enough Senators on both sides of the aisle believe that the President gets some leeway in finding a suitable Justice that any nomination within the reasonable mainstream will be successful. The exceptions, when they occur, happen because of intraparty disputes (e.g., Harriet Miers) or because the candidate is seen as outside the judicial mainstream (e.g., Robert Bork). In short, the Senate might Bork the occasional nominee, but someone like Kagan or Alito will not be Borked. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2012, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/649 "2012-10-12T19:28:18Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > A freak-out inducing poll by Mason-Dixon for Dems in Florida with a seven-point Romney lead. Another decent day for him in the national polls and a few state polls as well. You could make a reasonable case that the race is 50-50 right now. > > Personally I still think Obama is ahead and will win but it’s getting uncomfortably tight for him. It will be interesting to see if the VP debate will turn things around a bit. It will probably require a strong debate performance by Obama and/or some mistakes by Romney, but IMO at least one of these is likely. My purely unscientific crystal ball gut feeling is that the hemorrhaging has stopped. Obama will have lost some swing states he thought he had (Florida, Colorado) but will hang onto enough (Ohio, Virginia) that he’ll squeak by. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2012, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/650 "2012-10-12T20:46:31Z")
I feel pretty confident in saying Obama will win neither Ohio nor Virginia. In both states he is underwater with Independents, and has no path to victory losing them by (in some cases) double digit margins without seeing an absolutely stellar Democratic turnout. Unfortunately, Democratic enthusiasm is way down from 2008, so the idea that Obama will see record breaking Democratic turnout is a bit farfetched. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2012, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/651 "2012-10-12T20:47:28Z")
Then you can make a killing in the prediction markets right now. Run, don’t walk! ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2012, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/652 "2012-10-12T20:53:19Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > I feel pretty confident in saying Obama will win neither Ohio nor Virginia. I don’t know, there’s still a lot of time before the election. Where do you get your information on independent voting and Democratic enthusiasm? ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2012, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/653 "2012-10-12T20:57:52Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > I feel pretty confident in saying Obama will win neither Ohio nor Virginia. In both states he is underwater with Independents, and has no path to victory losing them by (in some cases) double digit margins without seeing an absolutely stellar Democratic turnout. Unfortunately, Democratic enthusiasm is way down from 2008, so the idea that Obama will see record breaking Democratic turnout is a bit farfetched. While I think the Obama supporters have been overoptimistic, I think you’re being a little overoptimistic on Ohio. I’ll give you even money on Ohio. Of course, I think Obama is still a slight favorite there, 60-40, so I think that bet favors me. If you’re so confident, I’m happy to go split the difference and go even money on it. For that matter, if **Bricker** wants to win his $100 back, he can get in on the action instead. Fair bet. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2012, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/654 "2012-10-12T23:32:29Z")
538’s Now Cast down to a 0.3% popular vote lead, and a nail-biting 272-262 electoral college finish. It’s 56% to 44% if the election were held today. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2012, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/655 "2012-10-13T02:38:12Z")
I wouldn’t count Obama out in Virginia, Florida, or Ohio. But then again, I wouldn’t count Romney out in Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2012, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/656 "2012-10-13T02:58:27Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I wouldn’t count Obama out in Virginia, Florida, or Ohio. But then again, I wouldn’t count Romney out in Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania. I think Pennsylvania and Michigan are a stretch. Hell, if Pennsylvania goes red, the Democrats are fucked. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2012, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/657 "2012-10-13T03:02:06Z")
Well, in 2008 North Carolina and Indiana were a stretch. If things turn decisively against Obama, perhaps because of two more really bad debate performances, then Michigan and Pennsylvania could be this cycle’s North Carolina and Indiana. And even if Romney won PA and MI, I’d still heavily favor the Democratic Senate candidates in those states. I don’t think Romney’s going to carry over any GOP senate candidates who weren’t already very close. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2012, 3:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/658 "2012-10-13T03:38:12Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Well, in 2008 North Carolina and Indiana were a stretch. Indiana was definitely a surprise. North Carolina, though, at this point last election, was polling moderately for Obama. [Cite](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search?updated-max=2008-10-11T14:26:00-04:00&max-results=10&start=20&by-date=false). At election time, Obama was ahead in NC. So NC going blue wasn’t exactly a shocker. Penn or Mich going red this election, that’d be a coup. If Penn goes red, I’m assuming Romney will have run all the other toss-up states, and we’re looking at 330+EV for Romney. I think that’s a long longshot. ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2012, 4:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/659 "2012-10-13T04:03:58Z")
I am actually not at all shocked to see 538’s model closing in quickly. As much as I detest Romney and the republicans in general, Obama will deserve to lose this election if he doesn’t do much, MUCH better in the 2nd and 3rd debates. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2012, 4:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/660 "2012-10-13T04:33:51Z")
> [@drewtwo99](#): > > I am actually not at all shocked to see 538’s model closing in quickly. As much as I detest Romney and the republicans in general, Obama will deserve to lose this election if he doesn’t do much, MUCH better in the 2nd and 3rd debates. I’m afraid you’re right. At least Biden didn’t commit some major blunder in the VP debate. ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2012, 6:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/661 "2012-10-13T06:33:16Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > I’m afraid you’re right. At least Biden didn’t commit some major blunder in the VP debate. Unfortunately, like the office itself, the vice presidential debate isn’t worth a bucket of warm piss. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=32) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=34)