# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 35
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2012, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/682 "2012-10-14T03:23:04Z")
> [@drewtwo99](#): > > Debates are never, ever won or lost on content. What’s stupid and incomprehensible is that a 2-hour PERFORMANCE should apparently have the potential to affect the election so profoundly. The candidates’ experience, policies, history, resume, track record, and everything else goes out the window because one man talked louder and waved his arms more than the other. Ironically, Obama was criticized for being cool, but some have lauded Ryan for being cool. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2012, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/683 "2012-10-14T03:49:05Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > I can’t for the life of me comprehend why one debate performance has had such an effect. This doesn’t make one shred of sense to me. To me the candidates’ debate performances carry about as much weight as their hair styles or ties. It’s like the whole country watched with the sound off and isn’t giving any weight to the content of what was said. So Romney was more energetic-- big fucking deal. His ONLY job is running for President. The President HAS a day job that requires a lot of energy. To focus this much on that couple of hours is just plain stupid. But then, the unwashed masses ARE stupid. That is all. There was foreshadowing. The Republican debates during the primary season were unusually important, causing candidates to rise or fall based on their performances. And while I see your point, I can’t help to recall that many rather smart people declared Bobby Jindal’s future ruined by a bad speech. I’d say a debate is a better insight into a candidate’s fitness for office than a speech. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2012, 4:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/684 "2012-10-14T04:44:23Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > …I’d say a debate is a better insight into a candidate’s fitness for office than a speech. Any particular reason? Why would that be preferable to being able to write a good essay? Or, far as that goes, a good speech. IIRC, Stephen Douglas was accounted a much better debater, but now is remembered mostly because of Lincoln. Did you see any of the preliminary debates, like Gingrich? He has some major debating skills, which almost obscure the fact that he’s batshit. And if he were elected president, I would make a straight run for the border before the Canadians close it. ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2012, 5:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/685 "2012-10-14T05:12:12Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > What’s stupid and incomprehensible is that a 2-hour PERFORMANCE should apparently have the potential to affect the election so profoundly. The candidates’ experience, policies, history, resume, track record, and everything else goes out the window because one man talked louder and waved his arms more than the other. > > Ironically, Obama was criticized for being cool, but some have lauded Ryan for being cool. It shouldn’t be surprising at all. Obama wasn’t ahead in the polls prior to the debate because people agreed with his policies or ideology. He was polling well because he connected with people better than Romney, he cared about people more than Romney, etc. Frankly, this is exactly why I supported Obama over Clinton in the primaries in 2008. To me, Obama cared way more, he had a more sympathetic past, and was generally much more inspirational. Policy-wise, they were almost identical. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2012, 5:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/686 "2012-10-14T05:35:12Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Any particular reason? Why would that be preferable to being able to write a good essay? Or, far as that goes, a good speech. IIRC, Stephen Douglas was accounted a much better debater, but now is remembered mostly because of Lincoln. > > Did you see any of the preliminary debates, like Gingrich? He has some major debating skills, which almost obscure the fact that he’s batshit. And if he were elected president, I would make a straight run for the border before the Canadians close it. Debate skills don’t trump a candidate’s record, but they certainly tell you more than a speech written for the candidate by someone else. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2012, 6:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/687 "2012-10-14T06:40:10Z")
Best is an analysis of their policies and the honesty of their presentation. Case study: GWBush and his administration. His tax policy was designed to thwart Forbes in the primary: it was a budget-buster, turning surpluses into a sea of red ink. And he misrepresented its cost by skipping over _$300 billion dollars_ of interest payments due to paying the debt down slower, in addition to all sorts of accounting tricks. Given his mendacity about that, is it surprising that he would shape intelligence around pre-determined conditions in order to railroad the nation into the Iraq War. Dishonesty in one realm follows from dishonesty in another. If you want to judge a candidate’s character, study their presentation of their policies. If you don’t care, then don’t pretend that you do. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2012, 6:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/688 "2012-10-14T06:58:18Z")
Hmmm, if only there were some forum where candidates could challenge each other on that. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2012, 8:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/689 "2012-10-14T08:01:15Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Hmmm, if only there were some forum where candidates could challenge each other on that. I have six studies that say that there’s no such forum. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2012, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/690 "2012-10-14T17:40:25Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Debate skills don’t trump a candidate’s record, but they certainly tell you more than a speech written for the candidate by someone else. So, what you are saying is the fact that Romney lied through his teeth in the first debate in order to “win” shows us a lot about his character? I agree. ---
**Author:** ![filmore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7993a0/32.png) [@filmore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmore)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2012, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/691 "2012-10-14T19:26:45Z")
I wonder if the debate was useful at swinging uninformed voters. I can’t imagine an informed voter ditching Obama and switching to Romney based on what they heard at the debate. But if you’re uninformed, you might think that Romney had some pretty good ideas and that he would do a good job. The poll number swing was so drastic this time because there was such a big difference in performances. Usually the debates are pretty boring with each guy doing a pretty similar job. This time you had a guy putting on a pretty good show and the other guy taking a nap. So if you are an uninformed voter, you may be basing your vote on what you saw that night. Unfortunately, I don’t see Obama swinging many of those people back to his side. Once they’ve made a choice, I think they would be more likely to stick with their choice than switch. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2012, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/692 "2012-10-14T22:43:40Z")
> [@jshore](#): > > So, what you are saying is the fact that Romney lied through his teeth in the first debate in order to “win” shows us a lot about his character? I agree. Did he lie more than Obama? No. That’s just whining. But let’s say for the sake of argument that he lied his ass off. Obama is supposed to challenge him on it. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2012, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/693 "2012-10-14T22:45:05Z")
> [@filmore](#): > > I wonder if the debate was useful at swinging uninformed voters. I can’t imagine an informed voter ditching Obama and switching to Romney based on what they heard at the debate. But if you’re uninformed, you might think that Romney had some pretty good ideas and that he would do a good job. The poll number swing was so drastic this time because there was such a big difference in performances. Usually the debates are pretty boring with each guy doing a pretty similar job. This time you had a guy putting on a pretty good show and the other guy taking a nap. So if you are an uninformed voter, you may be basing your vote on what you saw that night. Unfortunately, I don’t see Obama swinging many of those people back to his side. Once they’ve made a choice, I think they would be more likely to stick with their choice than switch. The voters it swung were voters who wanted to replace Obama but needed to know that Romney was an acceptable alternative. And the swing was only drastic in the context of a very stable race. Romney’s bounce was only 4-5 points. ---
**Author:** ![2ManyTacos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/2/3da27b/32.png) [@2ManyTacos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2ManyTacos)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2012, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/694 "2012-10-14T23:04:52Z")
Don’t really have much more to say other than that the [latest polling](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html) in Ohio is awfully comforting to me. I don’t see how the Hell Romney is going to erase his deficit in that state, and if he loses Ohio, then he has probably lost the election. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2012, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/695 "2012-10-14T23:15:30Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Did he lie more than Obama? No. That’s just whining. But let’s say for the sake of argument that he lied his ass off. Obama is supposed to challenge him on it. “You fucked up! You trusted us!” ---
**Author:** ![Biggirl](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biggirl/32/3294_2.png) [@Biggirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biggirl)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2012, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/696 "2012-10-14T23:22:34Z")
[I always thought that early voters were military types](http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/14/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE8991FR20121014) but I guess I was wrong. No wonder the GOP tried hard to shut it down. This makes me wonder. Who are the early voters? Students? The disabled? A large part has got to be military, no? I’m a little surprised by the wide gap and am hoping it is the start of things to come. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2012, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/697 "2012-10-14T23:42:49Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > But let’s say for the sake of argument that he lied his ass off. Obama is supposed to challenge him on it. Also, it can be pointed out after the debate. Which is what I and others are doing. But oddly, Obama _did_ challenge him on it. > [@Three Obama quotes from Kevin Drum](#): > > ``` > #1: Now, Governor Romney’s proposal that he has been promoting for 18 months calls for a $5 trillion tax cut, on top of $2 trillion of additional spending for our military. And he is saying that he is going to pay for it by closing loopholes and deductions. The problem is that he’s been asked over 100 times how you would close those deductions and loopholes, and he hasn’t been able to identify them. [Etc.] > > #2: And the fact is that if you are lowering the rates the way you described, Governor, then it is not possible to come up with enough deductions and loopholes that only affect high-income individuals to avoid either raising the deficit or burdening the middle class. It’s — it’s math. It’s arithmetic. > > #3: It just reminds me of, you know, he says that he’s going to close deductions and loopholes for his tax plan. That’s how it’s going to be paid for, but we don’t know the details....And at some point, I think the American people have to ask themselves, **is the reason that Governor Romney is keeping all these plans to replace secret because they’re too good? Is it because that somehow middle-class families are going to benefit too much from them?** > > ``` Emphasis added. The problem is prepping for a shape-shifting politician is hard and Obama has pronounced conciliatory instincts. He should do better during the Town Hall debates. If he doesn’t, the race could tighten further. As an aside, public presentations without the benefit of charts tend towards bullshit. You can see that on Meet the Press et al. Here at this message board, it’s pretty easy to call out posters who constantly make unsubstantiated factual claims without citation: they are pegged as unreliable. On TV though, it’s a lot easier to just provide empty jabber. This applies to weakly moderated debates as well as Sunday talk shows. What I honestly don’t get is what Romney’s defenders get out of all of this, unless they are hedge fund managers. I haven’t seen anybody explain why a financier should pay 15% on his taxes, while the middle class -and CEOs in manufacturing or software- should pay 35% or whatever. That’s a big difference. Sure, Romney was a successful man – but an inspection of his record shows a lot less than meets the eye. The best appeal I can think of is for a Tea Partier who supports the loons in the Republican House of Representatives and trusts them to keep Romney in line. So it’s not that Romney has personal appeal: it’s more like he’s the front man. Biggirl: IIRC, 20% vote early now. So whatever the demographics were 10 years ago, they are probably different now. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2012, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/698 "2012-10-15T00:04:25Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The voters it swung were voters who wanted to replace Obama but needed to know that Romney was an acceptable alternative. Perhaps. Funny they weren’t paying attention all those months previous, though. I wonder, given a better performance by Obama, what they would’ve done then. Held their nose for Romney? Stayed home? Or was Romney’s performance good enough in a vacuum that they would’ve gone with him anyway? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2012, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/699 "2012-10-15T03:48:26Z")
> [@2ManyTacos](#): > > Don’t really have much more to say other than that the [latest polling](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html) in Ohio is awfully comforting to me. I don’t see how the Hell Romney is going to erase his deficit in that state, and if he loses Ohio, then he has probably lost the election. Obama’s up by 1.7. And Romney does have a path without Ohio, although it’s harder. But as I keep saying, Romney will not win the popular vote by more than a percentage point and still lose the electoral vote. And the national vote polls are more accurate than the state vote polls. If you click on the links that show the final polls in Ohio from 2004 and 2008, the pollsters missed the final results by pretty widely varying margins. A 1.7 point lead in an aggregate of state polls is nothing, just means Obama is slightly favored. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2012, 3:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/700 "2012-10-15T03:50:24Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Perhaps. Funny they weren’t paying attention all those months previous, though. > > I wonder, given a better performance by Obama, what they would’ve done then. Held their nose for Romney? Stayed home? Or was Romney’s performance good enough in a vacuum that they would’ve gone with him anyway? They were paying attention: to a biased media and an incumbent vastly outspending his opponent and defining him. That’s why debates rock. They make all those advantages go away. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2012, 4:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/701 "2012-10-15T04:53:00Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > I feel pretty confident in saying Obama will win neither Ohio nor Virginia. In both states he is underwater with Independents, and has no path to victory losing them by (in some cases) double digit margins without seeing an absolutely stellar Democratic turnout. Unfortunately, Democratic enthusiasm is way down from 2008, so the idea that Obama will see record breaking Democratic turnout is a bit farfetched. Yeah if the election were held right this minute he is probably a slight underdog in Virginia (remember independent in some of these places means Tea Party) but he was ahead by 5% the night before the debate. At this point I don’t think anyone can take anything for granted (I only wish it didn’t take the horrible results of a terrible debate for Obama to figure out to take this thing more seriously). [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=34) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=36)