# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 38
**Author:** ![Polerius](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/d78d45/32.png) [@Polerius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Polerius)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2012, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/742 "2012-10-16T21:11:12Z")
> [@MsWhatsit](#): > > I sort of feel like the people who were going to be influenced by a great Romney performance/bad Obama performance in a debate, already were. I’m not sure there are a lot of people left who are like, “Welllll, Obama got crushed in the first debate but now that he’s been crushed TWICE, well, that’s sold me.” I could be wrong, of course, but I just don’t think that many votes are still in play. If Obama appears wearing a bib, and starts drooling on it, that might sway some extra voters towards Romney 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2012, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/743 "2012-10-16T21:19:09Z")
[QUOTE=HurricaneDitka] You don’t see any possible outcome that leads to a clear Romney lead? [/QUOTE] Honestly…no. Even a Carter-esque admission on live TV during the debate of a fascination with Playboy isn’t going to give Romney a clear and definite lead. I’ll be surprised if they are even neck and neck going into the election. I just don’t think Romney has what it’s going to take, given that despite a rather anemic economy Obama is still so popular. YMMV of course, but that’s how I see it right now. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2012, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/744 "2012-10-16T21:22:57Z")
> [@Knorf](#): > > True. And ironic, because if Romney won their enthusiasm via the debate, he did so by staking out the most moderate stance since he was governor of MA, rather in distinct contrast to his fighting for conservative credibility as demonstrated in the GOP primaries. Yeah, the irony quotient there was nearly off the charts. My guess is that the rationale there is that Romney is now seen, in right wing circles, as a real candidate and with real potential to win. Sort of like how a lot of left wingers look at Obama…maybe not the candidate they would choose, but one that’s close enough and has a realistic enough chance to win that they get interested in supporting him. I think that, as with left wingers, right wingers understand deep down that they will never get a guy they REALLY want in there. Maybe not Mr. (or Mrs.) Right…but at least Mr./Mrs. Right Now. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2012, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/745 "2012-10-16T21:35:08Z")
Last I checked, Romney’s favoribility ratings were higher than Obama’s so… ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2012, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/746 "2012-10-16T21:37:30Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > There aren’t too many water cooler conversations about Libya and there won’t be any tomorrow. It may resonate with the anti-Obama faction but it’s a bit like preaching to the choir. Yeah, and the “Libya” [thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=665867) here in Elections seems to have died out. I made a few posts today about recent reports regarding the role that the youtube video played in attacks, but the whole story seems to be off the radar now. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2012, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/747 "2012-10-16T21:44:34Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Last I checked, Romney’s favoribility ratings were higher than Obama’s so… [Check again](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/09/mitt-romney-favorability-poll_n_1951127.html): > [@](#): > > **Mitt Romney’s favorability rating reached a new high of 47 percent** in an ABC/_Washington Post_ poll released Tuesday. The number represents a slight rise from his pre-debate image, though the Republican presidential candidate still trails President Barack Obama in terms of favorability. > > Romney’s net favorable rating has moved up 14 points since September among households making less than $50,000 a year, and 20 points among those making between $50,000 and $100,000. He also saw progress with self-identified conservatives, as well as both unmarried men and women.\*\* President Obama, meanwhile, posted a record high of 55 percent favorable in the poll\*\*, up 3 points from before the debate. ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2012, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/748 "2012-10-16T21:48:12Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Last I checked, Romney’s favoribility ratings were higher than Obama’s so… But not [not necessarily](http://www.businessinsider.com/romney-closing-obama-pennsylvania-lead-poll-2012-10) in the swing states… > [@](#): > > [Romney’s] is still divided 46-44 percent. Obama’s favorability in [Pennsylvania] is still strong at 52 percent. ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2012, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/749 "2012-10-16T21:48:29Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Romney’s favorability is better than Obama’s for the first time. It could be the ongoing Libya coverage is hurting Obama’s favorables. Certainly you are aware that the Libya story is almost exclusively a story in the right-wing echo chamber? On the rare occasions it gets mentioned outside of Fox News and talk radio it is when a Romney surrogate brings it up. After a brief discussion, the story goes away again. There’s just nothing to it, it’s a non-story. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2012, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/750 "2012-10-16T22:05:27Z")
> [@Knorf](#): > > True. And ironic, because if Romney won their enthusiasm via the debate, he did so by staking out the most moderate stance since he was governor of MA, rather in distinct contrast to his fighting for conservative credibility as demonstrated in the GOP primaries. What conservative positions did you see Romney change to more moderate ones during the debate? Did his tax plan change dramatically in that 90 minutes? Did he decide that he really does want to keep ObamaCare? I keep seeing references to stuff like “Romney moved to the center during the debate” and I wonder if we watched the same debate. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2012, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/751 "2012-10-16T22:07:41Z")
And I think the discussion on Romney vs Obama’s favorability rating were stemming from this Gallup poll: [Voters Equally Favorable to Romney, Obama](http://www.gallup.com/poll/158045/voters-equally-favorable-candidates-prior-second-debate.aspx) ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2012, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/752 "2012-10-16T23:19:50Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > What conservative positions did you see Romney change to more moderate ones during the debate? Did his tax plan change dramatically in that 90 minutes? Did he decide that he really does want to keep ObamaCare? I keep seeing references to stuff like “Romney moved to the center during the debate” and I wonder if we watched the same debate. Try googling “mitt Romney debates himself”, and check back. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2012, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/753 "2012-10-16T23:31:22Z")
> [@Truman\_Burbank](#): > > Try googling “mitt Romney debates himself”, and check back. I was actually hoping for a more substantive response to that question. For example, on taxes. Here’s [what his website says](http://www.mittromney.com/issues/tax). Did he contradict that during the debate? ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2012, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/754 "2012-10-16T23:34:58Z")
He previously said his plan was to cut rates across the board by 20%. In the debate he said that number takes a backseat to how much money they can raise through eliminating deductions. Since the whole criticism of the plan is that it relies on voodoo economics to make up the difference between reasonable cutting of loopholes and 20%, this is a pretty significant shift. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2012, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/755 "2012-10-16T23:43:43Z")
And even more directly, he said he wouldn’t lower taxes for the wealthy, having previously promised to do so in the primary. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2012, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/756 "2012-10-17T00:03:04Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > I tried to find out what his confidence intervals look like, but I ran out of my 10 article limit on the NY Times. The probability measure essentially provides the confidence interval. Obama is favored to win 285.6 electoral votes as of today. The odds of him winning fewer than 269 (and losing the election) are 36.2%. Or rather, that’s what the model predicts. There’s specification error to consider as well.[1] Sam Wang’s poll-only approach has tended to give Obama better odds, but I’ve been more sympathetic to Silver, who includes fundamentals in his model. This stuff is still an art though. AFAIK, there’s no good way to attach a confidence interval to the probability measure. Well not quite. The confidence intervals around the electoral estimate are derived from 10,000 simulations. You could do _that_ exercise 1000 times, say, and get a range of confidence intervals. But I don’t think it would be especially enlightening, as it wouldn’t capture specification error. [1] One trivial source of specification error is that Obama’s and Romney’s odds appear to be constrained to sum to 100%. Not a big deal now, but in July you could argue that they should have summed to 99.7% or something. ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2012, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/757 "2012-10-17T00:19:09Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > What conservative positions did you see Romney change to more moderate ones during the debate? Did his tax plan change dramatically in that 90 minutes? Did he decide that he really does want to keep ObamaCare? I keep seeing references to stuff like “Romney moved to the center during the debate” and I wonder if we watched the same debate. Well, for example, he claimed that he will keep the provision that forbids insurance companies from not covering pre-existing conditions. However, whenever he says that, his campaign later has to walk away from it and admit that what he is saying is that he won’t repeal the law as it has been since 1996 (i.e., that if you maintain essentially continuous coverage then they can’t not cover pre-existing conditions). Whether you want to call this a change in position or just a bald-faced lie may be a matter of debate. Given that he has done this multiple times now, the intelligent conclusion seems to be that it is the latter. Basically, he is trying to purposely confuse voters about his position. Which lends further credence to what we already know from his long soliloquy in regards to the 47%: That he is a scumbag of the highest order. ---
**Author:** ![MsWhatsit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/eb8c5e/32.png) [@MsWhatsit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MsWhatsit)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2012, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/758 "2012-10-17T00:19:56Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > I tried to find out what his confidence intervals look like, but I ran out of my 10 article limit on the NY Times. If you Google the title of the post, you can get a direct link to the full article. If you come in directly from a Google link, the limit doesn’t apply. ---
**Author:** ![regginbrow](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ba9def/32.png) [@regginbrow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/regginbrow)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2012, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/759 "2012-10-17T00:47:14Z")
> [@MsWhatsit](#): > > If you Google the title of the post, you can get a direct link to the full article. If you come in directly from a Google link, the limit doesn’t apply. This is actually true for any outside link. I have an RSS subscription specifically to 538, which allows me to visit each article without limit. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2012, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/760 "2012-10-17T00:53:07Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > And even more directly, he said he wouldn’t lower taxes for the wealthy, having previously promised to do so in the primary. If he won’t lower their taxes, how are the job creators supposed to create jobs? Wasn’t that the narrative in the primaries? ---
**Author:** ![JoelUpchurch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f05b48/32.png) [@JoelUpchurch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JoelUpchurch)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2012, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/761 "2012-10-17T02:41:42Z")
> [@MsWhatsit](#): > > If you Google the title of the post, you can get a direct link to the full article. If you come in directly from a Google link, the limit doesn’t apply. I added fivethirtyeight to my google reader selection and that seems to get around the 10 article limit. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=37) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=39)