# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 39
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2012, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/762 "2012-10-17T03:03:51Z")
> [@JoelUpchurch](#): > > I added fivethirtyeight to my google reader selection and that seems to get around the 10 article limit. I figured it out by myself the first time I ran into the limit: just delete the weird number appendage it puts on your URL when you’re above your limit and you can read it just fine. ETA: For example, I just tried one of the links and got this in my address bar: [noparse][No Guarantee of Obama Rebound in Second Debate - The New York Times](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/16/no-guarantee-of-obama-rebound-in-second-debate/?gwh=58A02F81496F4510CE736AF50FBD8F0C#more-36168%5B/noparse%5D) delete everything past the last slash and you’re golden. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2012, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/763 "2012-10-17T03:16:00Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > And even more directly, he said he wouldn’t lower taxes for the wealthy, having previously promised to do so in the primary. It’s all explained on [this page](http://www.romneytaxplan.com/). ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2012, 9:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/764 "2012-10-17T09:49:44Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I was actually hoping for a more substantive response to that question. For example, on taxes. Here’s [what his website says](http://www.mittromney.com/issues/tax). Did he contradict that during the debate? So seeing the video clips of Mitt voicing his contrasting stances is somehow not ‘substantive’? What other substance were you hoping for? ---
**Author:** ![Mighty\_Girl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7bcc69/32.png) [@Mighty\_Girl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mighty_Girl)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2012, 10:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/765 "2012-10-17T10:48:41Z")
> [@Truman\_Burbank](#): > > So seeing the video clips of Mitt voicing his contrasting stances is somehow not ‘substantive’? Well, his stances could be pretty wide. ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2012, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/766 "2012-10-17T13:57:06Z")
> [@Mighty\_Girl](#): > > Well, his stances could be pretty wide. No, that was the other Republican. You remember, the Bible-thumping, Family-Values, homophobic, overweight white guy. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2012, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/767 "2012-10-17T15:31:06Z")
SCOTUS has the last word on Ohio early voting - good news for POTUS: [U.S. Supreme Court denies Ohio early-voting appeal; hours set for weekend before election - cleveland.com](http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2012/10/us_supreme_court_denies_husted.html) ---
**Author:** ![muldoonthief](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/muldoonthief/32/3188_2.png) [@muldoonthief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/muldoonthief)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2012, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/768 "2012-10-17T16:49:06Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > SCOTUS has the last word on Ohio early voting - good news for POTUS: [U.S. Supreme Court denies Ohio early-voting appeal; hours set for weekend before election - cleveland.com](http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2012/10/us_supreme_court_denies_husted.html) I know it’s just coincidence, but this quote from the article made my day: > [@](#): > > The cost of Husted’s appeals is not yet known. A spokesman for the Ohio Attorney General’s office said $45,000 has been approved to pay the Washington-based firm Wiley Rein. But the firm had not yet submitted any invoices. > > **Another firm, Bricker and Eckler, so far has submitted an $11,500 invoice for work related to the Obama lawsuit.** ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2012, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/769 "2012-10-17T18:54:53Z")
An eye-popping Gallup tracking poll which shows Romney up by 6. However the other tracking polls tell a different story with Rasmussen having Romney up by 1, Reuters-Ipsos showing Obama up by 3 and Tipp showing Obama up by 2. Anyway obviously the large majority of their calls were before the second debate. The dust should clear in a few days and my guess is Obama will be up by a couple of points in the national polls. Ideally he would like to build a 5-6 point buffer in states like Wisconsin and Iowa and Ohio which are part of his likely winning path and a 2-3 point lead in Colorado and Virginia which are his back-ups. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2012, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/770 "2012-10-17T19:34:44Z")
‘Bricker, of SDMB fame, went on record as saying ‘Ptttttttttttt!’ while sticking out his tongue and making antler hand gestures. Obama and his staff could not be reached for comment…’ ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2012, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/771 "2012-10-17T20:22:29Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > An eye-popping Gallup tracking poll which shows Romney up by 6. However the other tracking polls tell a different story with Rasmussen having Romney up by 1, Reuters-Ipsos showing Obama up by 3 and Tipp showing Obama up by 2. Anyway obviously the large majority of their calls were before the second debate. The dust should clear in a few days and my guess is Obama will be up by a couple of points in the national polls. Ideally he would like to build a 5-6 point buffer in states like Wisconsin and Iowa and Ohio which are part of his likely winning path and a 2-3 point lead in Colorado and Virginia which are his back-ups. Looking at Gallup’s numbers in [more detail](http://www.gallup.com/poll/158048/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx), they show Romney with a massive lead in the South and trailing everywhere else (i.e. a natural “win the popular vote, lose the election” pattern for a Republican). Also, the massive size of the Southern lead for Romney (22 percentage points) and the relatively small leads for Obama elsewhere (4, 4, & 6 percentage points) indicate heavy sampling of the South to get a +6pt Romney total.. Conclusion: fuggedaboutit ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2012, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/772 "2012-10-17T20:31:48Z")
Right, the increase in Romney’s support is mostly from no-longer-wavering white evangelicals in the Confederacy. Not in places that will decide the election. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2012, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/773 "2012-10-17T20:37:14Z")
It would be very interesting if true that Romney’s lead consisted entirely of overperformance in the South, but I wouldn’t be too quick to reach that conclusion. Do we even know the margin of error for those groupings? If you think the 6 points is out of line with the rest of the polling, you’d be right. But a perfectly sufficient explanation is that the poll is simply a statistical outlier. That’s a much more likely possibility than Romney actually being up by 6 overall solely as a consequence of support in the South. ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2012, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/774 "2012-10-17T21:30:08Z")
Just as a reminder, Silver gives Romney only a 3.8% chance as of yesterday to win the popular vote but lose the electoral college. It’s an outlier. That’s the ticket! ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2012, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/775 "2012-10-17T23:02:33Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > Looking at Gallup’s numbers in [more detail](http://www.gallup.com/poll/158048/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx), they show Romney with a massive lead in the South and trailing everywhere else (i.e. a natural “win the popular vote, lose the election” pattern for a Republican). Also, the massive size of the Southern lead for Romney (22 percentage points) and the relatively small leads for Obama elsewhere (4, 4, & 6 percentage points) indicate heavy sampling of the South to get a +6pt Romney total.. > > Conclusion: fuggedaboutit You might want to rethink this post. Regions don’t vote; people, who live in states, do. Just because Obama or Romney leads a region does not mean he’s going to win every state in that region. Although unlikely, you do realize that it’s easy win every state in a region by one vote, but to lose one state by 10,000 votes and have the final top line say that the candidate in question lost that region, correct? What you seem to be ignoring from that graph, because it probably doesn’t suit you, is the fact is that Obama’s support is down among _every_ group from 2008 while Romney is running better than McCain among every group as compared to 2008. That’s not good and spells trouble. Even if you were to look at the [other](http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx) tracking poll released today for which I can find the data (O+1.5), the internals are really terrible for Obama, even with the extraordinarily large number of people responding who said they were “unsure”. There’s no way Obama would win reelection while losing Indies by five points (a 13 point swing from 2008) and only retaining 84% of his Democratic vote from 2008. It would be **IMPOSSIBLE** , especially with Romney retaining 92% of McCain supporters. ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2012, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/776 "2012-10-17T23:12:05Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > You might want to rethink this post. Regions don’t vote; people, who live in states, do. Just because Obama or Romney leads a region does not mean he’s going to win every state in that region. Although unlikely, you do realize that it’s easy win every state in a region by one vote, but to lose one state by 10,000 votes and have the final top line say that the candidate in question lost that region, correct? Romney’s going to win every state in the South handily except Florida. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2012, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/777 "2012-10-17T23:13:07Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > You might want to rethink this post. Regions don’t vote; people, who live in states, do. Er, no. People don’t vote for the President; states do – that’s US Constitution 101. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2012, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/778 "2012-10-17T23:22:51Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > Er, no. People don’t vote for the President; states do – that’s US Constitution 101. Laughably wrong. States have an electoral college which follows the popular vote in that state. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2012, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/779 "2012-10-17T23:33:23Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > What you seem to be ignoring from that graph, because it probably doesn’t suit you, is the fact is that Obama’s support is down among _every_ group from 2008 while Romney is running better than McCain among every group as compared to 2008. That’s not good and spells trouble. Did I miss a cite somewhere? Too many threads in this forum. > [@](#): > > Even if you were to look at the [other](http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx) tracking poll released today for which I can find the data (O+1.5), the internals are really terrible for Obama, even with the extraordinarily large number of people responding who said they were “unsure”. There’s no way Obama would win reelection while losing Indies by five points (a 13 point swing from 2008) and only retaining 84% of his Democratic vote from 2008. It would be **IMPOSSIBLE** , especially with Romney retaining 92% of McCain supporters. Wait, the poll shows Obama ahead… but its own internals show that it’s impossible for him to be ahead… so the poll must be wrong… but the internals are still right… so Obama is toast? > [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Laughably wrong. States have an electoral college which follows the popular vote in that state. But not by necessity. IIRC, if Ohio wanted to give their electoral votes to the candidate with the snappiest necktie, there’s nothing keeping them from doing so. ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2012, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/780 "2012-10-18T00:13:58Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > But not by necessity. IIRC, if Ohio wanted to give their electoral votes to the candidate with the snappiest necktie, there’s nothing keeping them from doing so. As long as the candidate met the minimum criteria for being president, you are correct. But there are cases where votes have been summarily thrown out when an electoral voter cast a vote for a dead person, for instance. ---
**Author:** ![digs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/digs/32/14889_2.png) [@digs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/digs)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2012, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/781 "2012-10-18T00:25:52Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Laughably wrong. States have an electoral college which follows the popular vote in that state. Laughably missing the point, if what he meant was that winning 51% or 99% of Georgia makes no difference with an electoral college. So a big jump in Republican voters in a Solid Red State makes no difference. Isn’t this something everyone over the age of twelve knows? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=38) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=40)