# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 43
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2012, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/842 "2012-10-19T18:52:10Z")
A whole bunch of polls released in the last hour or so. A pretty mixed bunch. Some good PPP numbers for Romney in Iowa and NH showing him with one point leads balanced by some decent YouGov numbers for Obama in Ohio(+4) and Nevada(+5). ---
**Author:** ![2ManyTacos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/2/3da27b/32.png) [@2ManyTacos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2ManyTacos)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2012, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/843 "2012-10-19T20:16:23Z")
Yeah, the poll out of Iowa in particular doesn’t make a lot of sense given the recent numbers coming out of that state, but hey, that’s what outliers are for. New Hampshire doesn’t make a lot of sense either, but whatever. FWIW, today is the first time since the Denver debate that Obama [is leading Romney](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html) in the RCP average. It’s the slimmest of leads, and I have a feeling that the numbers will probably swing the other way tomorrow, but at the very least it points to the narrow horse race into which this election has transformed. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2012, 2:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/844 "2012-10-20T02:54:28Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > It’s akin to saying I’m going to drive from New York to San Francisco in 12 hours, but I won’t break the speed limit. Anyone who uses math to show that I will need to break the speed limit is incorrect, because I’m pre-emptively stating that I won’t be breaking the speed limit. Romney must know a shortcut. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2012, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/845 "2012-10-20T23:18:22Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Romney must know a shortcut. If you take the dog off the roof, it cuts down on wind resistance. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2012, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/846 "2012-10-20T23:37:03Z")
PPP somehow has Obama dropping four points in Ohio since last week. This makes little sense to me. (Which brings something to mind: do pollsters count already-voted early voters as “likely voters” or not? I’ve seen contradictory information on this.) ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2012, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/847 "2012-10-21T00:39:02Z")
I was just canvassing for Obama in suburban Cleveland today, and probably one in five people to whom I spoke had already voted. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2012, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/848 "2012-10-21T16:18:05Z")
The Cleveland _Plain Dealer_, Ohio’s biggest newspaper, has endorsed Obama, with some reservations: [On the basis of sound leadership, re-elect Obama: endorsement editorial - cleveland.com](http://www.cleveland.com/opinion/index.ssf/2012/10/on_the_basis_of_sound_leadersh.html) ---
**Author:** ![2ManyTacos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/2/3da27b/32.png) [@2ManyTacos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2ManyTacos)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2012, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/849 "2012-10-21T17:04:52Z")
I think that Gallup has officially stopped making sense. It’s back up to [+7 for Romney again.](http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx) ---
**Author:** ![2ManyTacos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/2/3da27b/32.png) [@2ManyTacos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2ManyTacos)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2012, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/850 "2012-10-21T17:06:10Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > The Cleveland _Plain Dealer_, Ohio’s biggest newspaper, has endorsed Obama, with some reservations: [On the basis of sound leadership, re-elect Obama: endorsement editorial - cleveland.com](http://www.cleveland.com/opinion/index.ssf/2012/10/on_the_basis_of_sound_leadersh.html) As somebody who is in Ohio working for Obama, what is your opinion of his chances on winning that state? ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 12:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/851 "2012-10-22T00:58:49Z")
> [@2ManyTacos](#): > > As somebody who is in Ohio working for Obama, what is your opinion of his chances on winning that state? Pretty good, but by no means certain. Romney’s opposition to the auto bailout has hurt him a lot. Obama carried Ohio in 2008, but Bush took it (narrowly) in both 2000 and 2004. TV and radio advertising has been heavy; a lot of the radio ads I hear for Obama target the youth and black votes. The President has had a slight lead here in most polls I’ve seen for the past several weeks. He’ll have to win big in NE Ohio and Columbus, the other larger cities and suburbs to offset Romney’s rural GOP strength. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 1:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/852 "2012-10-22T01:42:57Z")
It just annoys me that voters would support a President based on a bailout. I’d be ashamed to admit such a thing. ---
**Author:** ![bengangmo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@bengangmo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bengangmo)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/853 "2012-10-22T01:54:09Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It just annoys me that voters would support a President based on a bailout. I’d be ashamed to admit such a thing. I’d guess that would depend on how you view a bailout. Some will see it as unfair help to those that should fail. Others will see it as a vote of confidence in the future of an organisation that made mistakes and got themselves into a hole they can’t get out of alone. From what I’ve seen - the bank / fianancial institution bailouts went pretty well for the government. As well as saving the institutions they turned a profit. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/854 "2012-10-22T01:55:18Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It just annoys me that voters would support a President based on a bailout. I’d be ashamed to admit such a thing. Yeah, why would I ever vote for the person who made it possible to keep my job instead of the person who thought I should have ended up pounding the pavement? How selfish! ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/855 "2012-10-22T02:03:39Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It just annoys me that voters would support a President based on a bailout. I’d be ashamed to admit such a thing. Are you talking about Romney and the billion dollar bailout of the 2002 Winter Olympics? Because he seems pretty proud of that. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/856 "2012-10-22T02:11:13Z")
The Olympics is a public event. A private corporation is a different case. Some corporations failed, they got bailed out by taxpayers. Not the first time either. If I had to keep going back to the government hat in hand I’d be pretty ashamed. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/857 "2012-10-22T02:11:24Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It just annoys me that voters would support a President based on a bailout. I’d be ashamed to admit such a thing. The Constitution was written by people who thought that a system could be put in place under which the best men would be elected to office for no other reason that they were the best men. Washington got elected for this reason. Nobody else ever has. What you’re saying is that you’re ashamed of the entire history of American politics. (And ever other country’s politics as well: human nature is universal.) Really, you’re ashamed of virtually the entirety of all human interaction. That’s one heck of a sweeping statement. It deserves a place in a museum, in a glass case atop a pedestal, with a spotlight shining on it twenty-four hours a day. It’s that much of a work of art. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/858 "2012-10-22T02:15:20Z")
Not every President was elected because he gave their employers money. If Obama won Ohio due to the auto bailout, it would be a first and set a bad precedent. Need to win reelection? Bail out the most important corporations in a swing state. ---
**Author:** ![bengangmo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@bengangmo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bengangmo)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/859 "2012-10-22T02:27:42Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The Olympics is a public event. A private corporation is a different case. Some corporations failed, they got bailed out by taxpayers. Not the first time either. If I had to keep going back to the government hat in hand I’d be pretty ashamed. I’d be interested in knowing, kind sir - why a public sporting event is worthy of government help, but an organisation that is a “not for profit” helping with healthcare and advice is not worthy of government funding. > [@Romney: No New Abortion Legislation If Elected](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/romney-no-new-abortion-legislation-if-elected/637277/64): > > Because they are a private corporation. Corporate welfare is not what we should be borrowing money to fund. (speaking on Planned Parenthood) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/860 "2012-10-22T02:32:15Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Not every President was elected because he gave their employers money. If Obama won Ohio due to the auto bailout, it would be a first and set a bad precedent. Need to win reelection? Bail out the most important corporations in a swing state. FDR got re-elected and re-elected, and deserved to, because he spent a lot of money in ways that saved or provided jobs. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/861 "2012-10-22T02:52:07Z")
The auto industry is responsible for an estimated one in eight jobs in Ohio. When Romney wrote “Let Detroit go bankrupt,” he was heedless of the massive negative effect that would have on the state’s economy, already under serious strain in 2008-09. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=42) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=44)