# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 46
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/902 "2012-10-22T18:48:44Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Sorry, your article is way too long and started way too poorly for me to keep reading. I’m just going to file this in my “crazy people” bin and move on. Good luck and I look forward to your “2012 election was stolen!” thread. Harper’s Magazine is hardly a fringe group. Hopefully, I won’t be complaining about the 2012 result. ---
**Author:** ![magellan01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@magellan01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magellan01)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/903 "2012-10-22T18:56:44Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > I think I was confused by your invocation of a particular poster who, according to his page one post, also answered “no” for the thread title, even with his belief that Obama was way ahead (which at the time, he kind of was - to what extent is another subject). That made me think you were talking about some kind of larger attitude. I see. Truth is, I didn’t even remember what was on Page 1 from when I had glanced at it a while ago. I added the observation about BLD due to his posts a couple before mine. I love that he’s already laying the groundwork for, “Romney stole the election”. Funny stuff. But funnier now that you point out his early post. HA! ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/904 "2012-10-22T19:11:54Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > The only place where I see Obama down in Colorado is the poll you cited, RCP. > … > Colorado only has the one poll. Clear? I undestand what you meant now, thanks for clarifying. And just so you understand, RCP isn’t a poll. They don’t even do polling themselves, they just aggregate and average the available public polling data. In the case of Colorado, they show that Romney has led in 6 of the 10 polls since the first debate. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/905 "2012-10-22T19:12:46Z")
> [@magellan01](#): > > I love that he’s already laying the groundwork for, “Romney stole the election”. Funny stuff. But funnier now that you point out his early post. HA! I understand what you’re saying, but is there an appropriate way for him to express concern for his belief that conservative interests could manipulate the process? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/906 "2012-10-22T19:15:52Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Harper’s Magazine is hardly a fringe group. Hopefully, I won’t be complaining about the 2012 result. My definition of “fringe group” includes anyone who seriously believes the 2004 election was “stolen.” That’s an idea so far-fetched and fanciful that I’m quite confident it is held by only the tiniest sliver of the extreme left. ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/907 "2012-10-22T19:24:52Z")
Well, the GOP is consistently so much better prepared to conduct foriegn policy and the economy I think they ought to steal any elections they can get away with, don’t you agree, **HurricaneDitka**? I feel strongly that McCain could have stolen, and should have stolen, more votes in 2008 so we wouldn’t be in–or anywhere near–this horrible fix we’re in. Isn’t the country important enough to steal for? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/908 "2012-10-22T19:27:24Z")
> [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](#): > > Well, the GOP is consistently so much better prepared to conduct foriegn policy and the economy I think they ought to steal any elections they can get away with, don’t you agree, **HurricaneDitka**? I feel strongly that McCain could have stolen, and should have stolen, more votes in 2008 so we wouldn’t be in–or anywhere near–this horrible fix we’re in. Isn’t the country important enough to steal for? Are you one of “those” people too? ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/909 "2012-10-22T19:43:10Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I undestand what you meant now, thanks for clarifying. And just so you understand, RCP isn’t a poll. They don’t even do polling themselves, they just aggregate and average the available public polling data. In the case of Colorado, they show that Romney has led in 6 of the 10 polls since the first debate. Ok, then I should’ve said that Obama is up in 3 out of 4 polls and/or aggregates. And I would hardly get excited about Romney being up 0.2 there. He’s not “ahead.” Like I said, it’s effectively tied. 50-50 chance for both candidates based on polling data. Obama’s organization within the state, however, is heads and tails more sophisticated than Romney’s. And as much as you want to dismiss that…well, go ahead and dismiss away. I say it gives Obama an edge as of now. But again, were I on the Obama campaign leadership team, Colorado is one of three states where I would go balls-out berzerker with the cash and the speechifying and hand-shaking in the final two weeks. He loses this (and it’s close enough to be worried), I would not feel comfortable about his chances. Likewise, Iowa and Nevada. Polling and ground campaign info in the other Battleground states looks solid enough for Obama, even if he loses Ohio, Florida and Virginia-- as long as he takes Colorado, Nevada and Iowa, which are the three states that I currently put in the Obama column that look the most precarious for Obama. ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/910 "2012-10-22T19:44:02Z")
I have just heard such filthy, twisted sociopathic rationales of various GOP positions over the years–beginning with the birther stuff, ending with the trickle-down nonsense–that the sick position I just laid out for you isn’t out of the question for such GOP defenders as yourself. “Country First,” my ass. You guys are all about power, and keeping any semblence away from anyone who’s two inches to your left. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/911 "2012-10-22T19:55:35Z")
Today Paul Ryan is campaigning in CO and Rick Perry (for better or for worse) is campaigning in NV. I also think the Romney camp has been in Iowa more recently (notably Ryan). None of the Obama campaign surrogates are in either IA, CO or NV today. Smart for Team Romney, hopefully Team Obama drops all their heavy lifting in places like Florida and Wisconsin and Virginia and moves west. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/912 "2012-10-22T20:11:38Z")
> [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](#): > > I have just heard such filthy, twisted sociopathic rationales of various GOP positions over the years–beginning with the birther stuff, ending with the trickle-down nonsense–that the sick position I just laid out for you isn’t out of the question for such GOP defenders as yourself. “Country First,” my ass. You guys are all about power, and keeping any semblence away from anyone who’s two inches to your left. Let me try to be clearer: Do you believe the 2004 election was stolen? ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/913 "2012-10-22T20:13:49Z")
No, I don’t. I believe the GOP would have had zero scruples against stealing it, but I don’t have evidence outside of their characters to think they did, so: No. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/914 "2012-10-22T20:17:37Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Like I said, it’s effectively tied. 50-50 chance for both candidates based on polling data. I agree. > [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Polling and ground campaign info in the other Battleground states looks solid enough for Obama, even if he loses Ohio, Florida and Virginia-- as long as he takes Colorado, Nevada and Iowa, which are the three states that I currently put in the Obama column that look the most precarious for Obama. You’re not concerned about [New Hampshire](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_romney_vs_obama-2030.html)? FL, VA, OH, and NH = 270 for Romney. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/915 "2012-10-22T20:24:40Z")
> [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](#): > > No, I don’t. > > I believe the GOP would have had zero scruples against stealing it, but I don’t have evidence outside of their characters to think they did, so: No. When you say “the GOP” what do you mean? Are you talking about the 30-something% of the country that self-identifies as Republicans, or just George W. Bush and Karl Rove? ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/916 "2012-10-22T20:25:45Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > My definition of “fringe group” includes anyone who seriously believes the 2004 election was “stolen.” That’s an idea so far-fetched and fanciful that I’m quite confident it is held by only the tiniest sliver of the extreme left. I’m afraid you’re wildly underestimating the extent to which these kinds of beliefs dominate both sides of the political aisle. I would hazard the guess that a majority of Democrats believe illegal activities in Ohio cost John Kerry that state. That’s what polls at the time showed. Just like a majority of Republicans think Obama faked his birth certificate, and there’s a heck of a lot more evidence for the Ohio conspiracy than the Kenya one. As to Ohio, there were at least legitimate-seeming studies that showed inexplicable phenomenon, like statistically significant correlations between voting method and outcome (i.e., Bush getting significant more votes on e-voting machines than on the other methods). As it turns out, on closer inspections, these studies weren’t that convincing. But most partisans of any stripe aren’t going to dig that far into the evidence that comforts them. ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/917 "2012-10-22T20:27:42Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > When you say “the GOP” what do you mean? Are you talking about the 30-something% of the country that self-identifies as Republicans, or just George W. Bush and Karl Rove? I’m talking about 30% of the country who unthinkingly supports George W. Bush and Karl Rove, and whose blind support they depend upon. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/918 "2012-10-22T20:32:37Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > You’re not concerned about [New Hampshire](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_romney_vs_obama-2030.html)? FL, VA, OH, and NH = 270 for Romney. Not particularly right now; unless polling starts to drastically break for MR, it’s pretty split there. But again, the more sophisticated ground game is Obama’s. And I guarantee there’s an army of antsy New Englanders who want to volunteer for Obama but have nothing to do in their own states. They’ll be in NH on Nov. 6. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/919 "2012-10-22T20:40:39Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > I’m afraid you’re wildly underestimating the extent to which these kinds of beliefs dominate both sides of the political aisle. I would hazard the guess that a majority of Democrats believe illegal activities in Ohio cost John Kerry that state. That’s what polls at the time showed. Just like a majority of Republicans think Obama faked his birth certificate, and there’s a heck of a lot more evidence for the Ohio conspiracy than the Kenya one. > > As to Ohio, there were at least legitimate-seeming studies that showed inexplicable phenomenon, like statistically significant correlations between voting method and outcome (i.e., Bush getting significant more votes on e-voting machines than on the other methods). As it turns out, on closer inspections, these studies weren’t that convincing. But most partisans of any stripe aren’t going to dig that far into the evidence that comforts them. That’s disheartening, but probably accurate. Just looking at pseudotriton’s post immediately following yours is evidence of that. ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/920 "2012-10-22T21:09:05Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > That’s disheartening, but probably accurate. Just looking at pseudotriton’s post immediately following yours is evidence of that. What do you take my post to be evidence of? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/921 "2012-10-22T21:31:48Z")
> [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](#): > > What do you take my post to be evidence of? That I’m “wildly underestimating the extent to which these kinds of beliefs dominate both sides of the political aisle.” You said you thought 30% of the country “would have had zero scruples against stealing [the 2004 election].” That’s radically partisan. While I disagree politically with much of what Democrats want, I don’t doubt that many of them are generally decent folks who simply have different priorities or values than me. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=45) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=47)