# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 48
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/942 "2012-10-24T14:36:45Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > he simply needed to come off as presidential and at least look like a viable alternative to Obama, which he accomplished. And to have failed to accomplish this perfectly subjective goal, what would he have had to do? Parroted Obama’s policies in regard to health care and foriegn affairs? Make charges that a six-year-old with internet access could easily disprove? Forget the Persian Gulf existed? Disowned most of the positions he had argued forcefully during primary season? I agree that this are all major disqualifications, but I don’t think he needed to go quite as far as this to disqualify himself. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/943 "2012-10-24T14:51:45Z")
I maintain my earlier contention that Nevada, Iowa and Colorado are the three states Obama _needs to win to get re-elected_, and is at most risk of losing. And it seems, based upon his and Romney’s travel current travel, [they would agree](http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/24/14666813-first-thoughts-battleground-blitz?lite). > [@](#): > > And today, beginning his whirlwind tour on Air Force One, [Obama] heads to Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada. Meanwhile, Romney yesterday was in Nevada and Colorado. And today, he returns to Nevada before heading to Iowa. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/944 "2012-10-24T14:55:27Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > I maintain my earlier contention that Nevada, Iowa and Colorado are the three states Obama _needs to win to get re-elected_, and is at most risk of losing. > > And it seems, based upon his and Romney’s travel current travel, [they would agree](http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/24/14666813-first-thoughts-battleground-blitz?lite). I agree that those are very important, but if he has OH (and he has a small but relatively stable lead there) then he just needs one of those three to win (assuming he keeps states like WI and PA, which he has a larger lead in). ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/945 "2012-10-24T15:10:35Z")
I’m assuming the absolute worst in OH and FL and VA for Obama. Also operating under the assumption that he’ll hold PA, WI, MI and NH. That means he needs IA, CO and NV-- and those are ridiculously close. But. Obama really has a [huuuge advantage](http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/10/19/ground-game-obama-opens-up-big-lead-in-state-headquarters.html) with his GOTV ground game in two of those three states. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/946 "2012-10-24T15:14:26Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > Thinking\* meat! You’re asking me to believe in thinking meat! > \*for a given value of “thinking” “Sentient Meat” would be a great Dope name. ---
**Author:** ![mkecane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9e8a1a/32.png) [@mkecane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mkecane)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/947 "2012-10-24T15:33:30Z")
> [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](#): > > BTW, what you think of “voMitt OnMe”? Have I finally found something more childish than “Obammer,” “Oblamer,” “0bama,” etc.? I’ve been reaching for my inner child these past few weeks, the best I could come up with is “Governor Momjeans,” but I think “voMitt OnMe” has a certain three-year-old appeal, no? You forgot Obummer and Chairman 0/Zero (a very, very clever take on Chairman Mao!). Two weeks from today, I hope the best nickname for Romney is simply, “Who?” ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/948 "2012-10-24T15:58:06Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > I’m assuming … that he’ll hold … NH. I think that’s a bold assumption. Since the debate, [the polls there](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_romney_vs_obama-2030.html) have been: Tie, R+4, Tie, O+1, R+1, O+9 (!), R+2, R+2. Losing in half the polls, and tied in another 25% is hardly a sure thing. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/949 "2012-10-24T16:06:22Z")
I think, overall, that when the OP posted “Is it to early to say Romney has lost?” the answer would have to be “Yes.” ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/950 "2012-10-24T16:38:15Z")
> [@Tom\_Scud](#): > > “Sentient Meat” would be a great Dope name. [Already got one](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/member.php). ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/951 "2012-10-24T16:47:54Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I think that’s a bold assumption. Since the debate, [the polls there](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_romney_vs_obama-2030.html) have been: > Tie, R+4, Tie, O+1, R+1, O+9 (!), R+2, R+2. > > Losing in half the polls, and tied in another 25% is hardly a sure thing. Huh? There is only one poll listed which includes post-debate figures: Rasmussen’s Tuesday poll (R+2). ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/952 "2012-10-24T17:06:48Z")
[http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/us-president-12](http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/us-president-12) 4 out of the 5 national polls show a move towards Obama and the TPM national average is now +2 for him. We will have to wait a few days to be sure but this may be early evidence of a post-debate bounce. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/953 "2012-10-24T17:12:26Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Take some heart! [Reuters predicts Obama landslide.](http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-romney-electoral-college-map-reuters-poll-ipsos-2012-10) Oh, man! I would so love that. I feel a little better now. Had a robopoll call last night, asking me about the Presidential and U.S. Senate races (incumbent Sherrod Brown vs. GOP challenger Josh Mandel) here in Ohio. The poll was commissioned by the American Future Fund, which I learned when I checked Wiki is connected with the pro-Romney Koch Brothers. I don’t think I gave them the answers they wanted. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/954 "2012-10-24T17:16:36Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Huh? There is only one poll listed which includes post-debate figures: Rasmussen’s Tuesday poll (R+2). Sorry, I meant since the first debate. ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/955 "2012-10-24T17:18:17Z")
Gallup, a pretty severe outlier since they switched to their likely voter model, [has Obama gaining on Romney another point today](http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/gallup-obama-gains-on-romney?ref=fpb) with Romney at a +3 (he was up to a +7 at one point, I believe). ETA: They also show Obama gaining in approval, up a point to 53%. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/956 "2012-10-24T17:19:17Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Sorry, I meant since the first debate. Oh, okay. Carry on. ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/957 "2012-10-24T18:56:02Z")
> [@Bob Ducca](#): > > Gallup, a pretty severe outlier since they switched to their likely voter model, [has Obama gaining on Romney another point today](http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/gallup-obama-gains-on-romney?ref=fpb) with Romney at a +3 (he was up to a +7 at one point, I believe). Shoot. I was hoping Gallup would continue to be a big outlier, because whenever they are, as Nate Silver [points out](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/18/gallup-vs-the-world/), they perform very poorly. 🙂 I’m being a bit facetious, because you can’t argue with a narrowing of the gap for Obama… ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/958 "2012-10-24T19:46:53Z")
Bad lip-reading Mitt: [http://www.gotchamediablog.com/2011/10/read-mitt-romneys-lips.html](http://www.gotchamediablog.com/2011/10/read-mitt-romneys-lips.html) ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/959 "2012-10-24T20:20:51Z")
A Time poll has Obama +5 in Ohio. Pretty sure the 538 forecast will be above 70% again when Nate updates it next. ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/960 "2012-10-24T21:18:04Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Bad lip-reading Mitt: [http://www.gotchamediablog.com/2011/10/read-mitt-romneys-lips.html](http://www.gotchamediablog.com/2011/10/read-mitt-romneys-lips.html) Thank you, that was quite amusing! ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/961 "2012-10-24T21:27:24Z")
Would anyone object if we just had the election tomorrow? I am getting polling fatigue. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=47) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=49)