# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 51
**Author:** ![tomcar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7993a0/32.png) [@tomcar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomcar)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1002 "2012-10-26T03:58:12Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Anyone see a problem with that headline? Nothing brings on rape like pregnancy does 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1003 "2012-10-26T04:18:32Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > And a one percentage point shift in the popular vote would be sufficient to put some of those 70 percenters back down to 50 percent. I agree, generally speaking. > [@adaher](#): > > Exactly. But historically, national polls are more accurate than swing state polls because they use a larger sample size. I really think Silver’s going to have some egg on his face this cycle. If Romney takes the lead in Ohio at some point between now and Nov. 6, and Silver’s model still shows a 60% chance or greater of Obama winning, his credibility will take a hit if it doesn’t happen. I guess you don’t understand probability. 2:1 odds means Obama has a 67% chance of winning, or the odds of rolling a 1,2,3, or 4 on a single die roll. That’s not exactly overwhelming. And OBTW: Nate Silver’s model currently suggests that Obama is winning the popular vote 50.2 - 48.7. When the margin is that tight, you would expect some polls to favor Romney, others Obama. That’s why serious people look at _all_ the data, properly weighted. Frankly, I think partisan cheerleaders are most likely to look stupid after the election, depending upon which side happens to win. For myself, the odds I give Obama rises and falls with the 538 forecast: tonight Obama has 73%. Reverting 5 percentage points to the mean (rather than 10, it’s getting close to the election after all) gives an MfM forecast of a 68% chance of Democratic victory. In contrast, Dick Morris thinks that Romney will win by 4 or 5 percentage points. I doubt that and opine that those who watch him are extremely gullible. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 4:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1004 "2012-10-26T04:36:40Z")
Is Yahoo News doing Onion-style satire now? Nope, this one’s for real. [Meatloaf, possibly drunk, surprises the world by showing up on a Romney campaign stage, performing some deep cuts, and offering “meandering” endorsements of the Massachusetts Republican.](http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/meat-loaf-backs-romney-citing-candidate-backbone-024350047--election.html) Romney seems to have finally won the much-coveted strange celebrity performance artist demographic. > [@](#): > > DEFIANCE, Ohio—Mitt Romney’s campaign rally here at a high school football stadium took an unusual turn Thursday night when the Republican nominee received a surprise endorsement from what could only be described as a rather unexpected guest… > > The surprise visitor: the rock star turned occasional actor Meat Loaf. > > Dressed in a baggy black suit accented with multicolor sequins, the singer, who rose to fame from his star turn in “The Rocky Horror Picture Show,” dramatically stormed the stage to the shock of many of those in the audience, who turned to each other with questioning faces. > > The aging rocker, perhaps best known for his 1994 hit “I’d Do Anything for Love (But I Won’t Do That),” performed a series of power ballads familiar only to the most devoted Meat Loaf fans. In between, he offered a…sometimes slurred endorsement of the GOP nominee… > > “This is the most important election in the history of the United States,” Meat Loaf explained. “Because there has storm clouds come over the United States. There is thunderstorms over Europe. There are hail storms–and I mean major hail storms–in the Middle East. There are storms brewing through China, through Asia, through everywhere… I want you to know there is one man who will stand tall in this country and fight the storm and bring the United States back to what it should be. Gov. Mitt Romney!” > > Romney, the singer continued after another song, has “backbone.” He urged the audience to contact Democrats and ask them to back Romney’s bid for the presidency… > > Meat Loaf invited audience members on stage to wave Romney signs behind him as he performed a last dramatic number—the words of which were hard to make out… > > But it wasn’t just people in the crowd who were surprised to see Meat Loaf. Taking the stage a few moments later, Romney seemed as surprised as anyone to have received the singer’s backing. > > “Meat Loaf was here,” the GOP candidate said. “Can you believe it?”… > > In something of an odd coincidence, Romney’s appearance came just hours after his wife, Ann, appeared on the “Rachael Ray” show and cooked the candidate’s favorite meal: meatloaf. There’s a “put a fork in it” joke here somewhere. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 4:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1005 "2012-10-26T04:44:49Z")
Some more Meatloaf deliciousness from [Politico](http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82911.html): > [@](#): > > The Texan singer faulted Obama for saying at Monday’s debate that the Cold War has ended. > “I have never heard such a thing in my life,” he said. “The man needs to understand [Vladimir] Putin and Russia.”… > > “I have been arguing for Mitt Romney for a year. I made three phone calls today to Democrats in California, and I got two of them to switch to Romney, so two out of three ain’t bad.”… > > Romney expressed gratitude for the performances. > > “Now I have to tell you I don’t recall having so much fun in such a long time as to be able to listen to these guys this evening,” Romney said, referring to Meat Loaf, who performed along with some other big acts… > > “Look these guys have other things to do ya know, they have lives,” he said after their sets. “They can go to a concert where they’re getting paid but they decided instead, because this election counts so much, to come here, and I want to thank them for their generosity and support.” Yeah, Mitt, I’m pretty sure Meatloaf didn’t cancel any paying gigs for this one. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 4:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1006 "2012-10-26T04:55:50Z")
Romney had a slightly better day with the polls released later in the day especially the national polls. In particular the highly-regarded WaPo poll has moved in his direction along with a few other national polls and he had two +2 polls in Virginia. Still my overall sense is that Obama has had the better of the swing state polling since the debate. He has +3 leads in 3 out of last 4 Colorado polls for example (with a tie in the other). ``` I think there are two basic questions the state polls can help us answer: ``` 1. How secure is Obama’s plan A to win the election? Right now this involves Ohio, Wisconsin and Nevada. It’s looking very solid with polls consistently showing Obama up by 2-4 points in these states. This Plan A looked quite solid even at Romney’s peak after the first debate which suggests a fair amount of resilience too. 2. Does Obama have a credible plan B especially if he loses Ohio? Before the first debate the answer was clearly yes but Obama lost clear leads in states like Virginia and Colorado which became tossups. However he has crept back up in both states especially Colorado. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 9:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1007 "2012-10-26T09:16:40Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > If Romney wins the national vote by 2 - 3 percentage points and carries Independents by 8+ points, he’s going to win the election. Point blank. Almost undoubtedly true, but poll averages and aggregates don’t show this right now. > [@](#): > > What I actually find odd about 538 is that Nate has Obama receiving 50.2% of the vote. How many polls out have Obama hitting the 50% mark? I can find one. Otoh, there are three different polls right now which show Romney at the 50% mark. It’d be interesting to note where the 50.2% comes from. [Very few opinion polls in 2008](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2008) showed Obama receiving 53% until the last few days of the election (around 2 Nov, 08). Most polls include “undecided” as a category- but there are no undecided votes counted. So Silver uses poll averages and average margins to estimate the final vote count. He was extremely close in 2008, and I see little reason not to believe he’s close today. Keep in mind he relies heavily on the state polls, which really do show a small but consistent Obama lead in enough states (WI, OH, and NV, for example) to win 270 EVs. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 10:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1008 "2012-10-26T10:22:29Z")
More hope! [Obama surges to 6 point lead in RAND poll!](https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election#election-forecast) ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 12:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1009 "2012-10-26T12:05:31Z")
> [@](#): > > “I have been arguing for Mitt Romney for a year. I made three phone calls today to Democrats in California, and I got two of them to switch to Romney, so two out of three ain’t bad.”… Okay, either that’s a line from an Onion article or Mr. Loaf has a better sense of humor than I thought… ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1010 "2012-10-26T12:59:32Z")
I am an Obama supporter. I had been assuming that Virginia and Colorado were the really important states this year, especially if we concede that Romney might very well win Ohio. After playing around with the numbers, I realized that this is correct, BUT it turns out that New Hampshire might be very important as well. If we find out rather early on election night that Romney is projected to win Ohio and Virginia, then Obama would quite likely need BOTH New Hampshire AND Colorado to win. Just Colorado won’t get him there. (But just Virginia would have.) ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 1:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1011 "2012-10-26T13:01:55Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > I am an Obama supporter. I had been assuming that Virginia and Colorado were the really important states this year, especially if we concede that Romney might very well win Ohio. After playing around with the numbers, I realized that this is correct, BUT it turns out that New Hampshire might be very important as well. If we find out rather early on election night that Romney is projected to win Ohio and Virginia, then Obama would quite likely need BOTH New Hampshire AND Colorado to win. Just Colorado won’t get him there. (But just Virginia would have.) But Obama’s lead in OH is greater than in all those other states you mentioned. I don’t think WI and PA are really swing states. I think NV is very solidly in Obama’s column. That means if he wins OH, he has 270 EVs. And he’s got a steady, stable lead there. That’s why so much of the focus is on OH. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 1:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1012 "2012-10-26T13:09:04Z")
The reason I don’t trust Ohioans is this article: [“The Effects of Racial Animus on a Black Presidential Candidate: Using Google Search Data to Find What Surveys Miss,”](http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~sstephen/papers/RacialAnimusAndVotingSethStephensDavidowitz.pdf)by Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, a Harvard economics PhD candidate. The author astutely realized that people are more truthful about certain things (including racist or racial tendencies) within the anonymous world of Google than they are in traditional questionnaire surveys. The author concludes that Obama won in 2008 DESPITE about 4 percent of voters nationally voting against him purely due to his “race”. The heartland for this sentiment is a region around where Ohio, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania meet. It’s interesting that such places tend to be where there is a specific percentage range of black residents. More than this, they tend to be accepted as a full part of society. Fewer than this, they tend to not cause much “concern.” In general, I’m afraid that a lot of people will feel like four years ago they proved to themselves and to others that they can vote for a black man for president – but now that they’ve given themselves a pat on the back, they will go for the white guy, “all other things being equal”. I hope I’m wrong. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1013 "2012-10-26T13:25:55Z")
If there is a 4% difference between polls and actual results Romney would win in a landslide. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1014 "2012-10-26T13:31:21Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > If there is a 4% difference between polls and actual results Romney would win in a landslide. Or an Obama win in a landslide. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 1:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1015 "2012-10-26T13:33:50Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Or an Obama win in a landslide. True, but I think DigitalC was referring to my paraphrase of the article I just cited (although it should be noted that the 4% figure wasn’t specifically about the difference between pre-election polls and real voting – i.e., the “Bradley effect”.) ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1016 "2012-10-26T13:37:56Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > True, but I think DigitalC was referring to my paraphrase of the article I just cited. Ok. It’s possible, but if you compare the [2008 state results](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008#Result)with [2008 state polling](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2008), you’ll find that in the swing states (which are most heavily polled), Obama consistently outperformed or was at the high end of the polling. This is generally attributed to a superior turnout operation, which by all accounts the Obama campaign has maintained and even improved. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1017 "2012-10-26T14:17:18Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Ok. It’s possible, but if you compare the [2008 state results](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008#Result)with [2008 state polling](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2008), you’ll find that in the swing states (which are most heavily polled), Obama consistently outperformed or was at the high end of the polling. This is generally attributed to a superior turnout operation, which by all accounts the Obama campaign has maintained and even improved. Good point. But we can’t relax yet. That “turnout operation” might be going well so far, but it’s all for naught if each of us doesn’t put some effort (however small) into making it happen when it counts – namely, from this moment until Election Day. (I won’t exhort anymore…I know this is sort of supposed to be a “just the facts, please” thread. Or is it? Whatever.) ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1018 "2012-10-26T14:20:27Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Good point. But we can’t relax yet. That “turnout operation” might be going well so far, but it’s all for naught if each of us doesn’t put some effort (however small) into making it happen when it counts – namely, from this moment until Election Day. > > (I won’t exhort anymore…I know this is sort of supposed to be a “just the facts, please” thread. Or is it? Whatever.) I’m not relaxing! I voted (early) last week, but I’m still giving. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1019 "2012-10-26T14:20:32Z")
It is also worth noting that these polls are all likely voter polls, which are incredibly hard to gauge their accuracy, primarily because we don’t know what screen they use. There has been some argument the Registered voter polls actually perform better. If that is the case, than Obama has a healthy lead. ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1020 "2012-10-26T14:34:11Z")
> [@Gangster\_Octopus](#): > > It is also worth noting that these polls are all likely voter polls, which are incredibly hard to gauge their accuracy, primarily because we don’t know what screen they use. There has been some argument the Registered voter polls actually perform better. If that is the case, than Obama has a healthy lead. Yeah, I read something about this yesterday (maybe on 538, not sure) and the gist was that likely voter screens often leave out people that say they’ll “probably vote” or are “50/50”. The 50/50’s I can see leaving out, but if someone says they’ll probably vote, you should count them. When you look at the cross-tabs including the “probable voters”, the numbers look much better for Obama. ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1021 "2012-10-26T14:35:15Z")
Yep. All (or most) of the “likely voter” models reduce the number of Democrats by a lot. We’ll see how accurate that assumption really is … I will say this. People who think Obama voters aren’t as motivated and excited as they were in 2008 are flat out wrong. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=50) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=52)