# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 56
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2012, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1102 "2012-10-28T01:33:38Z")
Does he include Dean Chambers’ favorite pollster? I’d bet not. If you’ve got a basket of polls that’s proven accurate in the past, why add to it? Seems like you’d start getting more noise. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2012, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1103 "2012-10-28T01:35:57Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Does he include Dean Chambers’ favorite pollster? I’d bet not. If you’ve got a basket of polls that’s proven accurate in the past, why add to it? Seems like you’d start getting more noise. What’s Dean Chambers’ favorite (and why should I care- his “Unskewed Polls” is downright comical)? Nate’s always used all the polls, and RCP has always excluded a handful. And in the Electoral College, Nate has a better track record than RCP. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2012, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1104 "2012-10-28T01:39:20Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I don’t know if he weighs them equally, but at least he includes them in his analysis. He does not weight them equally. First, he adjusts the based on known “house effects”. Then he weights them based on “reliability” which is based on both the size of the sample, the method used (he adjusts polls that don’t include cell phones), and the historical quality of the pollster (based on past accuracy). ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2012, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1105 "2012-10-28T01:40:49Z")
As to why the basket changes, Silver has always felt that more data is better. Also, pollster quality varies quite a bit over time (Gallup, for example, has been no better than average lately - and missed pretty widely in 2008 and 2010). ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2012, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1106 "2012-10-28T02:29:28Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general\_election\_romney\_vs\_obama-1171.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html) If you’re going to cite RCP, then you have to cite what RCP says about the electoral college race - which is the only thing that counts, as you have been told a million times. Their current count of the electoral college race is [290 Obama, 248 Romney](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html). 538 says, as of this moment, 295 Obama, 243 Romney. So RCP and 538 are making essentially the same prediction, on the only issue that matters. So how can you claim that RCP is contradicting 538? And why, if you are proclaiming its accuracy, are you saying they’re predicting a Romney win when they are not? ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2012, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1107 "2012-10-28T02:46:53Z")
The _Des Moines Register,_ which should know better, has endorsed Romney: [http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20121027/OPINION03/121026026/0/NEWS/?odyssey=nav|head](http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20121027/OPINION03/121026026/0/NEWS/?odyssey=nav%7Chead) ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2012, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1108 "2012-10-28T02:48:23Z")
**adaher** has been told and told and told and told about the importance of the state polls and the fact that the electoral college votes are what elect the president. He chooses to ignore this because it does not fit in with his “Romney is winning” preconceived notion. ---
**Author:** ![Polerius](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/d78d45/32.png) [@Polerius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Polerius)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2012, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1109 "2012-10-28T03:12:50Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > Their current count of the electoral college race is [290 Obama, 248 Romney](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html). > 538 says, as of this moment, 295 Obama, 243 Romney. FWIW, my calculations also show 290 Obama, 248 Romney, with 68% chance of Obama winning. Since Romney still has around 32% chance of winning, this race is definitely not over yet. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2012, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1110 "2012-10-28T03:44:13Z")
I’d thought we all agreed that it was very unlikely that Romney would win the popular vote and lose the Electoral College. Either the national popular vote polls are wrong or the swing state polls are wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2012, 3:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1111 "2012-10-28T03:46:08Z")
Is this on… tap tap tap… The national popular vote polls, taking all polls into account, show Obama ahead by 0.2% as of Friday. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2012, 5:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1112 "2012-10-28T05:34:21Z")
Yeah Romney is up only if you exclude Rand. Rand has an unusual methodology but it’s definitely a scientific poll, where they poll the same 3500 people over a few months by e-mail. You can make a case it’s a better method than random sampling. I don’t see any reason to exclude them outright. Anyway Obama is down a point on 538. Nate tweeted that a good OH poll for Romney slightly outweighed a bad VA. At first I had trouble finding out what the OH poll was but I think it’s a U Cincinnati poll on the 23rd which shows a tied race. Presumably they only released it today. 538 gives it the highest rating so I can see why it would move the needle. The bad VA poll for Romney was a WaPo poll showing him down by 4. VA has definitely moved in Obama’s direction in the last 10 days from around 50% to 60%. If that continues Romney is in serious trouble. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2012, 6:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1113 "2012-10-28T06:17:52Z")
Another problem for Obama: his job approval is starting to drop significantly. Libya? [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president\_obama\_job\_approval-1044.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html) Gallup has him now at 46%. And that’s among all adults, which is usually much more favorable for him. He’s dropped six points in the last few days. ---
**Author:** ![Face\_Intentionally\_Left\_Blank](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/face_intentionally_left_blank/32/288_2.png) [@Face\_Intentionally\_Left\_Blank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Face_Intentionally_Left_Blank)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2012, 6:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1114 "2012-10-28T06:46:20Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I’d thought we all agreed that it was very unlikely that Romney would win the popular vote and lose the Electoral College. > > Either the national popular vote polls are wrong or the swing state polls are wrong. It’s quite easy to see a situation where Romney gets the popular vote, and loses the electoral college. Swing-state polls are what I’d be concerned with. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2012, 7:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1115 "2012-10-28T07:22:55Z")
That’s a very unlikely outcome. Could happen, probably won’t. The winner of the popular vote has a 92% chance of winning the electoral college, according to Silver’s model. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2012, 7:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1116 "2012-10-28T07:54:02Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Another problem for Obama: his job approval is starting to drop significantly. Libya? IMO, no, especially since I have no idea why the voters would choose NOW to get curious with all the attention given to it in the past few weeks. Given that, I’m really not sure what could possibly be causing it, which is why I’m a little skeptical that it’s really happening. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2012, 8:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1117 "2012-10-28T08:07:10Z")
Could be that he’s chosen to make his campaign be about small things. And of course relentlessly negative. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2012, 10:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1118 "2012-10-28T10:22:55Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > And of course relentlessly negative. More negative than Romney? That is hard to imagine. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2012, 10:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1119 "2012-10-28T10:53:20Z")
Definitely, and even moreso lately. Romney’s been running since the debate as if he’s in the lead, touting his plans. Obama’s got nothing but snark left. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2012, 11:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1120 "2012-10-28T11:18:35Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Definitely, and even moreso lately. Romney’s been running since the debate as if he’s in the lead, touting his plans. Obama’s got nothing but snark left. We could go around on this forever. Obama is leading in the state polls. We’ll see in 9 days if they’re right. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2012, 12:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1121 "2012-10-28T12:10:17Z")
The campaigns are both acting as if Romney is in the lead. Obviously that doesn’t mean much, it could be to both their advantage at this point to pretend that is the case(Romney needs to seem competitive, Obama needs to seem motivated). [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=55) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=57)