# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 58
**Author:** ![Uncle\_Jocko](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uncle_jocko/32/2932_2.png) [@Uncle\_Jocko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Uncle_Jocko)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2012, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1142 "2012-10-28T22:05:35Z")
Well, ignorance fought, then. I appreciate the explanation. You can probably tell I haven’t taken that many stats courses … A question, though. If a candidate’s lead in a particular poll is less than that poll’s MoE, what precisely does that mean? The published lead is the most likely result, but it could conceivably range within that MoE? I’m genuinely curious. I do see your point about aggregating polls lessening the possible range of error. That makes sense (how likely would they all be off in similar ways?). ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2012, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1143 "2012-10-28T22:30:19Z")
> [@Uncle\_Jocko](#): > > A question, though. If a candidate’s lead in a particular poll is less than that poll’s MoE, what precisely does that mean? The published lead is the most likely result, but it could conceivably range within that MoE? I’m genuinely curious. What is published is the actual result of a random sample. The reality of the underlying distribution of voters could \*conceivably \*be anything consistent with the sample (i.e., it’s possible, though incredibly unlikely, that there are only 400 or so Obama voters and tens of millions of Romney voters). But the margin of error tells you how often a random sample could come up with these results and yet be further from reality than the margin. The typical margin of error is calculated at 95% confidence, meaning one in twenty polls would show that confidence interval just by bad luck of a very (randomly) skewed sample while the reality was actually outside of it. To put this in concrete terms, suppose I have a bag full of thousands of red and blue marbles. I don’t know how many of each there are. But I draw 400 and get exactly 200 red and 200 blue. The most likely distribution of the bag is 50% red and 50% blue. But, of course, I could have just gotten a skewed sample just by chance. In fact, there’s a small chance that there were only 200 blue, and thousands more red. And there’s a fairly good chance that the bag is actually 51/49. But equally good that it’s 49/51. And so the likelihood of the true distribution of the bag clusters around my sample result and drops off on both sides, with 49/51 being more likely than 48/52, and so on. > [@Uncle Jocko](#): > > I do see your point about aggregating polls lessening the possible range of error. That makes sense (how likely would they all be off in similar ways?). Right. Very unlikely for them all to be off as a matter of random chance in the same direction. However, they could all be off because of methodological reasons, which are not accounted for in the margin of error. The margin of error describes only the possibility of the result being off by chance, not because of bad question design, or percentage of cell phones called, or any number of other methodological choices. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1144 "2012-10-29T00:11:14Z")
Whenever you’re doing a ‘meta analysis’ across multiple studies, on of the things you want to look for is ‘common mode error’. If everyone is making the same mistake, then the fact that many polls agree with each other is not necessarily indicative of where the race truly stands. I’m not saying that’s the case here, but it’s an important factor to remember. Common Mode Error is one of the more common ways that statistical analyses, and especial meta-analyses, fail. In the case of the current election polls, one possible source of common-mode error is the assumed ideological breakdown of the population. That’s what Republicans keep claiming - that the polls are over-weighting Democrats and skewing the results. Another possible source of common-mode error would be telephone polls that don’t account for cell phone or skype users, which would tend to underweight younger people. Democrats have made this claim to explain discrepancies among a number of polls. Then there’s common mode error that no one is factoring because no one knows it exists (Rumsfeld’s “unknown unknowns”). It’s this stuff that keeps analysts awake at night, wondering if there’s a hidden factor they’re missing. The more complex the system that you’re trying to sample/model, the more of these that may be lurking. That’s why I don’t get too worked up about the polls today. Why get into a big argument about which polls are accurate and which ones aren’t? We’ll all know in nine days. Then we can have fun debates dissecting them and figuring out why the ones that were wrong failed. ---
**Author:** ![Belowjob2.0](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Belowjob2.0](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Belowjob2.0)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1145 "2012-10-29T00:15:01Z")
> [@](#): > > Then we can have fun debates dissecting them and figuring out why the ones that were wrong failed. After we talk you down from that ledge you’ll be standing on. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1146 "2012-10-29T00:21:53Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > In the case of the current election polls, one possible source of common-mode error is the assumed ideological breakdown of the population. That’s what Republicans keep claiming - that the polls are over-weighting Democrats and skewing the results. We’ve done this one to death, but it’s always worth pointing out that this could not actually function as a systemic error in the current aggregates because only a handful of polls weight by party ID (most prominently Rasmussen, so that’s another reason it wouldn’t play a role). A far more likely systemic error is assumptions about the demographics of the eventual electorate. If white turnout is 80% instead of 77% or so, then most of the polls will be underestimating Romney. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1147 "2012-10-29T00:37:07Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Of course, I’d love it if he actually won those states. While losing Ohio, just to make Axelrod look bad. 😕 Will it make Rob Portman look bad if Romney loses Ohio? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1148 "2012-10-29T00:53:23Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > We’ve done this one to death, but it’s always worth pointing out that this could not actually function as a systemic error in the current aggregates because only a handful of polls weight by party ID (most prominently Rasmussen, so that’s another reason it wouldn’t play a role). > > A far more likely systemic error is assumptions about the demographics of the eventual electorate. If white turnout is 80% instead of 77% or so, then most of the polls will be underestimating Romney. Exactly right. The polls that allegedly showed too much Party ID were notably NOT balancing for party ID; that’s just how random samples once corrected for demography fell out. But aye there’s the rub. There could be systemic errors in those demographic corrections, or in the likely voter screens. **2ManyTacos** , we seem to have a habit of posting at the same time! Thanks for that Rand poll link. What an interesting methodology. Not so sure what to think of that approach though. Still it is of note to see another approach give a different sort of result. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1149 "2012-10-29T02:19:26Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > 😕 Will it make Rob Portman look bad if Romney loses Ohio? No. I don’t know anyone who thinks, and have read no reports to the effect, that Portman is making a big difference for Romney here in Ohio. (Any kind of difference _at all_, actually). Romney will win or lose on his own merits, and those of the President. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1150 "2012-10-29T03:09:52Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Well, I sure hope so. I went to help phonebank at the local Obama campaign office on Sat. night and found, to my surprise, that they weren’t phonebanking that night. Looked like they were closing up for the night at just a little after 7pm. Hmm. Incompetence, overconfidence or something else…? Hurricane precaution? ---
**Author:** ![MsWhatsit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/eb8c5e/32.png) [@MsWhatsit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MsWhatsit)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1151 "2012-10-29T03:11:13Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Hurricane precaution? Not in Ohio on Saturday. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 4:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1152 "2012-10-29T04:39:23Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > The _Des Moines Register,_ which should know better, has endorsed Romney: [http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20121027/OPINION03/121026026/0/NEWS/?odyssey=nav|head](http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20121027/OPINION03/121026026/0/NEWS/?odyssey=nav%7Chead) I like this sentence best (emphasis & numbering mine): “Our discussion repeatedly circled back to **the nation’s single most important challenge** : [1]pulling the economy out of the doldrums, [2]getting more Americans back in the workforce in meaningful jobs with promising futures, **and** [3]getting the federal government on a track to balance the budget in a bipartisan manner that the country demands.” :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 6:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1153 "2012-10-29T06:08:59Z")
Must make those who highlighted the Salt Lake City paper feel stupid. The Des Moines Register endorsing Romney is by far the biggest deal when it comes to newspaper endorsements. They haven’t endorsed a REpublican since Nixon. ---
**Author:** ![Kevbo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/e47774/32.png) [@Kevbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kevbo)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 9:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1154 "2012-10-29T09:59:35Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > They haven’t endorsed a REpublican since Nixon. Wow! Unusually poor taste in republicans that paper has. Strange, like Yoda I am posting. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 10:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1155 "2012-10-29T10:38:22Z")
Nixon was running against McGovern, who while definitely the better man, was probably the worst Presidential candidate in the 20th century. I’d suspect there are a lot of papers normally Democratic that endorsed Nixon in 1972. Anyway, Romney swept the Iowa paper endorsements, getting all four major dailies. Be interesting to see if that makes a difference in Iowa. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 11:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1156 "2012-10-29T11:05:47Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The Des Moines Register endorsing Romney is by far the biggest deal when it comes to newspaper endorsements. They haven’t endorsed a REpublican since Nixon. The Register picked Nixon? You sure that is the factoid you want to push? What should I conclude from that? That whenever the Register picks a Republican, vote for the other guy? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 11:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1157 "2012-10-29T11:18:02Z")
Laaaame. 🙂 It was 1972. A newspaper can’t be questioned on its judgement when it supported a candidate that won 49 states. ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 11:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1158 "2012-10-29T11:35:47Z")
When he wins by committing criminal acts, I’ll question its judgment plenty, thanks. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 11:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1159 "2012-10-29T11:39:30Z")
But of course the Democrats endorsed from 1976 to 2008, that was just evidence of wisdom on their part. ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 11:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1160 "2012-10-29T11:44:51Z")
Exactly. If I were asked to provide one sign of Republicans’ having no sense of shame, just balls-out denial that they’ve been wrong when they’ve provably wrong, it would be their overwhelming joyous pride in Nixon’s victory over McGovern in 1972. ---
**Author:** ![MsWhatsit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/eb8c5e/32.png) [@MsWhatsit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MsWhatsit)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 12:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1161 "2012-10-29T12:07:52Z")
Oh my God. This is a microcosmic example of everything that’s wrong with our country. No, the Des Moines Register could not have reasonably be expected in 1972 to realize that they were endorsing a guy who had committed the crimes that Nixon committed. There is nothing unreasonable at all about their endorsement. No, that fact has zip-all to do with today’s political situation. People, we are seriously in here fighting about what deeper meaning the _Des Moines fucking Register_’s presidential endorsement has. Come on. There’s only like a week to go. Hold it together. We can do this. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=57) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=59)