# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 60
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1182 "2012-10-29T19:42:04Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > But have a third actually voted? Ohio reports that a million people have voted: > > Early, in-person voting started Oct. 2 in Ohio, and already more than a million people have voted in a state where 5.7 million did so in 2008. > > [http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-29/democrats-hold-early-voting-advantage-over-republicans.html](http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-29/democrats-hold-early-voting-advantage-over-republicans.html) > > So actually, less than 20% have already voted. A lot of Obama supporters are saying they voted but haven’t yet. The only way the poll is right is if turnout is going to be a heck of a lot lower than in 2008. The poll essentially predicts turnout of only 3 million+ I think this is the key phrase: “A \*Time \*magazine poll of likely Ohio voters last week showed Obama with a 2-to-1 lead, 60 percent to 30 percent, among those who have already voted.” When the poll was done - _last week_ - a million had voted, favoring Obama 2-1. As of now, a third have voted. Don’t know what the edge is anymore. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1183 "2012-10-29T19:44:33Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Laaaame. 🙂 > > It was 1972. A newspaper can’t be questioned on its judgement when it supported a candidate that won 49 states. EVERYBODY can be questioned on their judgement when a toe-rag like RMN takes the EV of 49 states. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1184 "2012-10-29T19:51:49Z")
CNN has a poll which shows Romney up by 1 in Florida (and tied if you include third party candidates). The last four polls in Florida show a dead heat, in fact a tiny Obama lead of .25%. And this poll shows Obama up by 6 points among registered voters which means that his ground game has the raw material to pull off a victory. Nate rates Obama only at 38% presumably because of earlier polling and variables like “state fundamentals” but I honestly woudn’t be too surprised if Obama pulls this out of the bag. ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1185 "2012-10-29T19:53:26Z")
Incidentally, **Nate Silver** will be [doing a talk here in Chicag](http://www.chicagohumanities.org/Genres/Public-Affairs/2012f-Nate-Silver-Baseball-and-Politics.aspx)o for the Humanities Festival on November 9th. Topic is “Baseball and Politics: The Numbers Don’t Lie”. I’ll be there. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1186 "2012-10-29T20:21:44Z")
> [@filmore](#): > > This seems like huge problem for polling. I virtually never answer my phone from an unknown number. During political season, it’s almost always from some robo-politician painting the other candidate as a boogeyman. And I have gotten a few survey calls, but I’m reluctant to respond because I don’t trust they are actually conducting a poll (e.g. “If you found out McCain had an illegitimate black baby, would that change your vote?”)… I don’t answer my cellphone if I don’t recognize the number, either, but if a pollster left a message on my voicemail, I would call back. But then, I’m a political junkie and strong Obama supporter. A push poll would only amuse me. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1187 "2012-10-29T20:27:17Z")
It’s gonna be an Obama blow-out because the polls are easily underestimating the Latino turnout. Wow, that was fun and easy. ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1188 "2012-10-29T20:35:24Z")
It’s going to be an Obama blowout because Republicans will be staying home to watch the Finding Bigfoot marathon on Animal Planet. Wow, this IS fun! Now I totally get why keep OMG & Adaher (et al) keep posting around here. It’s a good time. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1189 "2012-10-29T20:44:00Z")
So wrong. It’s the Ancient Aliens marathon that’s going to do them in. No red blooded Republican would be watching Animal Planet…get real! ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1190 "2012-10-29T20:56:37Z")
It’s going to be a blowout for Obama because the guy at [doublyskewedpolls.com](http://doublyskewedpolls.com) adds an extra layer of gooey Democratic ID to the sample, and Obama has a 15 point lead. ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1191 "2012-10-29T21:10:55Z")
> [@bup](#): > > It’s going to be a blowout for Obama because the guy at [doublyskewedpolls.com](http://doublyskewedpolls.com) adds an extra layer of gooey Democratic ID to the sample, and Obama has a 15 point lead. Damn. I actually tried going to that url, hoping it was real. Now I’m sad ☹ I wanted to see an all Blue map except for like 8 states. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1192 "2012-10-29T21:31:34Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > But have a third actually voted? Ohio reports that a million people have voted: > > Early, in-person voting started Oct. 2 in Ohio, and already more than a million people have voted in a state where 5.7 million did so in 2008. > > [http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-29/democrats-hold-early-voting-advantage-over-republicans.html](http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-29/democrats-hold-early-voting-advantage-over-republicans.html) > > So actually, less than 20% have already voted. A lot of Obama supporters are saying they voted but haven’t yet. The only way the poll is right is if turnout is going to be a heck of a lot lower than in 2008. The poll essentially predicts turnout of only 3 million+ This is certainly possible (the NRO-inspired theory that early voting numbers are bogus because the percent reporting “already voted” is too high). I would counter with two points. First, this is not the first time early voting has been used, nor the first time pollsters have asked about it. In 2008 (when almost 30% of Ohio voters voted early) the poll were spot-on (i.e. there was no “likely voter” error due to early voter reporting). In fact, the final RCP average in Ohio was O+2.5 - he ended up winning by 4. If early voting is skewing pre-election polls in Ohio this year, why didn’t they in 2008? Second, the type of people that vote early likely have a decent amount of overlap with the \<10% of people that actual answer polls (political junkies). If you can show me some examples of pre-2008-election polls with abnormally large “early vote” subgroups that were ultimately biased towards Obama I’ll start putting a little more credence in this claim. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1193 "2012-10-29T21:50:21Z")
If we consider the 9 toss-up states (CO, IA, FL, NC, NH, NV, OH, VA,WI) as deciding the election, there are 512 different configurations of those states. Obama wins the EV in 431 of them, Romney in 76, and 5 end up in a tie… This 85% of the scenarios for Obama is what makes the path for Romney so narrow. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1194 "2012-10-29T22:16:32Z")
That assumes that each race is completely independent of the other, when in fact, Romney’s fortunes tend to go up or down in the states all at once. If Romney is actually up by 5 as Gallup thinks he is, then he sweeps all of those states. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1195 "2012-10-29T22:24:04Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > That assumes that each race is completely independent of the other, when in fact, Romney’s fortunes tend to go up or down in the states all at once. If Romney is actually up by 5 as Gallup thinks he is, then he sweeps all of those states. I didn’t assume anything, these are just the permutations and it highlights the narrow margin within Romney must operate. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1196 "2012-10-29T22:25:39Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > That assumes that each race is completely independent of the other, when in fact, Romney’s fortunes tend to go up or down in the states all at once. If Romney is actually up by 5 as Gallup thinks he is, then he sweeps all of those states. That’s true- if Gallup’s right, Romney will probably win. If the vast majority of the polls are right, then Obama will probably win. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2012, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1197 "2012-10-30T03:56:27Z")
An inconvenient reminder for Romney - in a June 2011 New Hampshire GOP debate, he supported defunding FEMA: [Mitt Romney In GOP Debate: Shut Down Federal Disaster Agency, Send Responsibility To The States | HuffPost Latest News](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/28/mitt-romney-fema_n_2036198.html?ref=topbar) ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2012, 4:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1198 "2012-10-30T04:06:32Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > An inconvenient reminder for Romney - in a June 2011 New Hampshire GOP debate, he supported defunding FEMA: [Mitt Romney In GOP Debate: Shut Down Federal Disaster Agency, Send Responsibility To The States | HuffPost Latest News](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/28/mitt-romney-fema_n_2036198.html?ref=topbar) Think a Super Pac is making an ad right now? ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2012, 4:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1199 "2012-10-30T04:23:12Z")
Obama dropped to 73% probably because of that Rasmussen Ohio poll. However there was also a late Mellman Ohio poll which shows Obama up by 5 which will probably raise him a point or so on 538. It’s remarkable how close the overall winning percentage tracks the Ohio one. Unfortunately 538 doesn’t give us the state-by-state history for the winning percentage but my sense is that the Ohio and national percentage are usually within a point or two of each other. You would certainly expect a high correlation but it’s been a bit higher than I would have guessed. Anyway we are about to enter a zone of murkiness for a few days. The campaign is effectively suspended and polling will be erratic. I think Sandy is going to have a big impact on the election and we will just have to wait and see how it pans out. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2012, 4:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1200 "2012-10-30T04:33:43Z")
In what way might Romney turn out to be a lot like Al Gore? By winning the popular vote but losing in the Electoral College: [Examiner is back - Examiner.com](http://www.examiner.com/article/if-the-polls-are-right-romney-will-win-the-popular-vote-and-lose-the-election?CID=obinsite) ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2012, 8:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1201 "2012-10-30T08:56:23Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > In what way might Romney turn out to be a lot like Al Gore? By winning the popular vote but losing in the Electoral College: [StockBot by Examiner.com - Stock Examiner bot by Examiner.com](http://www.examiner.com/article/if-the-polls-are-right-romney-will-win-the-popular-vote-and-lose-the-election?CID=obinsite) Boring, wealthy son of a politician? Yes, 538 has long been reporting the chances (acc to it’s model) of either brand of electoral/popular flip. I’m actually surprised that the Romney pop/Obama elec number hasn’t been higher – I don’t think it’s gotten above 6 percent. My gut feeling is that the chances of this happening are more like in the 15 to 20 percent range. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=59) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=61)