# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 63
**Author:** ![MsWhatsit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/eb8c5e/32.png) [@MsWhatsit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MsWhatsit)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1242 "2012-10-31T16:23:52Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Because it goes against conservative principles. Lots of conservative actions go against conservative principles. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1243 "2012-10-31T16:33:23Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > No idea about weighting, because it’s not important to what I said, but crosstabs are here. > > FL is D+7 at 37D/30R/29I > OH is D+8 at 37D/29R/30I > VA is D+8 at 35R/27R/35I > > To compare to 2008: > > FL was D+3 at 37D/34R/29I > OH was D+8 at 39D/31R/30I > VA was D+6 at 39D/33R/27I > > Unless you want to argue that Obama is going to get, or exceed, his 2008 turnout, good luck defending that. > > (And that’s without getting into the enthusiasm gap or the double digit swing in Independents.) If it was just one poll, or a couple, then I’d think you’d have a point. But almost all the polls are showing a Democratic “turnout advantage”, based on self-reported party ID. Most of the polls don’t correct for it- they just report what the respondents say. And this is what the polls say. Sure, it might be wrong, but it might be wrong in the other direction too- Obama could be ahead nationally by 5 instead of neck and neck. We’ll see on Nov 6, but historically every losing side tries to find stuff wrong with the polls- and there’s always something that can be found that looks weird. And historically, the folks who bet against the polls (taken as a whole) have been wrong. I’d need evidence to believe the polls are wrong- and that evidence may come on Nov 6th. But pointing out stuff inside the polls (not just one, but most of the polls) that just looks weird to you isn’t enough. And one more thing, that’s been repeated over and over again by “my side” (AKA the fans of Nate Silver)- both the pollsters themselves and the analysts/aggregators like Nate say that you can’t learn much by focusing on Party ID- it’s fluid, it’s not a demographic, and it just doesn’t tell you much about the poll. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1244 "2012-10-31T16:34:13Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > It’s highly unlikely they would buck national trends and see a sudden and rapid increase in Democratic affiliation whereas the exact opposite has occurred outside of the country. I’ve been over this before, but data tells us that Democratic affiliation across the U.S. is down whereas Republican affiliation has shown minimal change or, in some cases, large increases. OMG, what’s your source for that? Gallup has Democrats (including ‘leaners’) [almost exactly where they were in October 2008.](http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx) Republicans have increased a few points, but Democrats still have a 7 point advantage. This may be where we can stop talking at cross-purposes. I think your guiding axiom - that Democrats are over-sampled - is not supported by the data. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1245 "2012-10-31T16:49:27Z")
Well here is Dick Morris, perpetually wrong prognosticator, wiht his take: [Here Comes the Landslide](http://thehill.com/opinion/columnists/dick-morris/264935-here-comes-the-landslide) > [@](#): > > His erosion began shortly after the conventions when Indiana (10 votes) and North Carolina (15) moved to Romney (in addition to the 179 votes that states that McCain carried cast this year). > > Then, in October, Obama lost the Southern swing states of Florida (29) and Virginia (13). He also lost Colorado (10), bringing his total to 255 votes. > > And now, he faces the erosion of the northern swing states: Ohio (18), New Hampshire (4) and Iowa (6). Only in the union-anchored state of Nevada (9) does Obama still cling to a lead. And if that isn’t rich enough: > [@](#): > > The most likely outcome? Eight GOP takeaways and two giveaways for a net gain of six. A 53-47 Senate, just like we have now, only opposite. ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1246 "2012-10-31T16:55:14Z")
[Voters say Obama will win](http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/83085.html?hp=f1) > [@](#): > > A group of people who have accurately predicted the winner of the popular vote in the past four presidential elections thinks President Barack Obama is headed for a second term: the American people. > > Fifty-four percent of Americans think Obama will win the election, compared with 32 percent who predict a Romney victory, according to Gallup polling released Wednesday but conducted before Hurricane Sandy struck the East Coast. Eleven percent have no opinion. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1247 "2012-10-31T16:56:42Z")
[Quote=Omg a Black Conservative] That’s quite easy to do when you either: (1) \*\*Assume \*\*Democrats will, at least, double their turnout from 2008 or (2) \*\*Assume \*\*Republican turnout will be depressed in 2012 more than it was in 2008 [emphasis added] [/quote] > [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > No idea about weighting, because it’s not important to what I said It is indeed quite easy to achieve this result when you _assume_ a certain party ID distribution–i.e., you weight the sample by party ID. That is very different from achieving the result by random sampling and it happens to break down along a certain party ID distribution. I find it hard to believe that you still don’t understand the difference. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1248 "2012-10-31T16:59:13Z")
There’s a poll coming out in six days. Should shed some light on this campaign. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1249 "2012-10-31T17:00:33Z")
If 2000 is any indication, six days will still be too early to say whether Romney has lost. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1250 "2012-10-31T17:31:02Z")
Another PPP poll showing Obama +5 in Ohio along with a U Cincinnati poll +2. There was also a VA poll showing Romney +5 in VA which muddies that state a bit. However Obama doesn’t need VA. He now has a very solid path to 270 in states where he has consistently polled better for months: Nevada, Wisconsin and Ohio. What he doesn’t yet have is a really solid plan B. If he somehow loses Ohio he has perfectly reasonable chances of winning through Colorado, Virginia or even Florida but he hasn’t nailed any of those yet and may not till election day. VA may well remain in a very confused state of polling because of Sandy and I suspect Florida will remain close till the end. However I could see him moving 3-4 ahead in CO though if loses OH he will need CO, Iowa and NH. At the moment that looks like his most likely plan B. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1251 "2012-10-31T18:02:17Z")
> [@Gangster\_Octopus](#): > > Well here is Dick Morris, perpetually wrong prognosticator, wiht his take: [Here Comes the Landslide](http://thehill.com/opinion/columnists/dick-morris/264935-here-comes-the-landslide) Whelp, that’s what I was waiting for. To answer the OP - now that Dick Morris has predicted a Romney landslide: no. No, it is, as of right now, not too early to say Romney has lost. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1252 "2012-10-31T18:03:30Z")
Here’s a challenge: what’s the most recent significant prediction that Dick Morris was correct about? Define significant however you like. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1253 "2012-10-31T18:47:19Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Here’s a challenge: what’s the most recent significant prediction that Dick Morris was correct about? > > Define significant however you like. That Clinton could win in 1996? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1254 "2012-10-31T18:52:34Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Here’s a challenge: what’s the most recent significant prediction that Dick Morris was correct about? > > Define significant however you like. That he’ll still be invited to prognosticate on FoxNews for years to come? ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1255 "2012-10-31T19:01:12Z")
I’m not sure Dick Morris could predict the days of the week. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1256 "2012-10-31T19:02:19Z")
I thought he at least would have predicted a huge Romney win for the first debate, but as far as I can tell, he only did so for the second and third debates. If that doesn’t prove he is a reverse-truthteller, I don’t know what does. ---
**Author:** ![Belowjob2.0](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Belowjob2.0](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Belowjob2.0)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1257 "2012-10-31T20:07:59Z")
I’ll say it: Romney has lost. Seriously, he needs a surge. If he hasn’t gotten it by Wednesday morning, he won’t get it. Done. Thanks for playing. Feel free to select from one of our fabulous consolation prizes. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1258 "2012-10-31T20:08:04Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Because it goes against conservative principles. And amending the U.S. Constitution is rarely an easy thing to do. If a serious movement got started to do this it would likely lose steam before the process was finished. > [@MsWhatsit](#): > > Lots of conservative actions go against conservative principles. Well, there’s that too… ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1259 "2012-10-31T20:20:09Z")
Did anybody see the meteor that fell out of the sky and smashed into Romney’s polling numbers today? It left a smoking crater and a giant debris field made up of little pieces of fake momentum. Seriously, Obama up 1 in Florida, 2 in Virginia, and up five or more in Iowa, Ohio & Wisconsin. Nate Silver’s model spiked up big time. For Obama, that is. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1260 "2012-10-31T20:22:55Z")
Probably bounce from the storm. As far as I can tell, it was very well handled by Obama et al…and Romney didn’t distinguish himself at all (in any sort of positive light anyway). Probably the death knell for Romney this close to the election. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1261 "2012-10-31T20:23:00Z")
> [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](#): > > Did anybody see the meteor that fell out of the sky and smashed into Romney’s polling numbers today? It left a smoking crater and a giant debris field made up of little pieces of fake momentum. > > Seriously, Obama up 1 in Florida, 2 in Virginia, and up five or more in Iowa, Ohio & Wisconsin. Nate Silver’s model spiked up big time. For Obama, that is. Plus a [national poll](http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/poll-obama-reaches-50-percent-leads-romney-by) with Obama up by 5. No one poll tells the whole story, of course, but the polling over the last few days have showed movement in Obama’s direction. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=62) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=64)