# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 68
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1342 "2012-11-01T18:52:48Z")
Oh, that was little mean. 5-yard penalty for unnecessary roughness. Also, you missed a ‘o’ in ‘too’. Play will resume from the spot of the infraction!🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1343 "2012-11-01T19:09:07Z")
> [@Truman\_Burbank](#): > > Oh, that was little mean. 5-yard penalty for unnecessary roughness. Also, you missed a ‘o’ in ‘too’. > Play will resume from the spot of the infraction!🙂 You missed an “a” and started a sentence with a numeral digit. Penalties offset. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1344 "2012-11-01T19:20:21Z")
> [@Truman\_Burbank](#): > > Oh, that was little mean. 5-yard penalty for unnecessary roughness. Also, you missed a ‘o’ in ‘too’. > Play will resume from the spot of the infraction!🙂 Unnecessary roughness is always 15 yards. ---
**Author:** ![LinusK](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/258eb7/32.png) [@LinusK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LinusK)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1345 "2012-11-01T19:20:22Z")
OMG, I know I read this before, and maybe I’m a little bit slow. But my state doesn’t register by political party, so I’m not too familiar with what it means to be “registered”. But it means- does it not? - that you chose to vote in either the D or R party primary? And if that’s the case, wouldn’t you expect to see rising registrations whenever there was an exciting primary? And maybe falling registrations when there was not? But in any case, registration doesn’t actually control who you vote for in the general, right? Take this guy, for example: > [@](#): > > Ok, I moved here to Florida over a year ago and when I registered to vote I chose “Independent”. I went that way because in every other state I’ve lived in, if you’re Independent you can choose which party’s primary you want to vote in on primary voting day. I found out later that Florida requires you to register as a Republican in order to vote in the primary. > > I asked at the tag office (where I registered to vote) how I could change my registration and they had no idea. I have checked online and it said to do it at the tag office. > > How do I switch from Independent to Republican so that I’ll be able to vote in the Republican primary? Would you say, "this guy wants to register as a R, so that shows Romney’s going to win? ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1346 "2012-11-01T19:26:22Z")
Mayor Bloomberg [has endorsed Obama](http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/02/nyregion/bloomberg-endorses-obama-saying-hurricane-sandy-affected-decision.html?_r=0), based on his views on climate change. Not sure if this help at all, but it sure doesn’t hurt. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1347 "2012-11-01T19:30:15Z")
> [@Bob Ducca](#): > > Mayor Bloomberg [has endorsed Obama](http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/02/nyregion/bloomberg-endorses-obama-saying-hurricane-sandy-affected-decision.html?_r=0), based on his views on climate change. > > Not sure if this help at all, but it sure doesn’t hurt. Well, I doubt Obama really needed the endorsement to win NYC. But the timing probably helps him a little nationally, as it feeds into the narrative of “Republican\* leaders of storm-hit areas impressed by Obama’s leadership”. \*(or former Republicans, in Bloombergs case) ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1348 "2012-11-01T19:38:09Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > Yes my question is how you count early votes as D and R when apparently Ohio doesn’t have traditional party registration if you believe that WaPo piece… Yes, it does. Last time I checked, you pick any of the major parties, or independent, at the time you register to vote here in the Buckeye State. You can then vote in the primaries of that party; independents can’t vote in any primary. You’re free to hop over to another party at any time. It used to be you could do so on a primary election day at the time you vote, but I think that may have changed. ---
**Author:** ![Gagundathar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a183cd/32.png) [@Gagundathar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gagundathar)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1349 "2012-11-01T19:40:12Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Two bits of good economic news for the President: [Hiring jumps in October, according to ADP; initial claims fall](http://money.cnn.com/2012/11/01/news/economy/adp-jobs-initial-claims/index.html) Good article, but did anyone else notice how truly creepy the first guy in line in the first image looked? His eyes seemed to be glowing, and he had a ‘they laughed at me at the Science Academy’ kind of look about him. Plus, he was holding a bunch of pictures of what appeared to be horses. I am trying not to be judgmental here, but that jumped off the screen at me. ---
**Author:** ![BlueOhio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/439d5e/32.png) [@BlueOhio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlueOhio)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1350 "2012-11-01T19:43:53Z")
For Ohio primary voting, they ask you which ballot you would like. You can switch off from primary-to-primary if you want. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1351 "2012-11-01T19:45:08Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Yes, it does. Last time I checked, you pick any of the major parties, or independent, at the time you register to vote here in the Buckeye State. You can then vote in the primaries of that party; independents can’t vote in any primary. You’re free to hop over to another party at any time. It used to be you could do so on a primary election day at the time you vote, but I think that may have changed. There is (at least now) no party registration when you register to vote. Voting in a primary registers you in that party, but until you vote in a primary you have no party, and you can only change your party by voting in another primary. I registered to vote in 2006, but I didn’t become a registered Democrat until 2008 when the first Democratic primary happened that I could vote in (I live in quite a red county, and there were just no Democrats on the ballot in 2007). The only thing party registration really affects is your ability to sign candidates’ petitions. A Republican candidate has to get Republican signatures, etc. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1352 "2012-11-01T20:17:20Z")
> [@LinusK](#): > > And if that’s the case, wouldn’t you expect to see rising registrations whenever there was an exciting primary? And maybe falling registrations when there was not? :smack: That’s the reason. Thank you, **LinusK**. The Democratic primary was uncontested this year. I bet if you broke down the analysis into congressional districts, you’d see more Democratic registrations in districts with a real Democratic primary, and fewer in ones that didn’t (smaller trend than for president, of course). You have reconciled [del]quantum physics with relativity[/del] **OMG** ’s observation that Democratic registrations were worse than Republican registration, with the state polls that say Obama is in a much better position than Romney. ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1353 "2012-11-01T20:18:23Z")
New SuperPAC ad airing in Ohio tells African Americans to vote for Romney because Lincoln freed the slaves. [Seriously.](http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/11/blacks-should-vote-republican-ad-ohio.php?ref=fpblg) ---
**Author:** ![Feyrat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/fbc32d/32.png) [@Feyrat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Feyrat)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1354 "2012-11-01T20:23:58Z")
Yes, it’s too early to say Romney has lost. Because the GOP goons can still just dispose of votes they don’t like. As they have done before. Oh, look. Florida. [http://americablog.com/2012/11/computer-glitch-votes-black-florida-county-election-fraud.html](http://americablog.com/2012/11/computer-glitch-votes-black-florida-county-election-fraud.html) ---
**Author:** ![Dob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b2d939/32.png) [@Dob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dob)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1355 "2012-11-01T20:51:44Z")
Would be funny if the polls are wrong, just in the wrong direction. Maybe Obama is just polling really low and on election day he wins by 4 points in the general. If a poll can be off one way, you have to accept the fact it can also be off the other way just as bad. So if Romney is “really” up but the polls are wrong you have to follow it out and say Obama is only up just a little because the polls are wrong. ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1356 "2012-11-01T21:05:44Z")
The Economist [has endorsed Obama](http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21565623-america-could-do-better-barack-obama-sadly-mitt-romney-does-not-fit-bill-which-one?fsrc=scn/rd_ec/which_one_), the first time they have ever endorsed an incumbent president. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1357 "2012-11-01T21:07:13Z")
> [@Bob Ducca](#): > > The Economist [has endorsed Obama](http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21565623-america-could-do-better-barack-obama-sadly-mitt-romney-does-not-fit-bill-which-one?fsrc=scn/rd_ec/which_one_), the first time they have ever endorsed an incumbent president. Wow, really? I find that rather odd and funny (in both senses of the word). ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1358 "2012-11-01T21:25:31Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Wow, really? I find that rather odd and funny (in both senses of the word). They’ve endorsed Democrats the last two cycles (including Obama in '08) as well, so its not that surprising (though they endorsed Bush over Gore and Dole over Clinton). What’s stranger is that they endorsed Cameron in '10 for his planned austerity measures, and then in their current endorsement are praising Obama’s stimulus plan. Obviously Britain isn’t the US, so I guess differences in the two countries might justify it, but one would think the Economist would have a more settled opinion of economic issues if nothing else. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1359 "2012-11-01T21:36:34Z")
> [@Dob](#): > > Would be funny if the polls are wrong, just in the wrong direction. Maybe Obama is just polling really low and on election day he wins by 4 points in the general. If a poll can be off one way, you have to accept the fact it can also be off the other way just as bad. > > So if Romney is “really” up but the polls are wrong you have to follow it out and say Obama is only up just a little because the polls are wrong. Isn’t this sort of what Nate Silver is suggesting (I could be wrong)? He is using both the national and state polls to come up with his ultimate numbers, but those polls diverge somewhat, and he is tending to favor the state numbers as being historically more accurate. But if that is true, and the state numbers are more accurate, then averaging those low number in is causing the prediction to be more in Romney’s favor than reality; perhaps more toward [Sam Wang](http://election.princeton.edu/)’s numbers. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1360 "2012-11-01T21:43:09Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > What’s stranger is that they endorsed Cameron in '10 for his planned austerity measures, and then in their current endorsement are praising Obama’s stimulus plan. Obviously Britain isn’t the US, so I guess differences in the two countries might justify it, but one would think the Economist would have a more settled opinion of economic issues if nothing else. I think their position, like most mainstream economists, is that stimulus is warranted during the technical recession, but that after short-term stimulus it is necessary to put the country on a path to make the long-term deficits smaller. You could argue that Cameron went to austerity too fast, or before sufficient stimulus, but then I think you do get down to muddy facts and away from overarching economic principle. ---
**Author:** ![C3](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/c3/32/3108_2.png) [@C3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/C3)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1361 "2012-11-01T21:47:53Z")
A little Nate Silver [cartoon](http://www.newyorker.com/cartoons/daily/sipress#slide=1) for everyone (11/1/12 slide, in case it changes tomorrow). [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=67) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=69)