# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 72
**Author:** ![2ManyTacos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/2/3da27b/32.png) [@2ManyTacos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2ManyTacos)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1422 "2012-11-02T15:28:33Z")
Obama got a [really strong poll](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_romney_vs_obama-2030.html) out of New Hampshire today showing him up +6. I don’t know how much longer Romney can realistically hope to carry that state. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1423 "2012-11-02T15:31:38Z")
> [@2ManyTacos](#): > > Obama got a [really strong poll](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_romney_vs_obama-2030.html) out of New Hampshire today showing him up +6. I don’t know how much longer Romney can realistically hope to carry that state. Sure, but did you see the internals? 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1424 "2012-11-02T15:57:26Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > This is getting to be pretty pointless. The debate will be settled in a few days, you can’t argue against “the polls are all wrong”. I agree. **adaher** and his ilk have placed their flag on the hill of the “polls are wrong”, the rest of us have placed it on “the polls reflect reality”. At this point it is pointless to continue trying to outwit the other side. Whoever wins will win and then we can do some post-hoc neener-neener. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1425 "2012-11-02T16:08:59Z")
> [@Gangster\_Octopus](#): > > At this point it is pointless to continue trying to outwit the other side. Whoever wins will win and then we can do some post-hoc neener-neener. I, for one, am _really_ looking forward to this post-hoc neener-neener. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1426 "2012-11-02T16:15:59Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I simply don’t believe that Ohio has gotten more blue since 2008 or 2010. I think the best Obama can hope for is for Ohio to mirror the national results. If Obama performs better in Ohio than nationally, that is actually a pretty important change. If Obama wins (and I believe he will), he will have done so on the strength of much more capable campaign tacticians than Romney has. They pinpointed Ohio from the very start and have been attacking Romney there since the GOP primaries. I could see Ohio shifting more than “normal” relative the the nation because Camp Obama has been making it their primary focus for nearly a year. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1427 "2012-11-02T16:33:16Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Quite true, but there’s a reason that states fall pretty predictably red or blue in Presidential races. I simply don’t believe that Ohio has gotten more blue since 2008 or 2010. I think the best Obama can hope for is for Ohio to mirror the national results. You know that Obama’s been campaigning in Ohio a lot more than the average state, don’t you? Is it a teensy-bit possible that the heavily campaigned (let’s call them “swing”) states will behave differently than the national trend? ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1428 "2012-11-02T16:40:06Z")
After the latest jobs report, I will stick my neck out and call it for Obama. He has the state polls, he has the momentum, he has the narrative and he has the ground game. I think his chances of winning are now above 90%. ---
**Author:** ![MOIDALIZE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e274bd/32.png) [@MOIDALIZE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MOIDALIZE)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1429 "2012-11-02T16:44:12Z")
But does he have the pundits??? ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1430 "2012-11-02T16:50:22Z")
> [@2ManyTacos](#): > > Obama got a [really strong poll](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_romney_vs_obama-2030.html) out of New Hampshire today showing him up +6. I don’t know how much longer Romney can realistically hope to carry that state. Democrats were clearly oversampled, don’tcha know. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1431 "2012-11-02T17:05:37Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > To amend the Constitution to eliminate those extra 2 votes per state, you would need 38 states to agree; 13 states can block an amendment (3/4 of 50 states are required for a constitutional amendment; US Constitution, Art. V) > … > > Of those, 7 have only 3 electoral votes, so the proposed amendment would result in them losing 2/3 of their electoral influence. > > What combination of these states would you see as supporting the proposed amendment, to make it a relatively easy fix? Thanks for doing the math – I was too lazy to do it myself. You are quite right. Not likely to happen. ---
**Author:** ![LinusK](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/258eb7/32.png) [@LinusK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LinusK)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1432 "2012-11-02T17:12:47Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Say **adaher** , you may not have caught this the last 99 times it was posted, but voters’ affilliation is not a static thing - it can can (and does) change. There are many more independents now than there were years ago. The reason? Many folks who would have formerly identified as “Republican voter” now call themselves “Independent voter”. You have even been presented with numbers and graphs that show this. > > It is therefore not a surprise that these “new independents, formerly Republicans” would tend to say in a poll that they intend to vote for Romney. > > 4 years ago, they would have shown up in polls as “Republicans who intend to vote for McCain”. Now these SAME PEOPLE show up as “Independents who intend to vote for Romney”. > > I hope that this 100th repetition will sink in. > > I also hope for a pony that poops skittles. That’s kind of gross, isn’t it? I mean, wouldn’t the skittles be covered in poop? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1433 "2012-11-02T17:16:55Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Thanks for doing the math – I was too lazy to do it myself. You are quite right. Not likely to happen. The direct approach isn’t going to happen, no, but there’s a way around it. The[National Popular Vote Bill](http://www.nationalpopularvote.com/) has been passed already in 9 of the 51 electoral entities, totaling 132 EV’s. As soon as the bill is passed by entities adding up to at least 270, the EC majority, they will all give all their EV’s to the national popular vote winner, making him/her the President regardless of the Constitution’s archaicism. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1434 "2012-11-02T17:26:35Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > The direct approach isn’t going to happen, no, but there’s a way around it. The[National Popular Vote Bill](http://www.nationalpopularvote.com/) has been passed already in 9 of the 51 electoral entities, totaling 132 EV’s. As soon as the bill is passed by entities adding up to at least 270, the EC majority, they will all give all their EV’s to the national popular vote winner, making him/her the President regardless of the Constitution’s archaicism. I really worry about this. What stops a state that signs the compact from passing a bill that overturns it between the election and the day electors vote? Or even adding a state constitutional measure on the same ballot as the presidential race that overturns the statute? And what if it’s really close but there are irregularities in, say, Texas. Can California force a recount in Texas to avoid having to give their votes to the GOP candidate? I’d much rather a real Constitutional solution or just sticking with the current system, which at least has some advantages to offset the clear disadvantages. ---
**Author:** ![Belowjob2.0](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Belowjob2.0](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Belowjob2.0)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1435 "2012-11-02T17:28:24Z")
> [@Gangster\_Octopus](#): > > I agree. **adaher** and his ilk have placed their flag on the hill of the “polls are wrong”, the rest of us have placed it on “the polls reflect reality”. At this point it is pointless to continue trying to outwit the other side. Whoever wins will win and then we can do some post-hoc neener-neener. No “neener-neener for me.” Taunting the mentally ill does not end well. Are the legions of right wingers shouting, “ROMNEY WILL WIN IN A LANDSLIDE!” delusional or pathological? ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1436 "2012-11-02T17:29:17Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > I really worry about this. > > What stops a state that signs the compact from passing a bill that overturns it between the election and the day electors vote? Or even adding a state constitutional measure on the same ballot as the presidential race that overturns the statute? > > And what if it’s really close but there are irregularities in, say, Texas. Can California force a recount in Texas to avoid having to give their votes to the GOP candidate? > > I’d much rather a real Constitutional solution or just sticking with the current system, which at least has some advantages to offset the clear disadvantages. You’re overthinking. It’s a means of getting a Constitutional solution. ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1437 "2012-11-02T17:30:21Z")
> [@Belowjob2.0](#): > > Taunting the mentally ill does not end well. But it is fun. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1438 "2012-11-02T17:38:14Z")
> [@Belowjob2.0](#): > > Are the legions of right wingers shouting, “ROMNEY WILL WIN IN A LANDSLIDE!” delusional or pathological? _Legions_? ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1439 "2012-11-02T17:39:07Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Democrats were clearly oversampled, don’tcha know. No crosstabs, so you wouldn’t be able to tell. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1440 "2012-11-02T17:40:04Z")
> [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](#): > > You’re overthinking. It’s a means of getting a Constitutional solution. Explain how? You think that if enough states sign on then an amendment will pass? Why? Do you have a response to any of the concerns I’ve outlined. Right now if Texas (for example) royally screws up their vote total they only effect Texas. But if they do so under this plan they can throw the entire election. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1441 "2012-11-02T17:40:14Z")
> [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](#): > > You’re overthinking. It’s a means of getting a Constitutional solution. I will be surprised if enough states approve it for it to ever go into effect. I also suspect if it does happen it will end up tied up in court. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=71) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=73)