# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 75
**Author:** ![DMark](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e68b1a/32.png) [@DMark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMark)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1482 "2012-11-03T16:55:35Z")
> [@Ca3799](#): > > This probably has already been discussed here and if so, please direct me there, but is there anything to prevent electoral votes from being arbitrarily switched from Obama to Romney? Well, other than rioting in streets and armed combat with the National Guard, probably no reason they couldn’t just up and switch electoral votes after the fact. ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1483 "2012-11-03T17:04:42Z")
> [@MOIDALIZE](#): > > They must feel Florida is in play, because Bill Clinton just finished up some campaigning down there. Sometimes they campaign in a state to _make you think_ it’s in play, even if it’s not. That’s why Romney was just in Pennsylvania, where \* [every single poll in the past 6 months](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/pa/pennsylvania_romney_vs_obama-1891.html)\* shows Obama ahead. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1484 "2012-11-03T17:06:13Z")
> [@Ca3799](#): > > This probably has already been discussed here and if so, please direct me there, but is there anything to prevent electoral votes from being arbitrarily switched from Obama to Romney? I don’t think there is. But it’s also difficult to think of reasons why Democratic electors would decide to vote for Romney instead. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1485 "2012-11-03T17:13:17Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > I don’t think there is. But it’s also difficult to think of reasons why Democratic electors would decide to vote for Romney instead. They are called [Faithless Electors](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_elector). In several states, a Faithless Elector can be punished. The history of Faithless Electors as outlined in the Wiki link is pretty interesting… ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1486 "2012-11-03T17:15:36Z")
> [@DMark](#): > > Well, other than rioting in streets and armed combat with the National Guard, probably no reason they couldn’t just up and switch electoral votes after the fact. > [@Marley23](#): > > I don’t think there is. But it’s also difficult to think of reasons why Democratic electors would decide to vote for Romney instead. See the link in post 1480. Some states will negate the vote, some replace the violating elector, fine the elector or charge the violating elector with a fourth degree felony. There are definitely states that make sure this sort of thing doesn’t happen, or that it’s punished when it does. ETA: I would imagine some of these state laws would be challenged in court should they ever be enforced. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1487 "2012-11-03T17:20:42Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > They are called [Faithless Electors](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_elector). In several states, a Faithless Elector can be punished. The history of Faithless Electors as outlined in the Wiki link is pretty interesting… > [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > See the link in post 1480. Some states will negate the vote, some replace the violating elector, fine the elector or charge the violating elector with a fourth degree felony. There are definitely states that make sure this sort of thing doesn’t happen, or that it’s punished when it does. > > ETA: I would imagine some of these state laws would be challenged in court should they ever be enforced. I’d heard of them. Interestingly it sounds like the last few faithless electors have just screwed up; the last person who deliberately cast a faithless vote may have been the 1976 Reagan elector. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1488 "2012-11-03T17:44:34Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > I’d heard of them. Interestingly it sounds like the last few faithless electors have just screwed up; the last person who deliberately cast a faithless vote may have been the 1976 Reagan elector. I’ve heard of faithless electors voting for someone else in the same party, such as the 1976 Reagan elector you just mentioned. (And always on the losing side too, by the way.) I’ve never heard of a faithless elector voting for the other party. And I doubt it would ever happen. Why would it? As someone said, the electors are specifically chosen to by highly partisan. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1489 "2012-11-03T18:32:55Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > I don’t know. I actually think if Florida stays at 55% or better for Romney, it’s his. But should it trend just a smidge toward Obama today, then a best-case scenario for Obama would probably have to include the elusive Sunshine State. By definition, a “Best case scenario” is one where your side gets all the smidges. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1490 "2012-11-03T20:52:35Z")
> [@DMark](#): > > I admire your conviction and understand exactly where you are coming from. I too tried to envision Gore and Kerry getting elected - and was sure the polls were all wrong. > > Just try to take this all into perspective - it is not looking good for Mr. Romney. Sure, you can grasp as many straws as you wish, but be honest. It may seem that getting an additional 1% here and 2% there is not insurmountable, but added all together, in all of those swing states, well - it does get to be very tricky and hard to do. > > I do not want to rub anything in your face - all I am doing is warning you not to pin too many hopes on wisps of dreams. > Been there, done that - ain’t fun. Really, it’s like this. If you think the electorate is going to look like 2008, then you’re going to think Obama will win. If you think it will it look like 2000, 2004 or even 2010, then you think Romney will win. I have to say, I like Romney’s chances, given early voter numbers (and _especially_ given some rather bullish internals for him in virtually every poll taken despite a poll’s top line). > [@MOIDALIZE](#): > > They must feel Florida is in play, because Bill Clinton just finished up some campaigning down there. Or the Obama administration probably figures their firewall won’t hold and are now campaigning in a (well, more than one, actually) state which was once said that they didn’t need and could gladly go Republican without it harming Obama’s reelection chances, since he was “so far ahead in the EC”. It doesn’t really make sense to waste money in a state you don’t need. But that’s just me. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1491 "2012-11-03T21:03:53Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > …(Also, my [best-case scenario for Obama](http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bfGj). I don’t think he’ll get more than 303. I think the best he can hope for is to pick off CO and OH.) > [@Knorf](#): > > …I think it will be 303-235 for Obama, with a [map identical](http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bfKl) to **Happy Lendervedder** ’s… Heh. Truman in 1948 and Kennedy in 1960 both won with 303 Electoral College votes. > [@Marley23](#): > > I’d heard of them. Interestingly it sounds like the last few faithless electors have just screwed up; the last person who deliberately cast a faithless vote may have been the 1976 Reagan elector. No, Gore was afflicted with one in 2000: [Faithless elector watch.](http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/chatterbox/2004/12/faithless_elector_watch.html) ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1492 "2012-11-03T21:04:43Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Really, it’s like this. If you think the electorate is going to look like 2008, then you’re going to think Obama will win. If you think it will it look like 2000, 2004 or even 2010, then you think Romney will win. It’s November of 2012. Nobody is predicting an outcome based on past elections at this point. The predictions are being made based on asking people who they’re going to vote for this week. It’s Saturday. If the majority of people are saying they’re going to vote for Obama on Tuesday, things are not looking good for Romney. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1493 "2012-11-03T21:12:09Z")
> [@Ca3799](#): > > This probably has already been discussed here and if so, please direct me there, but is there anything to prevent electoral votes from being arbitrarily switched from Obama to Romney? As others have said, they don’t choose electors at random. They choose people they’re sure of - people like OMG for example. They’re confident he won’t suddenly decide to switch parties and vote for a Democrat at the last minute. That’s why when you see the occasional faithless elector, it’s generally somebody on the side that lost casting a vote for the more extreme fringe of their party. If Romney loses, you might see a Romney elector vote for Paul or Santorum as a symbolic protest but you won’t see one vote for Obama. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1494 "2012-11-03T21:20:22Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Really, it’s like this. If you think the electorate is going to look like 2008, then you’re going to think Obama will win. If you think it will it look like 2000, 2004 or even 2010, then you think Romney will win. I have to say, I like Romney’s chances, given early voter numbers (and _especially_ given some rather bullish internals for him in virtually every poll taken despite a poll’s top line). It’s not going to look exactly like any of those years, obviously. I think it will be in between 2010 and 2008. But demographic changes, like a large increase in the amount of registered Latino voters, as well as an excellent GOTV operation, make me optimistic that it will be close enough to 2008 for Obama to win. Considering the large margin he had in 2008, I don’t think the turnout will be as vastly different as it would need to be for Romney to win. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1495 "2012-11-03T21:59:44Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > It’s November of 2012. Nobody is predicting an outcome based on past elections at this point. The predictions are being made based on asking people who they’re going to vote for this week. …Which is why many pollsters ([like this one](http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/1031111112TrackerResults.pdf)) are somehow finding splits which just so happen to be super close to the 2008 election, even though the 2008 election itself was an outlier. It’s magic! 😉 Which actually brings me to a question. If the electorate is shaping up to be close to 2008 as the polls are predicting, then why is Obama doing worse in early voting as when compared to 2008 when Obama made it an issue to emphasize early voting? > [@](#): > > It’s Saturday. If the majority of people are saying they’re going to vote for Obama on Tuesday, things are not looking good for Romney. Except the majority of people really aren’t picking Obama, as he’s apt to lose the popular vote at this point (dare I say he will?). In fact, if you’ve been paying attention, the narrative has changed from “Obama in a landslide!” to, “Well, Obama may lose the popular vote but he’s going to win the EC, anyway!”. > [@iiandyiiii](#): > > It’s not going to look exactly like any of those years, obviously. I think it will be in between 2010 and 2008. But demographic changes, like a large increase in the amount of registered Latino voters, as well as an excellent GOTV operation, make me optimistic that it will be close enough to 2008 for Obama to win. Considering the large margin he had in 2008, I don’t think the turnout will be as vastly different as it would need to be for Romney to win. One, turnout this year is between 2004 and 2010, not 2008 and 2004-- the early voting numbers bear this out. Two, Obama is going to retain sub-85% of his support from 2008, meaning at least 15% of voters who supported him that year won’t this year, whereas Romney is going to retain over 95% of McCain’s supporters from 2008. If you reduced Obama’s total vote in 2008 to 85% and McCain’s to 95% of their actual total, Obama would win by about 2.5M. Now assume those same numbers this year. If you were to just take half of Obama “defectors” and gave their votes to Romney and half of McCain “defectors” and gave their votes to Obama, a very conservative estimate, Romney would win by about 1.25M votes. Therefore, Obama’s only chance would be to rely on new voters and hope that those new voters not only outnumber new Republican voters, but also those Republican voters who decided to “stay home” in 2008. And I’m pretty confident in saying that any strategy which relies on new voters to propel you to victory is doomed. Obama’s large margin in 2008 is irrelevant. He _might_ do better among Hispanics than in 2008, but that will be the only group. In all others, he’s shedding a small but substantial percentage of his 2008 tally, and some groups more than others. ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1496 "2012-11-03T22:14:40Z")
I don’t suppose the is particularly relevant, it’s just a number, but I’ve been monitoring the [RCP Obama Job Approval](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html) poll, waiting until I could say he’s at 50%. He hit it today. More bad news for Romney. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1497 "2012-11-03T22:20:53Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Which actually brings me to a question. If the electorate is shaping up to be close to 2008 as the polls are predicting, then why is Obama doing worse in early voting as when compared to 2008 when Obama made it an issue to emphasize early voting? Who’s saying the votes (your referring to “the electorate” is baffling) is shaping up to be really close to 2008? Only you seem to believe anyone is saying this. Nobody seriously thinks Obama will win Indiana again, North Carolina appears lost, Florida is a tossup and those states he will win _he won’t win by as much._ How is that the same? You seem to have some really interesting analysis that defies what all the serious analysts say. Fascinating, that. We’ll see who’s right come Tuesday; I’ll be curious to see if you stick around the SDMB if you’re wrong. If Nate Silver’s wrong, he’ll admit it and change his model. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1498 "2012-11-03T22:23:44Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Except the majority of people really aren’t picking Obama, as he’s apt to lose the popular vote at this point (dare I say he will?). In fact, if you’ve been paying attention, the narrative has changed from “Obama in a landslide!” to, “Well, Obama may lose the popular vote but he’s going to win the EC, anyway!”. Don’t expect me to explain what you’re hearing. Those voices are in your head. Keep in mind, most news sources don’t have a narrative. They just report what’s happening. Of course, there are also “news” sources (like Fox) that “explain” what’s happening. You have to be careful watching Fox or other news sources like that, because you can end up getting confused when the real world is different than what you were told. ---
**Author:** ![MsWhatsit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/eb8c5e/32.png) [@MsWhatsit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MsWhatsit)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1499 "2012-11-03T22:25:05Z")
> [@Fiddle\_Peghead](#): > > I don’t suppose the is particularly relevant, it’s just a number, but I’ve been monitoring the [RCP Obama Job Approval](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html) poll, waiting until I could say he’s at 50%. He hit it today. More bad news for Romney. Not surprised. He’s been handling the hurricane situation competently and professionally, and people will respond to that. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1500 "2012-11-03T22:28:55Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > We’ll see who’s right come Tuesday; I’ll be curious to see if you stick around the SDMB if you’re wrong. I predict he might stay away for a day or two. But then he’ll be back and he’ll be telling us that he was right all along and had predicted everything that happened - and he’ll believe it. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1501 "2012-11-03T22:33:38Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > One, turnout this year is between 2004 and 2010, not 2008 and 2004-- the early voting numbers bear this out. Two, Obama is going to retain sub-85% of his support from 2008, meaning at least 15% of voters who supported him that year won’t this year, whereas Romney is going to retain over 95% of McCain’s supporters from 2008. If you reduced Obama’s total vote in 2008 to 85% and McCain’s to 95% of their actual total, Obama would win by about 2.5M. Now assume those same numbers this year. If you were to just take half of Obama “defectors” and gave their votes to Romney and half of McCain “defectors” and gave their votes to Obama, a very conservative estimate, Romney would win by about 1.25M votes. Therefore, Obama’s only chance would be to rely on new voters and hope that those new voters not only outnumber new Republican voters, but also those Republican voters who decided to “stay home” in 2008. And I’m pretty confident in saying that any strategy which relies on new voters to propel you to victory is doomed. These are a lot of assumptions- and if each of them are off by just a tiny fraction or so, then you’re way off in total. Historically the method you’re describing of predicting the vote has failed- it failed in 04 (by my side), and failed in 08 (by your side). The polls successfully predicted the vast majority of the states, and were quite close on the popular vote as well in both election. I’m not taking your prediction particularly seriously because it’s the same type of “logic” that my side used in 2004 to say that Kerry was really going to win- and we were wrong. I trust the polls because the polls have a good track record. Your method has a bad track record. We’ll find out in just 3 days. I think you’re going to be very disappointed. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=74) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=76)