# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 77
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1522 "2012-11-04T01:46:54Z")
I actually prefer Sam Wang. He has Obama as a well over 95% favorite. There’s also the relatively simple RCP No-Tossup map: [RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html) ---
**Author:** ![Nzinga\_Seated](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/b5ac83/32.png) [@Nzinga\_Seated](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nzinga_Seated)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1523 "2012-11-04T01:53:12Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > …Oh, and fwiw, if Obama wins then I’ll admit I was wrong. Simple. Oh no, baby boy. One doesn’t simply ‘admit I was wrong’ after clocking in with this many confident-ass posts. You will have a nice steaming bowl of crow stew, and you will eat it without salt nor bread. And if \*\*Romney \*\*wins…oh boy. I will push the imaginary button on my imaginary intercom and I will tell Ms. Hoffenfeffer to hold my calls for the day. It will be a verrry interesting day on the dope, indeed. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1524 "2012-11-04T02:00:27Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > My side looked at the same thing- it was deceiving- because in 2004 the Democrats had a real primary, so voters actually registered to vote in the primary, vs no contest in the Republican primary. Now its reversed. It’s already been said, but _of course_ Republican voter registration increases by more when they have a contested primary as compared to an uncontested primary for the Democrats. My side tried to make the _exact same point_ in 2004, and we were wrong. That doesn’t have anything to do with anything, especially since you’re ignoring the fact that Republican registration increased while Democratic registration decreased. The “primaries” excuse doesn’t work for the latter. > [@](#): > > He’s going to win a huge majority of non-white voters. I think it’s likely to be over 83%, but we’ll see. In OH, the polls show he’s barely losing the white vote. So he’s going to increase his share of the non-White vote from 2008? That’s a pretty hard stretch to make. As I said elsewhere, Obama _may_ increase his share among Hispanics, but that will be the only minority group in which he would do so. And there simply aren’t enough Hispanics to make up for even a 1% loss of support among other minority groups. And that’s even assuming that the White vote isn’t any higher than what it was in 2008. If it is, that threshold becomes even higher. > [@](#): > > I don’t know where you’re getting this- the early voter #s I’ve seen have been very good for Obama, if not quite as good as 2008. [Swing states 2012](http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-election/swing-state-early-voting-tally-20121030) vs. [2008](http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html). I even posted [this](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0) once before, it updates slowly but good luck arguing that Obama is performing anywhere close to where he was in 2008 (that’s for Ohio, ftr). He isn’t. > [@](#): > > They made the same arguments about turnout and registration that you have, and they were wrong. I don’t know about the early voting argument. So your argument is “they’re wrong”, even though early voting trends conform to state registration data (showing a Republican uptick amid Democratic downturn) and not any given state polls,which show the exact opposite? Yeah, okay. > [@](#): > > It’s not hard to find underlying assumptions that “defy historical trends” in polls every election- because the electorate changes pretty significantly in 4 years. My side made this exact same argument in 2004, and they were wrong. Not quite. I gave you a graph showing historical turnout all both presidential and primary elections from 1980 to 2010, showing that the numbers are pretty stable. Except for one year, 2008, which was the outlier. > [@](#): > > It’s just weird to me that you express so little doubt that pretty much ALL the polls are really wrong. It would be a massive, huge story if you’re right and the polls are this far off. Yes, I’ll be shocked- because the polls have historically been so much better than the partisans who try and make the claims you’re trying to make. I don’t see much difference in your arguments from my side’s in 2004- it really just seems like the same sort of wishful thinking. Not _all_; state polls. There was an article on this showing the discrepancy between state and national polls to be because state polls were assuming a much higher Democratic turnout relative to 2008 than were national polls. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1525 "2012-11-04T02:03:50Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > I even posted [this](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0) once before, it updates slowly but good luck arguing that Obama is performing anywhere close to where he was in 2008 (that’s for Ohio, ftr). He isn’t. The “author” of that doc says in the sidebar that because OH doesn’t track registration, only the last primary the voter voted in, it shouldn’t be taken as particularly meaningful. What say you to the NV and FL numbers I showed? ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1526 "2012-11-04T02:05:05Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Oh, and fwiw, if Obama wins then I’ll admit I was wrong. Simple. Will you also throw Romney under the bus, or will you entertain the idea that conservatism is not preferred by most people? ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1527 "2012-11-04T02:14:23Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Oh, and fwiw, if Obama wins then I’ll admit I was wrong. Simple. Wow, that’s impressive. What’s the alternative? ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1528 "2012-11-04T02:14:25Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > The “author” of that doc says in the sidebar that because OH doesn’t track registration, only the last primary the voter voted in, it shouldn’t be taken as particularly meaningful. So what? It’s looking at **counties** , which provide a good idea as to how the race is going there. Unless you’re going to argue that there’s a disconnect between counties and the county’s population, where a county that voted for McCain could see an increase in request ballots because of more Democrats requesting an absentee ballot in that county, or that a county which voted for Obama is seeing a decrease in requests because of Republicans choosing not to request an absentee ballot this time around-- which is possible but not likely-- you’re going to be hard to argue the underlying trend (good for Romney and bad for Obama). > [@](#): > > What say you to the NV and FL numbers I showed? What about them? Are you trying to tout a relative decrease in early votes for Democrats across the board to argue that Obama is winning? That wouldn’t make sense as most of those early voter numbers are closer to 2004 than they are to 2008. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1529 "2012-11-04T02:22:05Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > …Rather than examining white Latino righthanded voters with lisps in the middle income tax bracket who are registered independents… How DARE you overlook Republican-leaning left-handed albino Eskimo lesbians! Harrumph! The _Plain Dealer_, Ohio’s biggest newspaper, blasts Romney’s latest auto-jobs speech and ad: [Flailing in Ohio, Romney rolls out Jeep ploy: editorial - cleveland.com](http://www.cleveland.com/opinion/index.ssf/2012/10/flailing_in_ohio_romney_rolls.html) ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1530 "2012-11-04T03:03:16Z")
Pee-Wee has endorsed Obama. You HAVE to read it, in your head, in his voice for it to work: > **[I Wish I Could Buy Everyone in the World a Frozen Custard Right Now](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/sandy-obama-election_b_2068783)** > > The last time I went to the Jersey Shore, Mike "the Situation" Sorrentino took me for frozen custard. I would buy everyone in the world right now a frozen custard, just so they would realize how special the Jersey Shore is. And then they would donate... Game over, man. Game over! ---
**Author:** ![digs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/digs/32/14889_2.png) [@digs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/digs)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1531 "2012-11-04T03:26:43Z")
[PeeWeeVoice] I know you are but what am I? [/PWV] BTW, someone asked where Paul Ryan’s been. Living near Janesville, WI, we know, and it’s one more piece of the puzzle: he’s been campaigning hard for his Congressional seat. As his latest ad finished, I said “Wow, he really is NOT planning on being Vice-President, is he?” ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1532 "2012-11-04T03:28:40Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > What about them? Are you trying to tout a relative decrease in early votes for Democrats across the board to argue that Obama is winning? That wouldn’t make sense as most of those early voter numbers are closer to 2004 than they are to 2008. I’m just showing numbers that demonstrate that Obama is doing slightly worse in early voting compared to 08, but still by ahead by a margin that suggests he is probably ahead overall, to refute your point that his early voting numbers are “poop”. They’re obviously not- they’re just not quite as awesome as they were in 08. ---
**Author:** ![C3](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/c3/32/3108_2.png) [@C3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/C3)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1533 "2012-11-04T03:31:26Z")
> [@digs](#): > > [PeeWeeVoice] I know you are but what am I? [/PWV] > > BTW, someone asked where Paul Ryan’s been. Living near Janesville, WI, we know, and it’s one more piece of the puzzle: he’s been campaigning hard for his Congressional seat. As his latest ad finished, I said “Wow, he really is NOT planning on being Vice-President, is he?” Wow, I totally read that sentence as Paul Reubens instead of Paul Ryan and had the very weird experience of imaging Pee Wee’s campaign ad. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 4:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1534 "2012-11-04T04:34:04Z")
> [@Nzinga\_Seated](#): > > So, is this [interactive](http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html)useful and accurate? Now THAT is cool. Thanks for sharing! ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 1:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1535 "2012-11-04T13:49:52Z")
Do I think Romney can win? Probably not. But I do think Obama can lose. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1536 "2012-11-04T14:51:17Z")
Looks as though [the independent vote is in doubt](http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/11/04/are_indies_coming_back_to_obama.html) for Romney… > [@](#): > > Some pollsters have started to notice that independent voters, who until recently were leaning toward Mitt Romney, may be trickling back toward President Obama with just days until the election. > > A Zogby poll finds Obama has picked up five points among independents, perhaps because of how he has handled the federal response to Hurricane Sandy. Meanwhile the latest national Public Policy Polling tracking poll shows Obama turning a longtime disadvantage with independents into a 49% to 44% advantage. Furthermore, a new national ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll shows Obama and Romney deadlocked with independents, at 46% each, matching Obama’s best showing among that group in that survey and coming after Romney had reached a high of 58% just a week and a half earlier. > > Finally, the Politico/GWU tracking poll finds the two men essentially tied with independents just a week after Romney held a double-digit lead with them. It’s looking as though the counter-indicators to an Obama win (“National polls show Romney ahead”, “Huge independents gap”) are collapsing and coming to meet the Obama-positive state polling results as we move in on Tuesday. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1537 "2012-11-04T15:32:41Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > Looks as though [the independent vote is in doubt](http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/11/04/are_indies_coming_back_to_obama.html) for Romney… Zogby’s about as credible as a random number generator. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1538 "2012-11-04T15:37:34Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I’m just showing numbers that demonstrate that Obama is doing slightly worse in early voting compared to 08, but still by ahead by a margin that suggests he is probably ahead overall, to refute your point that his early voting numbers are “poop”. They’re obviously not- they’re just not quite as awesome as they were in 08. Obama’s early voting numbers are worse than 2008. They are closer to 2004 and, in some cases, the early voting numbers for Democrats are **worse** than 2004. No amount of obfuscation will change that; it’s a cold-hard fact evidenced by numbers. Now Democrats almost always do better in early votes where Republicans almost always do better on election day. The fact that you’re relishing in a Democratic advantage in early votes is a bit of a head scratcher, as you should be worried because the Democratic advantage in early votes is not nearly as high as it needs to be to overcome Republican turnout on election day and nowhere near what it was in 2008. > [@Jophiel](#): > > Looks as though the independent vote is in doubt for Romney… Not really. Zogby is trash and PPP is nothing more than a push polling organization. The Politico poll is more interesting, though Romney’s “drop” among Independents is explained in the analysis on the **front page** : > [@](#): > > Independents are now split evenly, with Obama up 44 to 43 percent. A week ago, Romney had a 10-point advantage among this key demographic. The ranks of independents shrunk partly because more right-leaning voters now supporting Romney identified with the Republican Party. Though the actual data shows the opposite-- Republicans without leaners went from 41 to 40-- though Independents with leaners did go from 33 - 30. Not sure where the rest went of the Republicans went, but whatever. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1539 "2012-11-04T15:43:59Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Obama’s early voting numbers are worse than 2008. And I have acknowledged that. But Obama won by a really, really big margin in 08. The early voting numbers are worse than in 08, but not a lot worse- you’re just wrong on that. They’re pretty strong in Nevada, and still show enough of an advantage in FL that I think he might be the favorite. No amount of obfuscation will change that; it’s a cold-hard fact evidenced by numbers. ---
**Author:** ![Frostillicus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Frostillicus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frostillicus)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1540 "2012-11-04T15:46:54Z")
> [@Nzinga\_Seated](#): > > So, is this [interactive](http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html)useful and accurate? Wow, Obama can lose Florida, Ohio, NC, and Virginia and still win. Clearly, this is good new for the McCain campaign. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1541 "2012-11-04T16:20:53Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > And I have acknowledged that. But Obama won by a really, really big margin in 08. The early voting numbers are worse than in 08, but not a lot worse- you’re just wrong on that. They’re pretty strong in Nevada, and still show enough of an advantage in FL that I think he might be the favorite. No amount of obfuscation will change that; it’s a cold-hard fact evidenced by numbers. Nevada 2012: Democratic 46.0%, Republican 38.0% Nevada 2008: Democratic 52.0%, Republican 30.6% In four years, that’s D-6%, R+7.4%. Ignoring Independents, that’s over a **THIRTEEN** point swing. Florida 2012: Democratic 42.5%, Republican 40.3% Florida 2008: Democratic 45.6%, Republican 37.3% In four years, that’s D-3.1% and R+3%. Ignoring Independents, that’s a over a **SIX** point swing. In no world can you somehow say that either of those numbers are “not much worse” than 2008. Obama will still win Nevada, thanks largely to a growing Hispanic population, but not Florida. Going into election day, Obama will have a quarter of the lead he had in 2008 going into election day. Or to put it more succinctly. > [@](#): > > Adrian Gray ‏@adrian\_gray > > FLORIDA: Dems won early vote in 2008 by 8%. Today, they lead by 2%. That 6% gain represents 270k votes in a state Obama won by 236k. You don’t have to believe it, and I know you won’t, but Obama’s early voting numbers really are poop-- especially when you consider the amount of time he invested in emphasizing the importance of early voting. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=76) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=78)