# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 79
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1562 "2012-11-04T20:45:57Z")
Via Reddit, there is a note from \*Electoral Vote \*showing that new media conservatives are beginning to see what is coming. > **[ElectoralVote](https://electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Nov04.html)** > > Track the election with a red/blue map of the US updated daily using the latest state polls. > [@](#): > > One of the more popular conservative blogs is [redstate.com](http://redstate.com). It is getting roughly the same traffic as this site (about a quarter of a million hits a day). The founder and chief cook and bottle washer, Erick Erickson, is way to the right of Rick Perry. During the run-up to the primaries he was wildly against Romney. On Nov. 8, 2011, he wrote an editorial that is definitely worth reading if you are interested in knowing what conservatives were thinking a year ago. In part, he wrote: > > > [@](#): > > > > "Mitt Romney, on the other hand, is a man devoid of any principles other than getting himself elected. As much as the American public does not like Barack Obama, they loath a man so fueled with ambition that he will say or do anything to get himself elected. Mitt Romney is that man. > [@](#): > > But yesterday something new appeared: “When I wake up on Wednesday morning, I’m still going to have my wife. I’m still going to have my kids. I’m still going to have my family. And I’m still going to have my God. So will you.” Later in the piece he said: “I’m not going to think the end of the world is upon us if my side loses.” From someone who hates Obama with a passion and has railed against him all year (to great cheering from the comments section), this doesn’t seem like an announcement of imminent victory. > > In a Washington Post interview, Republican strategist Karl Rove had his Mene mene tekel upharsin moment when he blamed Romney’s loss on the storm, even before the results are known, when he said: “If you hadn’t had the storm, there would have been more of a chance for the [Mitt] Romney campaign to talk about the deficit, the debt, the economy.” He seems to have forgotten that Romney has been saying all those things for 2 years. Surely 3 more days didn’t matter. What he meant was the storm gave Obama a Commander-in-Chief test and he passed. The best up-voted comment: > **[Reddit - The heart of the internet](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/12m4ie/conservatives_are_seeing_the_beginning_of_the_end/)** > [@](#): > > Voting for Romney because you don’t think Obama has fixed the economy fast enough is like firing the firefighter and putting the arsonist back in charge. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1563 "2012-11-04T20:54:31Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > **OMG** is convinced that because OH leaned R in the past, that it must ALWAYS lean R. The polls show it leans D right now- it’s not like any given state leans the same way every single election. We’ll see Tuesday night (or later!). And we have to go all the way back to 2004 to find an election when Ohio was more blue-leaning than the popular vote. I mean, 2004! Is anyone from that period still alive?! ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1564 "2012-11-04T20:56:43Z")
This “up-vote” of which you speak? My people do not know of this thing… ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1565 "2012-11-04T21:20:21Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > This “up-vote” of which you speak? My people do not know of this thing… Well, yeah it is like another world out there! 🙂 Seriously though I only go to Reddit for the buzz out there and special subjects, I’m not a member, but I know a few things: > **[GitHub - reddit-archive/reddit: historical code from reddit.com](https://github.com/reddit-archive/reddit)** > > historical code from reddit.com > [@](#): > > voting > > On reddit your vote means, “I found this interesting,” not “This should go on the front page.” > > Once registered, you can vote all links on reddit up or down based on whether you liked or disliked them. If more people like a link than dislike it, it will rise up the hot page and be seen by more users. Upon voting, the highlighted score will have changed +1 or -1 depending on your vote up or down, respectively. Regardless of individual karmas, all votes affect submission scores equally. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1566 "2012-11-04T22:02:01Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > **adaher** and **OMG** , I have a proposal for you both: > > If Romney wins, I will only post positive things about Romney on this message board until inauguration day. > > If Obama wins, you will only post positive things about Obama on this message board until inauguration day. > > Deal? In the past, both have refused to commit to anything tangible, despite multiple offers. Their arguments are presumably mostly for show. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1567 "2012-11-04T22:44:34Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Fine, then let’s talk about Ohio. Your position is that Republicans do better in Ohio than they do nationally, do I have that right? I want to make sure I have that right before we go to the actual facts (again). As I said in the post you quoted, Ohio tends to lean more Republican than the electorate as a whole, yes. In fact, I’ve said this one more than one occasion. > [@iiandyiiii](#): > > **OMG** is convinced that because OH leaned R in the past, that it must ALWAYS lean R. Obviously, I type for my own amusement. > [@Me](#): > > Ohio is the penultimate swing state, tending to be more Republican than Democrat than the nation as a whole. Odd how you extrapolate from “tends [to]” to “always”. But around here I could expect no less. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1568 "2012-11-04T22:53:43Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > As I said in the post you quoted, Ohio tends to lean more Republican than the electorate as a whole, yes. In fact, I’ve said this one more than one occasion. It did in 08, but it was more Democratic in 04. And now, the economic numbers in OH are substantially better than nationally, so I think it’s very plausible that Obama could overperform his national numbers in Ohio. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1569 "2012-11-04T22:57:20Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Odd how you extrapolate from “tends [to]” to “always”. But around here I could expect no less. I apologize; I thought you were implying that it was somehow obvious and self-evident that OH would be more Republican than the national numbers. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1570 "2012-11-04T22:59:23Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > **adaher** and **OMG** , I have a proposal for you both: > > If Romney wins, I will only post positive things about Romney on this message board until inauguration day. > > If Obama wins, you will only post positive things about Obama on this message board until inauguration day. > > Deal? Do I have a choice? Never been much for useless venting. I’d add to that deal. If Republicans do manage to take the Senate, even as Obama is reelected, let’s usher in a bipartisan era here until they actually screw it up. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 11:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1571 "2012-11-04T23:03:57Z")
**OMG** , I’m still curious what the ultimate swing state is? ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1572 "2012-11-04T23:06:54Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > If Republicans do manage to take the Senate, even as Obama is reelected, let’s usher in a bipartisan era here until they actually screw it up. If Republicans don’t put revenue increases back on the table, I won’t consider it bipartisan. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1573 "2012-11-04T23:07:14Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I apologize; I thought you were implying that it was somehow obvious and self-evident that OH would be more Republican than the national numbers. Exactly. The claim is either trivial (Ohio might lean right but it sometimes leans left) or false (we can safely predict Ohio will lean right). Charitable interpretation usually assumes one isn’t making the trivial claim, and proceeds to rebut the substantive one in the hope there might be some intelligent opposition to that point. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1574 "2012-11-04T23:25:25Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > If Republicans don’t put revenue increases back on the table, I won’t consider it bipartisan. They did offer revenue increases, through closing loopholes. Democrats want rate increases. In theory, the Republican offer should be fine, since the President has said he supports lowering rates and broadening the base. Also, if the GOP controlled all of Congress, they’d be in a position of strength regarding budget matters. Congress has more budget power than the President, and worst case, Congress can just keep on passing continuing resolutions keeping spending at current levels, which would cause spending to fall as a % of GDP over time. Obama can veto spending cuts but it would be politically impossible for him to veto spending bills that are the same levels as the previous year. Clinton beat the Republicans soundly on the politics, but he never got another tax increase. If the GOP controls Congress, the compromise is over what to cut and how much. Of course, Obama can get the Bush tax cuts expiration easily enough, since all he has to do is nothing and rates return to Clinton-era levels. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1575 "2012-11-04T23:30:31Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > They did offer revenue increases, through closing loopholes. They promised that eliminating loopholes and deductions would be revenue neutral with rate reductions. Has that changed? ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1576 "2012-11-04T23:38:33Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Do I have a choice? Never been much for useless venting. I’d add to that deal. If Republicans do manage to take the Senate, even as Obama is reelected, let’s usher in a bipartisan era here until they actually screw it up. I’m all for a bipartisan era here, but have no confidence whatsoever that our goodwill could ever be reflected in congress. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1577 "2012-11-05T01:47:16Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > To put it succinctly, Obama’s early voting numbers look like poop I know you already said that Nate Silver doesn’t matter and I know you already have been called on this, but in the interest of accuracy (with bolding for emphasis, mine): > [@](#): > > Nevada is problematic for Mr. Romney because perhaps 65 or 70 percent of its vote has already been cast — and because Democrats have roughly a 50,000-ballot lead there based on the votes that have been collected so far. The better news for Mr. Romney is that Democratic margins in the early vote count are down from 2008. **But Mr. Obama carried Nevada by more than 12 percentage points that year, so he could lose a significant amount from his margin and still win.** > > Democrats also have about a 63,000-ballot lead in Iowa based on the early vote. That is down from an 87,000-ballot lead for Democrats in 2008. Still, **as in Nevada, this is a state where Mr. Obama can afford to lose something from his 2008 margin, when he won Iowa by about 10 percentage points.** > > Ohio is another early-voting state. The most recent figures in Democratic-leaning Cuyahoga County, home to Cleveland, suggest that about 236,000 votes have already been cast there, representing 35 percent of 2008 turnout. > > In Franklin County, where Columbus is the largest city and which is the Democrats’ next best county in the state, early votes represent 36 percent of 2008 turnout. > > By comparison, the early vote represents 21 percent of 2008 turnout in the other 86 counties in Ohio, combined. > > Unlike in Iowa and Nevada, where the early-voting numbers favor Democrats but are down from 2008, the statistics in Ohio could wind up being quite similar to those from 2008 once the last two days of early balloting are concluded on Sunday and Monday. > > In 2008, 39 percent of the vote was cast early in Cuyahoga County and 44 percent in Franklin County, compared with 22 percent elsewhere in the state. > > The early-voting figures in these states tell a story that seems to be consistent with the polling. **In contrast to Iowa and Nevada, where Mr. Obama will almost certainly underperform his 2008 margins, the polls anticipate less of a decline for Mr. Obama in Ohio, which he won by five percentage points four years ago.** > > ["][538.com](http://538.com)]([Nov. 3: Romney's Reason to Play for Pennsylvania - The New York Times](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/nov-3-romneys-reason-to-play-for-pennsylvania/#h)[) That’s some [awfully expensive poop](http://www.nydailynews.com/life-style/eats/tea-made-panda-feces-expected-expensive-brew-world-article-1.978191)! ---
**Author:** ![Find\_Friends](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/c37758/32.png) [@Find\_Friends](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Find_Friends)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1578 "2012-11-05T02:21:36Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Oh, and fwiw, if Obama wins then I’ll admit I was wrong. Simple. **Wow…** What a tremendous admission that would be. But it’s not quite like admitting that your scientific theory was off, and that your despised opponents were right. It’s not quite like admitting that you stole a cookie from a toddler and then had lied about it. It’s more like admitting that DST had given sway back to Standard Time. Oh, and BTW, should Romney manage to win, I’ll admit it and concede that may optimism for Obama was mistaken. Wow! ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 2:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1579 "2012-11-05T02:57:02Z")
My teenage son and I volunteered to GOTV canvass for Obama in the Cleveland 'burbs this afternoon. After 1.5 hours waiting, along with about two dozen other people, for our lists of houses-to-hit to arrive, we gave up. The worst screwup by the Obama field staff I’ve seen yet, and just two days before Election Day! Bummer. ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1580 "2012-11-05T03:07:14Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > If Republicans don’t put revenue increases back on the table, I won’t consider it bipartisan. Of course, they’ll never do that because Grover Norquist has them all by the balls. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1581 "2012-11-05T03:13:55Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > I know you already said that Nate Silver doesn’t matter and I know you already have been called on this, but in the interest of accuracy (with bolding for emphasis, mine):That’s some [awfully expensive poop](http://www.nydailynews.com/life-style/eats/tea-made-panda-feces-expected-expensive-brew-world-article-1.978191)! One thing I wanted to tell \*\*OMGABC \*\* was that one has to realize that overall, the very expensive (Romney is still spending a little bit more than Obama) poop from Romney has only giving him a tie in the popular vote, it is indeed very shameful when one takes into account all that money put in the effort. And Romney still got also mostly deficits in the battleground states. IMHO Money talks and bullshit can get elected with it, but not this time, it will be close, the signs shows that it is likely that it will not be enough for the Roll Royce ticket. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=78) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=80)