# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 80
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 3:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1582 "2012-11-05T03:35:55Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > In the past, both have refused to commit to anything tangible, despite multiple offers. Their arguments are presumably mostly for show. In fairness, some people just don’t like betting. I can really understand not wanting to bet with anonymous people on a message board. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 5:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1583 "2012-11-05T05:14:44Z")
Monday, November 5, 2012 in Columbus, Ohio, Team Romney and Team Obama will be conducting their own \*\* Battle of the Bands!!!\*\* Team Romney will be appearing with [The Marshall Tucker Band](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_Tucker) who? Team Obama will be appearing with **Bruce Springsteen** This alone is enough for me to say it’s time to stick the fork in good ol’ Mittens. Marshall Tucker?!?!? WTF? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 5:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1584 "2012-11-05T05:27:33Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > I’m all for a bipartisan era here, but have no confidence whatsoever that our goodwill could ever be reflected in congress. Certainly not if both sides can declare victory. In a scenario where Republicans capture the Senate, they can plausibly claim that Romney was the weak link. What I wonder is how to interpret an election where everything stays pretty much the same. If projections are right. pretty much NOTHING is going to change. Republicans are forecast to lose few seats or even gain a seat or two in the HOuse, they are forecast to gain only one seat or no seats in the Senate. Does this mean the public likes the way things are going now? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 5:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1585 "2012-11-05T05:29:11Z")
> [@jshore](#): > > Of course, they’ll never do that because Grover Norquist has them all by the balls. Losing has a way of focusing the mind. So does a new four year term for the President. It was all well and good to do what they did after the midterms, they were elected to stop the Democratic agenda and to create a contrast for the next election. But if Americans vote for divided government in 2012, then Republicans have to deal. And so do Democrats. No more spending cuts in the future for tax increases right the hell now. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 5:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1586 "2012-11-05T05:43:36Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Monday, November 5, 2012 in Columbus, Ohio, Team Romney and Team Obama will be conducting their own \*\* > > Battle of the Bands!!!\*\* > Team Romney will be appearing with [The Marshall Tucker Band](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_Tucker) who? > > Team Obama will be appearing with **Bruce Springsteen** > This alone is enough for me to say it’s time to stick the fork in good ol’ Mittens. > Marshall Tucker?!?!? WTF? I’m an Obama supporter, but what’s wrong with Marshall Tucker?? ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 5:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1587 "2012-11-05T05:57:09Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > I’m an Obama supporter, but what’s wrong with Marshall Tucker?? Musically, nothing. However they peaked in about 1977. That’s a while ago. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 5:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1588 "2012-11-05T05:58:39Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > I know you already said that Nate Silver doesn’t matter and I know you already have been called on this, but in the interest of accuracy (with bolding for emphasis, mine):That’s some [awfully expensive poop](http://www.nydailynews.com/life-style/eats/tea-made-panda-feces-expected-expensive-brew-world-article-1.978191)! _yawns_ (1) Just to quote myself: > [@](#): > > Obama will still win Nevada, thanks largely to a growing Hispanic population… Post #1540 (2) Nate Silver doesn’t know what the hell he’s talking about. The fact that you guys continue to quote him is rather astounding, to be quote honest. [Link, for the second or third time this thread](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0). It updates slowly, not everything is the most recent data and they haven’t yet updated the top line yet, but they’ll get around to it eventually. Anywho… In 2008, Cuyahoga cast 283,752 early votes. As of 11/04/2012, the number of early votes cast in the state was 288,216. In 2008, Democrats cast 151,296 votes versus 36,232 votes for Republicans. As of 11/04/2012, 144,618 votes have been cast for Democrats while 52,734 votes have been cast for Republicans. In 2008, Democrats led in overall votes by 41% in Cuyahoga county; today that lead is down to 32%. In 2008, Franklin county cast 269,801 early votes; this year that number as of 11/04/2012 is 233,433. In 2008, Democrats cast 48,811 early votes while Republicans cast 40,334 votes. This year Democrats have cast 34,664 votes to 36,526 for Republicans. In 2008, Democrats led in overall votes cast in Franklin by about 3%; this year they are down by a bit less than one percentage point (~0.8%). So while Cuyahoga has surpassed its 2008 totals, the Democratic lead from 2008 is down in both actual numbers and percentages. In the case of Franklin county, not only is the county not going to reach its 2008 early voter numbers without a massive push the last two days, but the Democratic advantage has been outright reversed. And that’s without mentioning the fact that there’s been about a 260K swing in favor of Republicans in early votes from 2008, due to decreased Democratic turnout and increased Republican turnout. As I said, utter poop, which is actually quite startling considering that Obama made it a mini-mission to get his supporters to early vote. And just to throw this out there, [here is the in house voting comparison for Cuyahoga county for 2008 and 2012](http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/2008_2012InHouseVotingDailyComparison.pdf). Notice the drop. But I’m sure the fact that Nate Silver said everything is unicorns, rainbows and roses will invalidate the data provided. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 6:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1589 "2012-11-05T06:00:44Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > I’m an Obama supporter, but what’s wrong with Marshall Tucker?? There isn’t anything inherently wrong with them. But, they are kinda done aren’t they? The best Romney can muster is a group coasting on work they did a few decades ago. Yeah, they still tour but from what I can tell it’s just a rehash of the past. ETA: ninja’d by **Euphonious Polemic** ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 6:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1590 "2012-11-05T06:08:35Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > One thing I wanted to tell \*\*OMGABC \*\* was that one has to realize that overall, the very expensive (Romney is still spending a little bit more than Obama) poop from Romney has only giving him a tie in the popular vote, it is indeed very shameful when one takes into account all that money put in the effort. And Romney still got also mostly deficits in the battleground states. > > IMHO Money talks and bullshit can get elected with it, but not this time, it will be close, the signs shows that it is likely that it will not be enough for the Roll Royce ticket. So Romney is spending more than Obama now? Big deal. I doubt you said anything when Obama was outspending Romney (or McCain, for that matter). Did you happen to forget that Obama was outspending the Romney campaign early in the election? Hell, Obama was running negative ads against Romney before Romney had even secured the Republican nomination. ---
**Author:** ![rejemy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/898d66/32.png) [@rejemy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rejemy)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 6:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1591 "2012-11-05T06:11:54Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Musically, nothing. However they peaked in about 1977. That’s a while ago. Most of Romney’s supporters also peaked about 1977, so it’s probably a great choice. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 6:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1592 "2012-11-05T06:12:10Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > There isn’t anything inherently wrong with them. But, they are kinda done aren’t they? The best Romney can muster is a group coasting on work they did a few decades ago. Yeah, they still tour but from what I can tell it’s just a rehash of the past. They’re really just a tribute band at this point, as the only original member is the singer, if I recall correctly. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 6:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1593 "2012-11-05T06:20:27Z")
I was going to express surprise that Ted Nugent wasn’t on the bill, but then he peaked about 1977 as well. ---
**Author:** ![bengangmo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@bengangmo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bengangmo)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 7:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1594 "2012-11-05T07:30:02Z")
Nate says Obama’s chances are now up to 86% (88% in the now cast) His average sees Obama getting 50.6% of the national vote… It looks like it’s going to be a comfortable day for the Dems on Tuesday… ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 7:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1595 "2012-11-05T07:55:55Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > In fairness, some people just don’t like betting. I can really understand not wanting to bet with anonymous people on a message board. Oh, I can understand a reluctance to have money change hands. But AFAICT, \*\*adaher \*\*and **OMG** refuse to negotiate wagers on message board behavior, signatures, etc. There’s also a curious refusal to set odds. Upthread, in post 1569, you can see adaher blowing smoke with a non-responsive comment. We have a real signal to noise problem. ETA: Woops, I should acknowledge that OMG summarized his views in the Skald thread though, which deserves a respectful nod. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 8:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1596 "2012-11-05T08:03:25Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > So Romney is spending more than Obama now? Big deal. I doubt you said anything when Obama was outspending Romney (or McCain, for that matter). Did you happen to forget that Obama was outspending the Romney campaign early in the election? Hell, Obama was running negative ads against Romney before Romney had even secured the Republican nomination. Hah. You are funny. Or to be more acurate, the whole republican party is, the point was only to be amused at millionares investing so much on a candidate that is very likely to lose. The big deal is indeed that not all people are fooled and if there was not all that money coming from people who instead of investing in America invest in the Caiman islands, Romney would not be as high in the polls as he is. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 8:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1597 "2012-11-05T08:24:39Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > I was going to express surprise that Ted Nugent wasn’t on the bill, but then he peaked about 1977 as well. You mean to say 1992, when Damn Yankees second album was released. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 8:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1598 "2012-11-05T08:26:29Z")
> [@bengangmo](#): > > Nate says Obama’s chances are now up to 86% (88% in the now cast) > > His average sees Obama getting 50.6% of the national vote… > > It looks like it’s going to be a comfortable day for the Dems on Tuesday… 86% is pretty close to being sure, and as a matter of fact Nate Silver challenged Joe Scarborough to bet him on the election. So Silver’s reputation is riding on this one. So if Romney wins, how long before Fivethirtyeight is no longer affiliated with the NY Times? ---
**Author:** ![bengangmo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@bengangmo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bengangmo)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 8:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1599 "2012-11-05T08:31:05Z")
Actaully, that would be an interesting side discussion - I wonder… a) how much is the 538 brand worth? b) Is it Nate’s property or NYT’s? ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 10:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1600 "2012-11-05T10:07:24Z")
I believe it’s Nate’s, based on comments I’ve seen, but don’t hold me to that. If anything, especially if Silver nails it again, I really think that the NYT needs him a lot more than he needs it. All being on the NYT has done, as far as I can tell, is stick a paywall up on content that used to be free. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 10:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1601 "2012-11-05T10:16:40Z")
Obama may have [an advantage](http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/11/04/are_indies_coming_back_to_obama.html) with independent voters now. That’s the trend with the most recent polls. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=79) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=81)