# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 81
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 10:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1602 "2012-11-05T10:21:57Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > My teenage son and I volunteered to GOTV canvass for Obama in the Cleveland 'burbs this afternoon. After 1.5 hours waiting, along with about two dozen other people, for our lists of houses-to-hit to arrive, we gave up. The worst screwup by the Obama field staff I’ve seen yet, and just two days before Election Day! Bummer. That is a bummer. In my experience, Team Obama did this sort of thing really well four years ago. Let’s hope your experience was an isolated incident. Any other Dopers care to chime in with anecdotes? Elendil’s Heir, I know you’re disappointed the canvassing didn’t work out, but could you and your son join a phone bank this evening? (Bring you cell phone.) Lots being organized in homes and offices. Not as much of an experience, and lower effectiveness rate than knocking on doors, but better than nothing. Just don’t let the handful of hostile reactions to the phone call get you down. Forget it and move on. ---
**Author:** ![williambaskerville](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f14d63/32.png) [@williambaskerville](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/williambaskerville)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 11:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1603 "2012-11-05T11:28:24Z")
Someone’s put their money where their mouth is :- [http://blog.paddypower.com/2012/11/04/paddy-power-pays-out-400000-on-obama-victory-in-u-s-presidential-election/](http://blog.paddypower.com/2012/11/04/paddy-power-pays-out-400000-on-obama-victory-in-u-s-presidential-election/) Paddy Power, the Irish bookmaker, is paying out to punters who bet on Obama, on the basis that his victory is certain. It will cost them 650,000 dollars if they’re wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 11:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1604 "2012-11-05T11:55:32Z")
Note today’s [xkcd](http://xkcd.com/1130/), particularly the mouseover text. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 12:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1605 "2012-11-05T12:34:41Z")
> [@bengangmo](#): > > Actaully, that would be an interesting side discussion - I wonder.. > a) how much is the 538 brand worth? > b) Is it Nate’s property or NYT’s? a) Depends on what you’re asking about. How much is it worth in dollars, or to NY Times’ prestige? b) Pretty sure it’s Nate’s. Even if the NY Times did technically own it, it’s not as if they’d fire Nate and put someone else in charge. 538 IS Nate Silver. If he gets it wrong, 538 will still exist, no reason for Silver to give up what he’s doing, it’s good stuff. But the Times might not think it’s worth having on their site anymore. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 12:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1606 "2012-11-05T12:41:18Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Obama may have [an advantage](http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/11/04/are_indies_coming_back_to_obama.html) with independent voters now. That’s the trend with the most recent polls. thanks for this. It’s nice to see some data about this often asserted never cited claim of runaway numbers among independents for romney. Of course, sandy is to blame. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 1:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1607 "2012-11-05T13:11:21Z")
> [@asterion](#): > > I believe it’s Nate’s, based on comments I’ve seen, but don’t hold me to that. If anything, especially if Silver nails it again, I really think that the NYT needs him a lot more than he needs it. All being on the NYT has done, as far as I can tell, is stick a paywall up on content that used to be free. I suspect it also vastly increases the revenue Nate himself receives for his writing. ---
**Author:** ![C3](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/c3/32/3108_2.png) [@C3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/C3)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 1:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1608 "2012-11-05T13:14:11Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Elendil’s Heir, I know you’re disappointed the canvassing didn’t work out, but could you and your son join a phone bank this evening? (Bring you cell phone.) Lots being organized in homes and offices. Not as much of an experience, and lower effectiveness rate than knocking on doors, but better than nothing. Just don’t let the handful of hostile reactions to the phone call get you down. Forget it and move on. You can phone bank from your home, too. Just go to [barackobama.com](http://barackobama.com) and click on Volunteer/Make Calls. You can choose to join a phone bank at someone’s house or you can make calls on your own. They’ll give you numbers to call, scripts, etc. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1609 "2012-11-05T13:19:16Z")
> [@bengangmo](#): > > Nate says Obama’s chances are now up to 86% (88% in the now cast) > > His average sees Obama getting 50.6% of the national vote… > > It looks like it’s going to be a comfortable day for the Dems on Tuesday… This is the highest percentage Obama has had in all the time Nate Silver has been running things ever except for October 4th when he was a 87.1% chance favorite. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1610 "2012-11-05T13:32:34Z")
Yep, he appears to have regained, in aggregate, the space he lost after that first debate. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1611 "2012-11-05T13:58:55Z")
Matthew Dowd - a Republican strategist - on _This Week with George Stephanopoulos_: > [@](#): > > (E)very time you feel a losing campaign, these three things happen. The first thing happens is, don’t believe — the public polls are wrong. That’s the first sign of a campaign that’s about to lose. The second thing, we’re going to change the nature of the electorate, and you’re not seeing it reflected in the polls. And the third thing is, the only poll that counts is Election Day. When you hear those things, you know you’re about to lose. > > [ABC News](http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/11/sunday-sound-heard-on-this-week-23/) Of course, in the same show, George Will predicted that Romney would win Minnesota… So there’s that… I used to respect George Will. At what point did he decide that intellectual conservatism needed to vanish at the hands of GOP Derp? ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1612 "2012-11-05T14:03:06Z")
Based on my own OWBNID poll\*, Obama wins the popular vote in a squeaker but takes the electoral college vote by a comfortable margin. Mitt is meat. \*Often Wrong, But Never In Doubt \*\*I have already voted so I know how things will turn out. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1613 "2012-11-05T14:21:11Z")
Mitt will carry Ontario. ---
**Author:** ![Oliveritaly](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/oliveritaly/32/15233_2.png) [@Oliveritaly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oliveritaly)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1614 "2012-11-05T14:36:15Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > Matthew Dowd - a Republican strategist - on _This Week with George Stephanopoulos_:Of course, in the same show, George Will predicted that Romney would win Minnesota… So there’s that… > > I used to respect George Will. At what point did he decide that intellectual conservatism needed to vanish at the hands of GOP Derp? George Will has Romney taking Minnesota? Yeesh that seems a far fetch prediction. ---
**Author:** ![Belowjob2.0](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Belowjob2.0](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Belowjob2.0)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1615 "2012-11-05T14:36:28Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Mitt will carry Ontario. > **[Ontario, California](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario,_California)** > > Ontario is a city in southwestern San Bernardino County, California, United States, 35 miles (56 km) east of downtown Los Angeles and 23 miles (37 km) west of downtown San Bernardino, the county seat. Located in the western part of the Inland Empire metropolitan area, it lies just east of Los Angeles County and is part of the Greater Los Angeles Area. As of the 2020 census, the city had a population of 175,265. > The city is home to Ontario International Airport, which is the 9th-busiest airport... It’s possible, but not likely. Romney will do better than in Los Angeles, but will still lose. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1616 "2012-11-05T14:41:02Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Mitt will carry Ontario. Uh, no, actually. The [current poll](http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/11/04/canada-calls-the-u-s-election-guess-who-wins-obama-or-romney/) has Obama in the lead, 75% to 15% amongst Ontarians. That is slightly better for Romney than the Canadian national poll, which has Obama ahead, 78% to 12%. Hey, just because we can’t vote in your election doesn’t mean we don’t have opinions… 😛 ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1617 "2012-11-05T14:42:07Z")
> [@Oliveritaly](#): > > George Will has Romney taking Minnesota? Yeesh that seems a far fetch prediction. He claims that the ballot initiative on same sex marriage will bring out the evangelicals. ---
**Author:** ![MsWhatsit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/eb8c5e/32.png) [@MsWhatsit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MsWhatsit)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1618 "2012-11-05T14:42:26Z")
There is a Romney blimp flying over Columbus, Ohio today. Complete with picture of Romney’s face plastered on the side. This surely will be the deciding factor. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1619 "2012-11-05T14:43:12Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > He claims that the ballot initiative on same sex marriage will bring out the evangelicals. Which is a great plan to win the 2004 election. But at least Will is only living in the recent past for that particular column. He’s more often in about 1981, if not 1961. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1620 "2012-11-05T14:51:02Z")
> [@MsWhatsit](#): > > There is a Romney blimp flying over Columbus, Ohio today. Complete with picture of Romney’s face plastered on the side. > > This surely will be the deciding factor. [Found a picture of it.](http://images.sodahead.com/polls/003265479/1843530685_romney_hindenburg_xlarge.png) ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1621 "2012-11-05T14:55:41Z")
So, from what I can tell, Barack Obama is doing 3 events today (in OH, WI, and IA). The Bidens are doing 1 (VA). Michelle O is doing 2 (NC(?), FL). Bill Clinton is parked in PA all day. By contrast, Romney is doing 5 (in 4 states - FL, VA, OH, NH) and Ryan is doing 4 also (in 4 states - NV, CO, IA, OH). No idea where (if anywhere) the wives are. Anybody know if it’s typically the winner or the loser that has a busier “final push”? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=80) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=82)