# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 82
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1622 "2012-11-05T14:56:45Z")
is anyone else having trouble bringing the Red State site up? My computer hasn’t been able to load it for several days… Blocked by President Obama? :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Crotalus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crotalus/32/41_2.png) [@Crotalus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crotalus)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1623 "2012-11-05T14:57:26Z")
😃 > [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > [Found a picture of it.](http://images.sodahead.com/polls/003265479/1843530685_romney_hindenburg_xlarge.png) ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1624 "2012-11-05T14:59:31Z")
Oh the robotiny! ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1625 "2012-11-05T15:01:35Z")
> [@Truman\_Burbank](#): > > is anyone else having trouble bringing the Red State site up? Works for me. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1626 "2012-11-05T15:29:32Z")
> [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](#): > > thanks for this. It’s nice to see some data about this often asserted never cited claim of runaway numbers among independents for romney. > > Of course, sandy is to blame. All polls taken from yesterday or this morning for which I could find breakdown. Rasmussen: Romney +9 among Indies CNN: Romney +22 among Indies YouGov: Romney +9.9 among Indies NBC/WSJ: Romney +7 among Indies Pew: Romney +3 among Indies WaPo/ABC: Romney +3 among Indies Politico: Obama +1 among Indies PPP: Obama +4 among Indies Since averaging is the cool thing to do, that gives us an average of about a 6.1% lead among Indies for Romney, which would be a 14 point swing from 2008. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1627 "2012-11-05T15:35:50Z")
Can you link to this CNN poll? It seems to be a ridiculous outlier based on the number alone… And it seems ridiculous that you would even include such a ridiculous outlier in an average… ---
**Author:** ![montag01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/51bf81/32.png) [@montag01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/montag01)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1628 "2012-11-05T15:36:32Z")
When you have Paul Ryan coming to my state, Colorado, and claiming that Obama compromises and threatens Judeo Christian values, then it is a good sign the Romney-Ryan team believes they’re on the verge of losing. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1629 "2012-11-05T15:39:35Z")
He reports it correctly. Here’s the link:[http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/11/04/top16.pdf](http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/11/04/top16.pdf) Notably, the same poll has Liberals 94% Obama, moderates 59% Obama, and Conservatives 21% Obama. That kinds blows a whole in the notion that independents are the swingy middle. Of course, all of this is involving sub-samples of only a hundred or so of each group. So the MoE is 6.5% on each side. ---
**Author:** ![Dob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b2d939/32.png) [@Dob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dob)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1630 "2012-11-05T15:43:26Z")
I think this election will be very much like 2004, except switched. Kerry was neck and neck nationally leading up to Election but GW won the popular and electoral votes easily. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1631 "2012-11-05T15:50:26Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > Can you link to this CNN poll? It seems to be a ridiculous outlier based on the number alone… And it seems ridiculous that you would even include such a ridiculous outlier in an average… If I didn’t include all the recent polls that I could find the internals for, I’d be accused of “picking and choosing”. Do you want me to pick and choose? I wouldn’t think so. Anyway, I found another poll so I will amend my last post. > [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > All polls taken from yesterday or this morning for which I could find breakdown. > > Rasmussen: Romney +9 among Indies > CNN: Romney +22 among Indies > YouGov: Romney +9.9 among Indies > NBC/WSJ: Romney +7 among Indies > Pew: Romney +3 among Indies > WaPo/ABC: Romney +3 among Indies > Politico: Obama +1 among Indies > PPP: Obama +4 among Indies > **Gravis Marketing: Romney +18 among Indies** > > Since averaging is the cool thing to do, that gives us an average of about a **7.4** % lead among Indies for Romney, which would be a **15** point swing from 2008. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1632 "2012-11-05T15:51:05Z")
The funny thing about **OMG** ’s argument is that while he dismisses most of the polls as wrong, he clutches _hard_ to little details of the internals of some of those same polls. So the pollsters are really screwed up about who’s winning OH, VA, NV, and IA, for example, but they’re _dead on_ about who’s winning independents. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1633 "2012-11-05T16:02:37Z")
Internals matter more than the top line because that is how you gauge the true state of the race. The top line can be fudged based on the D/R/I split. I’ve been saying this more at least two months now, so it’s nothing new. You guys clutch hard to the top lines because it shows you want you want to hear, even as unlikely an occurrence as it is. But we’ve got one more day 'till the election. I’m actually fairly excited. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1634 "2012-11-05T16:19:30Z")
It seems very likely to me that many of the “independents” are disaffected Republicans from 2008. But we will see, only one day left. It hardly matters what we say or believe at this point. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1635 "2012-11-05T16:20:38Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Internals matter more than the top line because that is how you gauge the true state of the race. The top line can be fudged based on the D/R/I split. I’ve been saying this more at least two months now, so it’s nothing new. You guys clutch hard to the top lines because it shows you want you want to hear, even as unlikely an occurrence as it is. > > But we’ve got one more day 'till the election. I’m actually fairly excited. If you end up being right, I want you to pick horses for me next time I go to the races. Also stocks. ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1636 "2012-11-05T16:21:49Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Internals matter more than the top line because that is how you gauge the true state of the race. The top line can be fudged based on the D/R/I split. I’ve been saying this more at least two months now, so it’s nothing new. You guys clutch hard to the top lines because it shows you want you want to hear, even as unlikely an occurrence as it is. > > But we’ve got one more day 'till the election. I’m actually fairly excited. I’m sure you realize that the margin of error increases dramatically as you drill down to look at internals. The top line numbers are much more accurate. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1637 "2012-11-05T17:07:51Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Internals matter more than the top line because that is how you gauge the true state of the race. The top line can be fudged based on the D/R/I split. I’ve been saying this more at least two months now, so it’s nothing new. You guys clutch hard to the top lines because it shows you want you want to hear, even as unlikely an occurrence as it is. Historically, the best way to predict an election is to average the top lines of state polls. My side ignored the top lines and focused on the internals, like you’re doing, in 2004, and we were way wrong. I think you’re making the same mistakes my side did in 2004- every argument you’ve made (except for perhaps the early-voting numbers one) was made by my side in reverse in 04. > [@](#): > > But we’ve got one more day 'till the election. I’m actually fairly excited. Me too! ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1638 "2012-11-05T17:17:56Z")
Does dread, anxiety, fear and loathing count as “excited”? Then, me too. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1639 "2012-11-05T17:21:32Z")
I’m excited it’s almost over. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1640 "2012-11-05T17:24:22Z")
I’m excited about this quarter cow my wife and I are picking up tonight. Grass fed and finished. Mmm-mmm good eatin’ for a year no matter who wins tomorrow! ---
**Author:** ![howye](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a9adbd/32.png) [@howye](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/howye)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1641 "2012-11-05T17:26:25Z")
> [@MsWhatsit](#): > > There is a Romney blimp flying over Columbus, Ohio today. Complete with picture of Romney’s face plastered on the side. > > This surely will be the deciding factor. Yes, yes, the blimp flying over a downtown arena filled with… Obama supporters. During a weekday afternoon. Meanwhile, Romney’s swing through Ohio includes a rousing stop at an airplane hangar somewhere near the airport. At rush hour. Yup, can you feel the Mittcitment? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=81) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=83)