# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 83
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1642 "2012-11-05T17:27:13Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > I’m excited about this quarter cow my wife and I are picking up tonight. Grass fed and finished. Mmm-mmm good eatin’ for a year no matter who wins tomorrow! MPSIMS is another forum. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1643 "2012-11-05T17:31:28Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > MPSIMS is another forum. Oh sorry, all of the mundane pointless shit being posted in this thread confused me. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1644 "2012-11-05T17:39:16Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Oh sorry, all of the mundane pointless shit being posted in this thread confused me. Unsurprisingly, there is a difference between things which are off topic and things which are on topic but you do not agree with or like. I would hope a moderator could avail you of the difference… ---
**Author:** ![zut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zut/32/2875_2.png) [@zut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zut)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1645 "2012-11-05T17:41:18Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Internals matter more than the top line because that is how you gauge the true state of the race. The top line can be fudged based on the D/R/I split. I’ve been saying this more at least two months now, so it’s nothing new. You guys clutch hard to the top lines because it shows you want you want to hear, even as unlikely an occurrence as it is. > > But we’ve got one more day 'till the election. I’m actually fairly excited. The split between Democratic Republican and Independent votors and the polling margin between Obama and Romney in the independents are inextricably linked. For example, in the [CNN poll](http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/11/04/top16.pdf), Romney is up by 22 points among independents, but the same poll shows 11% more Dems than Reps (30-41). In comparison, the [Pew Research Poll](http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-detailed_tables/DetailedTables.pdf) shows Romney up by 4 points among independents, but with 6% more Dems than Reps (32-38). The [Politico poll](http://images.politico.com/global/2012/11/politico_gwbgptracking_nov4_weighted_tables.html) shows Obama up by 1 among independents, but with only 3% more Dems than Reps (40-43). So there’s a pretty clear correlation between a large Romney lead among independents and a lower percentage of people identifying as Republicans (which should be self-evident, given that the totals of all these polls are fairly consistent). You can’t really legitimately argue _both_ that Reps are being undercounted _and_ independents are substantially breaking for Romney. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1646 "2012-11-05T17:44:12Z")
RCP’s no toss ups map has switched Virginia over from Romney to Obama, giving Obama 303 votes. I thought that was a likely outcome (said so last week). The no toss ups map uses any lead, however small, and the spread is only 0.3% so argue away at what that means. Rasmussen has Romney ahead, but it doesn’t call cell phones. I find this such a serious systematic bias in its methodology that I prophesize that it will change this by the 2014 election. It really doesn’t matter much. Remember that Obama can lose Virginia and Ohio both and still eke out a victory. He got 365 votes last election. He had 95 to lose. More than that was never going to happen. Polls just reflect that reality, not cause it. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1647 "2012-11-05T17:46:47Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > Unsurprisingly, there is a difference between things which are off topic and things which are on topic but you do not agree with or like. I would hope a moderator could avail you of the difference… WTF? ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1648 "2012-11-05T17:59:41Z")
> [@zut](#): > > The split between Democratic Republican and Independent votors and the polling margin between Obama and Romney in the independents are inextricably linked. > > For example, in the [CNN poll](http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/11/04/top16.pdf), Romney is up by 22 points among independents, but the same poll shows 11% more Dems than Reps (30-41). In comparison, the [Pew Research Poll](http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-detailed_tables/DetailedTables.pdf) shows Romney up by 4 points among independents, but with 6% more Dems than Reps (32-38). The [Politico poll](http://images.politico.com/global/2012/11/politico_gwbgptracking_nov4_weighted_tables.html) shows Obama up by 1 among independents, but with only 3% more Dems than Reps (40-43). > > So there’s a pretty clear correlation between a large Romney lead among independents and a lower percentage of people identifying as Republicans (which should be self-evident, given that the totals of all these polls are fairly consistent). You can’t really legitimately argue _both_ that Reps are being undercounted _and_ independents are substantially breaking for Romney. I happen to like your sample size of three. Makes for a compelling argument. (It doesn’t.) Nice way to cherry pick the three polls which most make your point. ---
**Author:** ![zut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zut/32/2875_2.png) [@zut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zut)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1649 "2012-11-05T18:04:24Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Nice way to cherry pick the three polls which most make your point. I “cherry picked” the first three polls I could find the complete data for. If you want to link to the complete data for the rest, I’d be happy to run the numbers for you. Nice insinuation, though. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1650 "2012-11-05T18:06:23Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > I’m excited about this quarter cow my wife and I are picking up tonight. Grass fed and finished. Mmm-mmm good eatin’ for a year no matter who wins tomorrow! So, you are going to, quite literally, have a cow. Well, a quarter of a cow. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1651 "2012-11-05T18:18:09Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > Uh, no, actually. > > The [current poll](http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/11/04/canada-calls-the-u-s-election-guess-who-wins-obama-or-romney/) has Obama in the lead, 75% to 15% amongst Ontarians. That is slightly better for Romney than the Canadian national poll, which has Obama ahead, 78% to 12%. > > Hey, just because we can’t vote in your election doesn’t mean we don’t have opinions… 😛 A quick back of the envelope calculation for a hypothetical future when Canada joins the US: The various Canadian (states) get 50 EV’s based on population. This means there are 538 EV’s in total and it is now “295 to Win” Every single one of the new 50 EV’s is a lock for the Democrats. (see Northern Piper’s link. Even right wing Alberta would go 57% - 23% Obama) ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1652 "2012-11-05T18:18:18Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > Note today’s [xkcd](http://xkcd.com/1130/), particularly the mouseover text. A good complement to the mouseover text of[this xkcd from November 2008](http://xkcd.com/500/). ---
**Author:** ![Bosstone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/22d042/32.png) [@Bosstone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosstone)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1653 "2012-11-05T18:33:07Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > WTF? It’s not just the Republicans who are strung out, apparently. ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1654 "2012-11-05T18:36:07Z")
Gallup, [in their first poll released](http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/gallup-national-poll-romney-49-obama-48?ref=fpb)since Sandy, has Romney now at only +1. So it looks like they took the storm to get their shit in line with the rest of reality. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1655 "2012-11-05T18:39:09Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > A quick back of the envelope calculation for a hypothetical future when Canada joins the US: > > The various Canadian (states) get 50 EV’s based on population. This means there are 538 EV’s in total and it is now “295 to Win” > > Every single one of the new 50 EV’s is a lock for the Democrats. (see Northern Piper’s link. Even right wing Alberta would go 57% - 23% Obama) Which is why, any time there’s a discussion of the break-up of Canada, and someone says, “Well, we’ll just have to join the US, eh,” the answer is “They won’t take us.” What Republican in his right mind would vote for the admission of that voting bloc? ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1656 "2012-11-05T18:40:47Z")
Well I am casting my vote for Obama tomorrow in this conservative Georgia district where I have not cast a vote for a winning candidate for state or federal office since Zell Miller (he was a Democrat, we all know how well that turned out.) But I will vote, not because my vote has a chance in hell of influencing state and federal numbers right now, but because of the local races which are more apolitical, and because I like to back up my opinions with deeds. Then it’s back to researching progressive parties for the next election. It is not pretty … but I did not think it would be. And at least it’s a choice. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1657 "2012-11-05T19:07:09Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > A quick back of the envelope calculation for a hypothetical future when Canada joins the US: > > The various Canadian (states) get 50 EV’s based on population. This can’t be correct, since every state gets a minimum of 3 EVs. If you were to assume that they would simply add representatives proportional to each province/state’s population (and thus go above the 435 set by the 1929 Reappointment Act, which is possible and would be fairer than staying at 435 and reducing all states’ numbers) and then further assumed each Canadian provicne would become a state (which makes no sense in the case of Prince Edward Island, but whatever) and that the northern territories become US territories without EVs, then the EVs would break down like this, based on the 2011 census: Ontario: 20 Quebec: 13 British Columbia: 8 Alberta: 7 Manitoba: 4 Saskatchewan: 4 Nova Scotia: 3 New Brunswick: 3 Newfoundland & Labrador: 3 PEI : 3 So the total in this scenario is 68. If you made _all of Canada one state_, which would look really weird on a map, then it’d be 50. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1658 "2012-11-05T19:09:16Z")
> [@Bob Ducca](#): > > Gallup, [in their first poll released](http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/gallup-national-poll-romney-49-obama-48?ref=fpb)since Sandy, has Romney now at only +1. So it looks like they took the storm to get their shit in line with the rest of reality. Are you looking at the same graph I am? They’re reporting pretty much the same thing they’ve been reporting since the Denver debate. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1659 "2012-11-05T19:12:12Z")
I’m pretty sure Gallup had Romney up by 5 or 6 sometime shortly after Denver. (edit: by 7 on the 18th) ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1660 "2012-11-05T19:13:18Z")
Yes, they did. The graph linked in that post is not just Gallup. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1661 "2012-11-05T19:14:04Z")
Gallup was R+5 in their previous release (pre-Sandy). It is now R+1, which is still at the Romney-friendly end of the current polling (which is now pretty much entirely clustered between O+3 and R+1). Evidence of the “pollster herding” effect? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=82) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=84)