# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 86
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1702 "2012-11-05T22:03:45Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Do you actually think that the pollsters have method of calling a certain proportion of ethnic minorities when they do their polling? They adjust their numbers based on demographics. They have to, because they would otherwise undersample the young and minorities and oversample the elderly. ---
**Author:** ![LinusK](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/258eb7/32.png) [@LinusK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LinusK)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1703 "2012-11-05T22:08:05Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > **Measure for Measure** , I don’t think house effects involve the same kind of bias as the skewed poll theory. > > House effects are the consistent departure of a polling firm’s results from the means for that race. You could also calculate them based on departure from the election results in the previous cycle, but I don’t think that’s what Nate does (and in any event, would still be distinct from the skewed polls theory). > > By contrast, the skewed polls theory is that the particular turnout model used by most pollsters for this election is wrong. This is not captured by either method of calculating house effects. In other words, they’re saying “Pollsters expect x% of blacks to vote and y% of Hispanics, but really it will be x-3 and y-7.” Do pollsters really weight polls this way? ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1704 "2012-11-05T22:10:29Z")
> [@LinusK](#): > > In other words, they’re saying “Pollsters expect x% of blacks to vote and y% of Hispanics, but really it will be x-3 and y-7.” > > Do pollsters really weight polls this way? That’s right. Many do weight polls that way, but not all. The thing is, this kind of weighing _works_. In aggregate, they get it right, even when the election is exceptional. If anything was going to test that, it would be 2008. In theory, having the first black man on the presidential ballot should have made the demographic margins really hard to predict. But, as it turned out, the aggregate did just fine after all. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1705 "2012-11-05T22:11:00Z")
They do. They don’t just call 3000 people and whoever answers that’s who they go with. They weight the polls in various ways to make the sample representative of America(or a particular state). that involves making some assumptions. On one hand, it makes the polling more scientific, but on the other it can mean the pollsters can get it wrong. No one’s made money betting against the polls, but that does not mean they are always right. Most of them are working on the assumption that 2008 will see growth in minority turnout comparable to the last few Presidential elections. Problem is, 2008 saw a big jump in minority turnout and a big fall in white turnout, so it’s more likely that the electorate in 2012 will look more like the 2004 electorate than the 2008 electorate. That’s the assumption Gallup is working with, which is why they’ve been showing better results for Romney than even Rasmussen most of the time. What I want to know is how Nate Silver readjusts his system if a minority of pollsters got it right while the majority got it wrong. Is there even a way to account for that? He works from an assumption that an average of polls will probably get it right, but if the majority of pollsters are doing it wrong, then that doesn’t work. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1706 "2012-11-05T22:13:14Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Problem is, 2008 saw a big jump in minority turnout and a big fall in white turnout. This is inaccurate. The jump from '04-'08 is exactly the same as the jump from '00-'04. ETA: To be more precise, the increase in the actual absolute turnout level (% of the electorate comprised by each demographic) was perfectly steady. The turnout rates (% of eligible voters who vote) accelerated slightly, but this did not alter the overall increase in proportions. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1707 "2012-11-05T22:19:40Z")
According to Pew’s numbers, I’m right: > **[Dissecting the 2008 Electorate: Most Diverse in U.S. History](https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/2009/04/30/dissecting-the-2008-electorate-most-diverse-in-us-history/)** > > The electorate in last year’s presidential election was the most racially and ethnically diverse in U.S. history, with nearly one-in-four votes cast by non-whites, according to a new analysis of Census Bureau data. The white share of the vote fell 1.5% from 2000 to 2004, but a whopping 2.9% from 2004 to 2008. A lot of that was whites staying home in 2008. If the assumption is that whites will turn out at the same rate as they did in 2008, then that assumption could be wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1708 "2012-11-05T22:22:57Z")
The [exit polls](http://www.dimpledchad.info/result/) had it as a 3.3 drop election-over-election for both cycles. Not sure how Pew is measuring it if not by exit polls. Reading the full report, it looks like it’s based on their own polling data. Might be more reliable than exit polls, I don’t know. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1709 "2012-11-05T22:25:40Z")
> [@The\_Lurker\_Above](#): > > I agree that it’d look weird on the map, and make zero sense politically. But imagine the reponse from a stereotypical Texan. 😛 Speaking as an American, I can think of no reason why Canada should want to be part of the USA. They are pretty much a European style country, while American is sliding rapidly into Third World-hood. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1710 "2012-11-05T22:25:54Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > What I want to know is how Nate Silver readjusts his system if a minority of pollsters got it right while the majority got it wrong. Is there even a way to account for that? He works from an assumption that an average of polls will probably get it right, but if the majority of pollsters are doing it wrong, then that doesn’t work. Define ‘right’ and ‘wrong.’ It seems like a lot of people are saying calling the winner correctly is the measure - it’s not. Getting it “right,” for a pollster, is the vote percentage being within the margin of error of your poll. If a pollster says Romney is ahead by 1% with a 3% margin of error, but Obama wins by 1%, the pollster’s poll was correct. If Nate Silver thinks a pollster is poor, he drives them to obscurity or out of business (Research 2000, Strategic Vision, Zogby). ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1711 "2012-11-05T22:29:03Z")
Individual polls are “right” if they get within the margin of error, but Nate Silver assumes that an average of polls weighted by reliability gives you a good idea of who is going to win. If that average is wrong, then Silver’s system fails. He has to readjust for 2016. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1712 "2012-11-05T22:35:02Z")
Nate’s model is still good if the state predictions are close to actuality. If he predicts a state will be close then it’s not a bad model if it goes the opposite direction of his guess. It would be a bad model if he predicted Virginia or Colorado were going to Romney with 95% certainty and they went to Obama. It would be a bad model if he predicted Illinois would be close and it went 63/35. For this discussion to make sense, I need to know what’s ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ for the various pollsters that you talk about - a minority get it _right_, and a majority get it _wrong_. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1713 "2012-11-05T22:36:17Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Individual polls are “right” if they get within the margin of error, but Nate Silver assumes that an average of polls weighted by reliability gives you a good idea of who is going to win. If that average is wrong, then Silver’s system fails. He has to readjust for 2016. He does list his margin of error for state polls, and I assume that’s based on taking all those polls in aggregate. For example, his projection for Ohio is 51.1-47.9 Obama, with a 2.9 percentage point margin of error. ---
**Author:** ![SpoilerVirgin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/4491bb/32.png) [@SpoilerVirgin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpoilerVirgin)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1714 "2012-11-05T22:48:27Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > What I want to know is how Nate Silver readjusts his system if a minority of pollsters got it right while the majority got it wrong. Is there even a way to account for that? He works from an assumption that an average of polls will probably get it right, but if the majority of pollsters are doing it wrong, then that doesn’t work. If the majority of pollsters are doing it wrong, then Nate will analyze exactly what was wrong with the methodology of those polls, and account for the possibility of that type of error in subsequent predictions. He has said that much of the current percentage he is allowing for the results to be different from those predicted by the polls comes from the possibility of polling errors. If results from this election show that polls are less accurate than his current model assumes, he will adjust the model for that. That is why he is not making yes/no predictions, but instead providing percentages. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1715 "2012-11-05T23:30:44Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > What I want to know is how Nate Silver readjusts his system if a minority of pollsters got it right while the majority got it wrong. Is there even a way to account for that? That’s the 16% chance Romney has of winning. He said a couple days ago that that number represents the chance the polls are statistically biased. ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1716 "2012-11-05T23:45:52Z")
Newt Gingrich says Romney has lost. [Errant Email to Newt Gingrich Supporters Says ‘Obama Is Going to Win’](http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/errant-email-newt-gingrich-supporters-obama-win/story?id=17618977#.UJhOd8XR78n) ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1717 "2012-11-06T00:50:28Z")
Today’s story of Romney’s internal polls showing him leading all over the swing states made me do a little nostalgia diving: Time’s “Swampland” blog, Nov 2, 2008: > [@](#): > > On a brief jump flight from Philadelphia to Scranton, McCain adviser Charlie Black and Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback came back to talk up the campaign’s conviction that the glass if half full. “Four years ago at this point, George W. Bush was down five points in Iowa,” Brownback said. “Today John McCain is down one point in Iowa.” > > He was citing an unreleased internal McCain campaign poll of the state, which was completed last Thursday, said Black. > […] > “McCain is in a good position to win every red state,” Black said. “Plus he is probably going to win Pennsylvania and Iowa.” Polls have narrowed sharply in Pennsylvania in recent weeks, though Obama still has a sizable lead of 7 points in the Real Clear Politics average. Black said he had seen a poll recently that showed McCain tied in the Philadelphia suburbs, a crucial swing region of the state. Letter by McCain pollster Bill McInturff on National Review Online, Oct 28, 2008: > [@](#): > > First, let’s be clear: This is a hard election to “predict.” > > The historic nature of the candidates on both tickets, the huge influx of unregulated money by the Obama campaign, the dour public mood, and the unique level of voter interest all suggest an historic level of turn-out, not witnessed in over 40 years. > > Our models/understanding of what is coming is therefore necessarily projective, but, here is what we know for sure: > > The McCain campaign has made impressive strides over the last week of tracking. > > The campaign is functionally tied across the battleground states … with our numbers IMPROVING sharply over the last four tracks. > […] > > 1. We are witnessing a significant shift across the battleground states. > > The race has moved significantly over the past week, closing to essentially tied on the last two-day roll. > […] > 2. It is not surprising we are witnessing this closing as we are finally having an opportunity to run a campaign that focuses on Senator Obama’s record on taxes and his lack of experience. […] The campaign’s relentless focus has helped strengthen our margins on the issue of taxes and broadened as well to the attribute of handling the economy and jobs. > […] > 3. Our opponent is being correctly perceived as the most liberal nominee in modern times. > […] > 4. Turn-out IS going to go through the roof. > > Public Opinion Strategies has been using a 1 to 10 scale to help look at self-described interest in the election since 1993. In 1996, in our last track, 48% of voters described their interest in the election as a “10.” In 2000, the last track was 54% saying “10.” Remarkably, in 2004, our last track had self-described “10s” at 75% of the electorate. > […] > 5. There is more elasticity in this campaign than is imagined. […] These undecided/refuse to respond voters breaking decisively against Senator Obama mirrors the pattern of the last two months of the Democrat primary season. > > When they do break, I believe they will add a net three plus points to our margins. > […] > 6. I am becoming more and more convinced Senator Obama “gets what he gets in the tracking.” […] I am becoming increasingly persuaded it will be very difficult for Senator Obama to perform much above his percentage of the vote in a state. This puts any number of historically red states very much “in play” and MUCH more competitive than is generally believed by the media. But critically, as Obama drops below 50% in other blue states, some of these states may also becoming back in play as well. Stop me if any of this sounds familiar… ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 1:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1718 "2012-11-06T01:03:57Z")
> [@Lamar\_Mundane](#): > > Newt Gingrich says Romney has lost. > > [Errant Email to Newt Gingrich Supporters Says ‘Obama Is Going to Win’](http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/errant-email-newt-gingrich-supporters-obama-win/story?id=17618977#.UJhOd8XR78n) You’re burying the lead. Apparently Obama will steal an unconstitutional third term and stay in office until 2020. Why he’s going to stop then is unclear. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1719 "2012-11-06T01:05:29Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > You’re burying the lead. Apparently Obama will steal an unconstitutional third term and stay in office until 2020. Why he’s going to stop then is unclear. Because FEMA only has eight years of body bags. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1720 "2012-11-06T01:06:34Z")
One of the campaigns is still polling PA, I can report tonight. I got a poll call from a pollster using a phone number that also did polling of CO on July 29, and the only questions were about the presidential race. No public poll had calls in the field on that date, so I guess it’s a campaign. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1721 "2012-11-06T01:14:22Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > Today’s story of Romney’s internal polls showing him leading all over the swing states made me do a little nostalgia diving: > Time’s “Swampland” blog, Nov 2, 2008: > > Letter by McCain pollster Bill McInturff on National Review Online, Oct 28, 2008: > Stop me if any of this sounds familiar… Meanwhile, Obama is in Wisconsin and Bill Clinton is in Pennsylvania; states Obama won comfortably in 2008. Last year at this time guess where Obama was? Indiana. Makes one wonder, doesn’t it? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=85) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=87)