# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 87
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1722 "2012-11-06T01:34:33Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > That’s right. Many do weight polls that way, but not all. > > The thing is, this kind of weighing _works_. In aggregate, they get it right, even when the election is exceptional. If anything was going to test that, it would be 2008. In theory, having the first black man on the presidential ballot should have made the demographic margins really hard to predict. But, as it turned out, the aggregate did just fine after all. Note however: That is only in the _likely voter_ polls. The polls that generally add some to the R side compared to the registered voter polls that correct for demography but according to things like census information. That’s still subject to potential systemic errors … assuming the portion who respond to your survey fairly represent the demographic group is a big assumption. Those who are where “the light is good” may not be exactly like those who are not. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1723 "2012-11-06T01:56:15Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Meanwhile, Obama is in Wisconsin and Bill Clinton is in Pennsylvania; states Obama won comfortably in 2008. Last year at this time guess where Obama was? Indiana. Makes one wonder, doesn’t it? About what? ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1724 "2012-11-06T01:59:24Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > You’re burying the lead. Apparently Obama will steal an unconstitutional third term and stay in office until 2020. Why he’s going to stop then is unclear. I work with a guy who _honestly_ believes that if Obama wins tomorrow, then he will install himself as a dictator and will serve for the rest of his life. Why he has to win the election tomorrow instead of just doing it right now, well, that’s a stumper. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1725 "2012-11-06T01:59:28Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Meanwhile, Obama is in Wisconsin and Bill Clinton is in Pennsylvania; states Obama won comfortably in 2008. Last year at this time guess where Obama was? Indiana. Makes one wonder, doesn’t it? I noted this last time against McCain and I note this again: Obama is a poker player and one who does not bet wildly. Last time Team Obama had both a cash and an organizational avantage; making plays for a wide variety of relatively long shot plays and straining the oppositions cash and organizational resources in the response made sense. This time Team Romney (plus SuperPacs) had more money and at least as much organization. In that circumstance you focus your game. Don’t get cocky with the states you need. Note Obama was also in Ohio and Iowa today. Over the week end he was with Clinton in Virginia and Clinton also made it to North Carolina. Indiana? Not this year. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1726 "2012-11-06T02:00:59Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > About what? Makes me wonder what Indiana was doing voting for Obama in 2008. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1727 "2012-11-06T02:16:05Z")
Nate the Great now has Obama’s chances at 91.4%. ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1728 "2012-11-06T02:19:47Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Meanwhile, Obama is in Wisconsin and Bill Clinton is in Pennsylvania; states Obama won comfortably in 2008. Last year at this time guess where Obama was? Indiana. Makes one wonder, doesn’t it? As I noted in updating your “Obama is toast” thread. Nate thinks Wisconsin is 94.5% likely to go to Obama. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1729 "2012-11-06T02:34:10Z")
> [@drewtwo99](#): > > Why he has to win the election tomorrow instead of just doing it right now, well, that’s a stumper. Well, he needs time to get the FEMA concentration camps in order, since the hurricane depleted their resources. Anyway, who can guess about the timelines that the Lizard People have ordered? They’re inscrutable. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1730 "2012-11-06T02:35:15Z")
> [@bup](#): > > Nate the Great now has Obama’s chances at 91.4%. Huh. I just looked an hour ago, and it was showing the early-afternoon probability of 87.3% (or so). I notice that Florida has flipped from pale pink to pale blue. I wonder what brought that on. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1731 "2012-11-06T02:41:07Z")
> [@Lamar\_Mundane](#): > > Newt Gingrich says Romney has lost. > > [Errant Email to Newt Gingrich Supporters Says ‘Obama Is Going to Win’](http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/errant-email-newt-gingrich-supporters-obama-win/story?id=17618977#.UJhOd8XR78n) > [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > You’re burying the lead. Apparently Obama will steal an unconstitutional third term and stay in office until 2020. Why he’s going to stop then is unclear. According to the linked story, recipients of the e-mail are directed to a video from some outfit called “Stansberry & Associates”. The story doesn’t provide a link to this amazing video, but [my Google-fu is strong](http://pro.stansberryresearch.com/1210THIRDLIA/LPSINB03/). (Warning: Contents of video resemble a cleaned-up, but ultimately no more logical or coherent, version of the rantings of a schizophrenic homeless person.) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1732 "2012-11-06T02:52:24Z")
> [@kaylasdad99](#): > > I notice that Florida has flipped from pale pink to pale blue. I wonder what brought that on. Gravis Marketing moved from Romney+3 to tie … seems slight but the change from, what was it 55% for a Romney win, to 52.5% for an Obama one, is so slight as to inconsequential anyway. Maybe the national poll spread in his model moving up to 2.7% (from 2.1% yesterday) impacts the state level too? ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1733 "2012-11-06T03:03:44Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > You’re burying the lead. Apparently Obama will steal an unconstitutional third term and stay in office until 2020. Why he’s going to stop then is unclear. Resign to accept the Presidency of the World, maybe. ---
**Author:** ![bengangmo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@bengangmo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bengangmo)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 4:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1734 "2012-11-06T04:02:43Z")
Just read Nate’s latest analysis on Ohio… [http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/05/in-ohio-polls-show-benefit-of-auto-rescue-to-obama/#more-37207](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/05/in-ohio-polls-show-benefit-of-auto-rescue-to-obama/#more-37207) Intuitively it seems logical. For all the talk about this poll’s bias and that poll’s internals, and people not changing affiliation and all the rest of it - Choosing a president that saved your job and the local economy makes perfect sense to me - at least, swinging enough people from a slight republian advantage to small democrat one feels, well, logical and easier to understand than all that Adaher and OMG have been trying to argue. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 4:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1735 "2012-11-06T04:05:29Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > I noted this last time against McCain and I note this again: Obama is a poker player and one who does not bet wildly. Last time Team Obama had both a cash and an organizational avantage; making plays for a wide variety of relatively long shot plays and straining the oppositions cash and organizational resources in the response made sense. This time Team Romney (plus SuperPacs) had more money and at least as much organization. In that circumstance you focus your game. Don’t get cocky with the states you need. Note Obama was also in Ohio and Iowa today. Over the week end he was with Clinton in Virginia and Clinton also made it to North Carolina. > > Indiana? Not this year. At this point, I think some of you guys are deluding yourselves and have simply resigned to using Nate Silver as a stopgap feel good measure. You know why Obama was campaigning in Indiana in 2008? Because he believed he could win Indiana-- indeed, his internal polling numbers proved as much-- not because he “wanted to strain McCain’s (virtually non-existent) resources”. Here’s something which I’m sure you’re well aware of. In 2008, Obama won Pennsylvania by over 10 points. In 2008, Obama won Wisconsin by 14 points. In 2008, Obama won by 9.5 points in Iowa. In 2008, Obama won Ohio by almost five points. Fast forward to 2008 and what do we have? Joe Biden is trying to drum up support in Ohio, Bill Clinton is doing a bus tour in Pennsylvania and Obama is out giving a last minute pitch in Wisconsin before jetting off to get in some last minute remarks in Ohio and Iowa. But why? He won those states _comfortably_ in 2008. The reason is quite simple; because the Obama campaign knows that those states are razor thin close, whereas one wouldn’t expect them to be based on 2008. In basketball, it’s said you watch the opposing player’s hips, not their eyes. Same deal here. Incumbents who are about to cruise their way to victory (like Axelrod says) don’t hit up states a day before/night of the election they cruised in four years earlier. The fact that Obama was campaigning in Indiana last year while this year he is either campaigning or sending out others to do it for him tells you all you need to know about the state of the race versus 2008 and how the Obama campaign thinks it’s playing out. Oh, and North Carolina? As I said elsewhere, the fact that anyone in the Obama campaign is going to North Carolina should raise some eyebrows. As has been pointed out a million times on this board, Obama doesn’t need North Carolina. Or Florida. Or Ohio. Or New Hampshire, for that matter. If Obama is either going to North Carolina or sending people there in his stead, it’s because they figure that they might-- just might-- need to win the state. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1736 "2012-11-06T04:22:45Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Elendil’s Heir, I know you’re disappointed the canvassing didn’t work out, but could you and your son join a phone bank this evening? (Bring you cell phone.) Lots being organized in homes and offices. Not as much of an experience, and lower effectiveness rate than knocking on doors, but better than nothing. Just don’t let the handful of hostile reactions to the phone call get you down. Forget it and move on. No worries. Couldn’t phonebank tonight, but I did on Friday and twice earlier, and I’ll be volunteering again tomorrow afternoon until the polls close. Don’t know if I’ll be canvassing or phonebanking again. Dems are definitely fired up here. On to victory (we hope)! ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1737 "2012-11-06T04:22:52Z")
The flexibility of your logic is impressive. Obama NOT going to a state he does not need and has a low chance of winning this time is a sign of his going to lose. A very effective surrogate (a Southern boy no less) campaigning in NC, a state he does not need to win if he wins any variety of other states he is likely to win before he wins that, is a sign of a losing campaign too. Ah, but Romney himself campaigning in PA, is a sign of strength! NC is likely in the Romney column. It will only go to Obama in what is by the level of this election a very good day for the President. Maybe tomorrow will be a very good day. If Obama loses the other states to the degree that he needs NC (Romney having a very good day indeed) then winning NC is even farther out of reach. It being a deciding state is not in the cards. Obama winning it though would sure be some nice gravy on the biscuits! ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 4:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1738 "2012-11-06T04:31:05Z")
> [@Lamar\_Mundane](#): > > Newt Gingrich says Romney has lost… Oh, fuck, we’re boned. ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 4:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1739 "2012-11-06T04:35:30Z")
I don’t think anyone expects Obama’s numbers to be as strong as in 2008. That’s a straw man. The question is whether they’re good enough for him to win. Polls suggest that they are. If they’re wrong, we’ll know soon. But I’m not too worried. ---
**Author:** ![Typo\_Knig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/cdc98d/32.png) [@Typo\_Knig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Typo_Knig)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 4:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1740 "2012-11-06T04:35:50Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > At this point, I think some of you guys are deluding yourselves and have simply resigned to using Nate Silver as a stopgap feel good measure. > > You know why Obama was campaigning in Indiana in 2008? Because he believed he could win Indiana-- indeed, his internal polling numbers proved as much-- not because he “wanted to strain McCain’s (virtually non-existent) resources”. > > Here’s something which I’m sure you’re well aware of. In 2008, Obama won Pennsylvania by over 10 points. In 2008, Obama won Wisconsin by 14 points. In 2008, Obama won by 9.5 points in Iowa. In 2008, Obama won Ohio by almost five points. Fast forward to 2008 and what do we have? Joe Biden is trying to drum up support in Ohio, Bill Clinton is doing a bus tour in Pennsylvania and Obama is out giving a last minute pitch in Wisconsin before jetting off to get in some last minute remarks in Ohio and Iowa. > > But why? He won those states _comfortably_ in 2008. The reason is quite simple; because the Obama campaign knows that those states are razor thin close, whereas one wouldn’t expect them to be based on 2008. In basketball, it’s said you watch the opposing player’s hips, not their eyes. Same deal here. Incumbents who are about to cruise their way to victory (like Axelrod says) don’t hit up states a day before/night of the election they cruised in four years earlier. The fact that Obama was campaigning in Indiana last year while this year he is either campaigning or sending out others to do it for him tells you all you need to know about the state of the race versus 2008 and how the Obama campaign thinks it’s playing out. > > Oh, and North Carolina? As I said elsewhere, the fact that anyone in the Obama campaign is going to North Carolina should raise some eyebrows. As has been pointed out a million times on this board, Obama doesn’t need North Carolina. Or Florida. Or Ohio. Or New Hampshire, for that matter. If Obama is either going to North Carolina or sending people there in his stead, it’s because they figure that they might-- just might-- need to win the state. Let’s take 8 points off Obama’s margins in those states for poops and giggles. If Obama wins PA by 2%, WI by 6%, and IA by 1.5% this time, how does Romney get to 270 EVs? I expect this election will be closer than 2008, when Barack Obama got more popular votes than any previous candidate, including St. Ronald of Reagan. Romney might even win, but to do so he must be _extremely_ overperforming his poll numbers. We’ll know soon enough. Then maybe I can watch TV and answer my phone. ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 4:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1741 "2012-11-06T04:36:50Z")
Nate has it at 92.2%. Can someone give it to me in terms of a sport/game analogy? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=86) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=88)