# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 88
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 4:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1742 "2012-11-06T04:39:55Z")
> [@drewtwo99](#): > > Nate has it at 92.2%. Can someone give it to me in terms of a sport/game analogy? There’s already a [whole thread for that](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=670790). Let’s keep the analogies there, I’d suggest. Update as desired to accommodate new Poll results. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 4:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1743 "2012-11-06T04:46:55Z")
How about a cooking analogy? ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 4:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1744 "2012-11-06T04:52:33Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > At Oh, and North Carolina? As I said elsewhere, the fact that anyone in the Obama campaign is going to North Carolina should raise some eyebrows. As has been pointed out a million times on this board, Obama doesn’t need North Carolina. Or Florida. Or Ohio. Or New Hampshire, for that matter. If Obama is either going to North Carolina or sending people there in his stead, it’s because they figure that they might-- just might-- need to win the state. So if the Republicans go to, say, Pennsylvania, that’s a sign of strength. If the Democrats go to North Carolina, that’s a sign of weakness. What you appear to be saying is that anything the Republicans do is a sign of strength; anything the Democrats do is a sign of weakness. I’m sensing a bit of partisan bias here. Just a hint of it. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 5:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1745 "2012-11-06T05:08:10Z")
Nate’s prediction has dropped to 92.0% for Obama, down from 92.2%. Just the break the Romney campaign needs! ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 5:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1746 "2012-11-06T05:09:11Z")
Breaking news: 100% of Americans are really happy it’ll be over soon. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 5:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1747 "2012-11-06T05:17:08Z")
> [@bengangmo](#): > > Just read Nate’s latest analysis on Ohio.. > > [In Ohio, Polls Show Benefit of Auto Rescue to Obama - The New York Times](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/05/in-ohio-polls-show-benefit-of-auto-rescue-to-obama/#more-37207) > > Intuitively it seems logical. > > For all the talk about this poll’s bias and that poll’s internals, and people not changing affiliation and all the rest of it - > > Choosing a president that saved your job and the local economy makes perfect sense to me - at least, swinging enough people from a slight republian advantage to small democrat one feels, well, logical and easier to understand than all that Adaher and OMG have been trying to argue. To give proper credit, Micah Cohen writes the state analysis on 538. ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 5:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1748 "2012-11-06T05:18:45Z")
> [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](#): > > Nate’s prediction has dropped to 92.0% for Obama, down from 92.2%. Just the break the Romney campaign needs! The landslide begins, with a single 0.2% pebble! ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 6:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1749 "2012-11-06T06:00:00Z")
> [@drewtwo99](#): > > The landslide begins, with a single 0.2% pebble! Right, for want of a nail, the quantum vacuum that is our universe collapsed instantaneously. Sometimes it works out like that. ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 6:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1750 "2012-11-06T06:03:47Z")
> [@drewtwo99](#): > > The landslide begins, with a single 0.2% pebble! Oh, no, maybe Omg is right! ---
**Author:** ![Raygun99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/6f9a4e/32.png) [@Raygun99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Raygun99)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 6:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1751 "2012-11-06T06:06:50Z")
In the end, the Unskewedpolls guy couldn’t keep his landslide game going, winding up with a 275-263 Romney prediction. I think he knew the jig was up. ---
**Author:** ![Enkel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/df705f/32.png) [@Enkel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enkel)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 6:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1752 "2012-11-06T06:30:31Z")
Looking at unskewedpolls site, this is my favorite line (at the bottom of the pages): > [@](#): > > **[Unskewedpolls.com](http://Unskewedpolls.com) Favorite sites**: American Thinker | [Freedomist.com](http://Freedomist.com) | [DickMorris.com](http://DickMorris.com) | Thomas Sowell | Walter E. Williams | Rush Limbaugh | Laura Ingraham If that list of sites doesn’t scream “Objective Thinker”, then I don’t know what does. ---
**Author:** ![gamerunknown](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/6bbea6/32.png) [@gamerunknown](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gamerunknown)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 12:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1753 "2012-11-06T12:09:07Z")
> [@drewtwo99](#): > > Why he has to win the election tomorrow instead of just doing it right now, well, that’s a stumper. It’s the Homebrew Putsch I guess. If he doesn’t win, America has secured freedom under the Willard Republic. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1754 "2012-11-06T14:03:44Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > The flexibility of your logic is impressive. Obama NOT going to a state he does not need and has a low chance of winning this time is a sign of his going to lose. First and foremost, Obama doesn’t need Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, Iowa or even Colorado to win. That’s a fact which has been stated here time and time again. Anyway, not that it matters, but that’s not my argument. My argument was that in 2008, Obama was campaigning in Republican favorable states. Today he’s campaigning in states he carried by a huge percentage in 2008 (or even states he doesn’t need to win). That says a lot, whether you want to believe it or not. ---
**Author:** ![MilTan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/71e660/32.png) [@MilTan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MilTan)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 2:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1755 "2012-11-06T14:13:01Z")
I’m not sure what you think that says, but I think it says that this election will be closer than 2008. Which _nobody_ denies. It does not imply that Obama is _losing_, though. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1756 "2012-11-06T14:14:03Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > That says a lot, whether you want to believe it or not. It says some pretty obvious and mundane things to me. I’m missing any big insights, though. Anyway, there’s a pretty major poll being taken today. Let’s see you unskew it. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 2:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1757 "2012-11-06T14:22:31Z")
It tells me that he’s leaving nothing to chance. I read last night that Obama is taking today off but that Romney will still be campaigning. What does that tell you? ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1758 "2012-11-06T14:52:38Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > It tells me that he’s leaving nothing to chance. > > I read last night that Obama is taking today off but that Romney will still be campaigning. What does that tell you? I guess some would say that it means Romney is confident he can flip California. \ ---
**Author:** ![LinusK](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/258eb7/32.png) [@LinusK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LinusK)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1759 "2012-11-06T15:38:21Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > It tells me that he’s leaving nothing to chance. > > I read last night that Obama is taking today off but that Romney will still be campaigning. What does that tell you? It means Obama’s already given up, cause he knows he’s gonna lose. Duh. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1760 "2012-11-06T15:38:40Z")
Cold but clear, sunny skies in NE Ohio today. Good news for a strong Democratic turnout here. My wife and I will vote this afternoon. Presented as a public service, “The Poor Voter on Election Day” by John Greenleaf Whittier: [Black and White Party Attire and Hosting Tips](http://poetry.about.com/library/weekly/blwhittierelection.htm) Also, as it happens, it’s John Philip Sousa’s birthday (1854). Here’s some classic American march music to get you in the proper Election Day spirit: [![](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/R6R7bCSUhjI/hqdefault.jpg "My Choice - John Philip Sousa: Washington Post March") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6R7bCSUhjI) [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/qgABUZ4i9co/maxresdefault.jpg "SOUSA Semper Fidelis - "The President's Own" US Marine Band") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgABUZ4i9co) [![]( " - YouTube") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P1vPmC_CQQY) ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1761 "2012-11-06T15:40:36Z")
Nate Silver says 90.9% chance of an Obama win. That’s called staking your career on the outcome. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=87) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=89)