# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 90
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1782 "2012-11-06T17:05:08Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > He shifted by 84 electoral votes in three days. The polls haven’t been THAT favorable! Its not hard for a small shift in a few states to add up to a big shift in electoral-votes. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1783 "2012-11-06T17:10:00Z")
I think people are forgetting how this works: if Obama loses it’s bad for Nate Silver because hardcore conservatives have decided it’s bad news for Nate Silver if Obama loses and have ginned up a story to fit their interpretation. In 2008 they decided ACORN was engaged in voter fraud, and ACORN doesn’t exist anymore. That’s how hardcore conservatives work, and it’s also true that most people do not really understand how polling and statistics work. That means they’re susceptible to people who seem really confident they know how the numbers work. If Obama loses there will be a lot of handwringing about the unreliability of polls because many polls will have been off (for conservatives this will mean liberal media bias), and polling organizations and Silver and other analysis will adjust their methodologies. So in four years they may have better models. But whether they do or not, conservatives will still say the media is biased and few people will understand how statistics work. In any event, I don’t think Silver has that much to worry about. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1784 "2012-11-06T17:59:26Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Breaking news: 100% of Americans are really happy it’ll be over soon. > [@Belowjob2.0](#): > > Dude, not 100%. TV stations in battleground states are making bank. But since there’s a LOT of pent-up demand for commercial air time (which was too scarce during the campaign), and is only now going to be available to holiday season advertisers, the TV stations aren’t going to have much to complain about. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1785 "2012-11-06T18:28:25Z")
> [@muldoonthief](#): > > You left out his [best one!](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6Dd0EaEbqg). Heh. I remember the Marine Band played that at Bill Clinton’s first Inauguration. In a national mock election, high schoolers go bigtime for Obama: [Obama Elected By American High Schoolers In Nationwide Mock Election | HuffPost Latest News](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/05/obama-elected-by-american_n_2079304.html?utm_hp_ref=education) ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1786 "2012-11-06T18:31:06Z")
> [@muldoonthief](#): > > You left out his [best one!](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6Dd0EaEbqg). > [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Heh. I remember the Marine Band played that at Bill Clinton’s first Inauguration. I noticed that. I wonder if anyone brought that up (who chose that selection, whether any consideration was given to its associations, and whether a statement was being attempted). ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1787 "2012-11-06T18:59:09Z")
FOX News’s front page: ZOMG, Black Panthers are invading polling places in Philadelphia! The Democrats are cheating? Shocked, shocked I am that FOX is breaking this story. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1788 "2012-11-06T20:10:58Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > FOX News’s front page: ZOMG, Black Panthers are invading polling places in Philadelphia! The Democrats are cheating? > > Shocked, shocked I am that FOX is breaking this story. Did you see the video? A courteous African-American gentleman _opened the door_ for some white ladies! OMG! ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1789 "2012-11-06T20:12:59Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > Did you see the video? A courteous African-American gentleman _opened the door_ for some white ladies! OMG! I can’t watch streaming video out here on the boat with my very limited internet… is that really what happened? ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1790 "2012-11-06T20:15:24Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > Did you see the video? A courteous African-American gentleman _opened the door_ for some white ladies! OMG! Wait, if it just takes being African-American and opening doors for white women… I just realized I may be married to a Black Panther. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1791 "2012-11-06T20:15:55Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > Did you see the video? A courteous African-American gentleman _opened the door_ for some white ladies! OMG! Well, he should have at least _tried_ to be less black looking! ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1792 "2012-11-06T20:22:54Z")
OMG…A Black Courtesy ---
**Author:** ![Vimp](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/vimp/32/4186_2.png) [@Vimp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Vimp)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1793 "2012-11-06T20:25:45Z")
My spouse is loudly predicting that Obama will win by 300 EVs or more. I think the count will be a lot closer (although still an Obama win). A steak dinner at Bradley Ogden is riding on the outcome. Is there any chance I will have to pay up on this one? ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1794 "2012-11-06T20:28:17Z")
It could happen if most of the swing states break Obama’s way, yes. He’d have to win Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Colorado along with the states that are more solidly behind him, but that’s certainly possible based on the polls. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Devil\_s\_Grandmother](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/74df32/32.png) [@The\_Devil\_s\_Grandmother](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Devil_s_Grandmother)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1795 "2012-11-06T20:33:49Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > Did you see the video? A courteous African-American gentleman _opened the door_ for some white ladies! OMG! What? AHHHHHHH! A black man gave me my \*I Voted \*sticker this morning! I’m still wearing it! I’M A PANTHER! ---
**Author:** ![Tatterdemalion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/43a26b/32.png) [@Tatterdemalion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tatterdemalion)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1796 "2012-11-06T20:42:32Z")
> [@The\_Devil\_s\_Grandmother](#): > > What? AHHHHHHH! A black man gave me my \*I Voted \*sticker this morning! I’m still wearing it! > > I’M A PANTHER! Not a cougar? ---
**Author:** ![Feyrat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/fbc32d/32.png) [@Feyrat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Feyrat)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1797 "2012-11-06T20:51:13Z")
> [@KatiRoo](#): > > My spouse is loudly predicting that Obama will win by 300 EVs or more. I think the count will be a lot closer (although still an Obama win). A steak dinner at Bradley Ogden is riding on the outcome. Is there any chance I will have to pay up on this one? Nate Silver is predicting an Obama win with 313. She may not be wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1798 "2012-11-06T21:00:53Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > Did you see the video? A courteous African-American gentleman _opened the door_ for some white ladies! OMG! Well, that’s cool because I held the door open for an elderly black man when I voted in South Carolina. We’re good, baby. We’re good. ---
**Author:** ![Skammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skammer/32/143_2.png) [@Skammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skammer)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1799 "2012-11-06T21:04:00Z")
> [@KatiRoo](#): > > My spouse is loudly predicting that Obama will win by 300 EVs or more. I think the count will be a lot closer (although still an Obama win). A steak dinner at Bradley Ogden is riding on the outcome. Is there any chance I will have to pay up on this one? I am confident Obama will not win by 300 EVs or more. He may very well win _with_ 300 EVs or more, though. So it depends on the exact wording of the bet. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1800 "2012-11-06T21:05:49Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > FOX News’s front page: ZOMG, Black Panthers are invading polling places in Philadelphia! The Democrats are cheating? > > Shocked, shocked I am that FOX is breaking this story. It could just frighten old white people into staying home…which would not be the desired effect. ---
**Author:** ![Skammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skammer/32/143_2.png) [@Skammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skammer)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1801 "2012-11-06T21:06:37Z")
I love that my wife’s cousin on Facebook has posted links to [dickmorris.com](http://dickmorris.com) and [breitbart.com](http://breitbart.com) to demonstrate how the GOP ‘tsunami’ of votes is surging to an easy Romney victory, 325-213. He’s so excited. Bless his heart. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=89) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=91)