# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 92
**Author:** ![CannyDan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cannydan/32/548_2.png) [@CannyDan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CannyDan)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1822 "2012-11-07T16:14:47Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > Apparently, it wasn’t too late to say he had lost. > > Thread over. I just had to check this thread to see who got in the decisive “no” and when. Winner (and a pony) goes to **Smapti** at 11:36 yesterday (my local Eastern time). ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1823 "2012-11-07T16:17:13Z")
Has Karl Rove taken his fingers out of his ears and quit muttering “I Can’t HEEEAR You!” yet? ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1824 "2012-11-07T16:31:39Z")
:):)🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1825 "2012-11-07T16:36:36Z")
I won’t believe it til Nate updates his projections. He still has Romney with almost a 1 in 10 chance of winning. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1826 "2012-11-07T16:41:15Z")
Golly it sure is quiet here today. This article at Redstate actually has me howling with laughter -[30 Reasons Republicans Lost the Election](http://www.redstate.com/mikehammond/2012/11/07/30-reasons-republicans-lost-the-election/). ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1827 "2012-11-07T17:21:01Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Golly it sure is quiet here today. > > This article at Redstate actually has me howling with laughter -[30 Reasons Republicans Lost the Election](http://www.redstate.com/mikehammond/2012/11/07/30-reasons-republicans-lost-the-election/). O. M. G. That is some utter lunacy. If the GOP had run the campaign they propose, Obama would have absolutely steamrolled his opponent. Who might have been… > [@RedState](#): > > MSNBC & co. engaged in a ruthless, withering campaign to destroy potential candidates like \*\*Bachmann \*\*and **Palin** , who could have cut into Obama’s demographic base. Oh please don’t throw us into that there briar patch. Bachmann barely carried her own little fiefdom of Batshit, MN this time around. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1828 "2012-11-07T17:22:29Z")
Interesting that 538 might have gotten Montana and North Dakota Senate races wrong. I guess we downgrade Nate to only probably a witch if that happens. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1829 "2012-11-07T17:30:29Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Interesting that 538 might have gotten Montana and North Dakota Senate races wrong. I guess we downgrade Nate to only probably a witch if that happens. And in the “wrong” direction, too. Once again, predicting a Republican win where the Democrat ekes it out. Damn liberal conspirator! But, seriously, he should be wrong on some of the races. If every single one of his predictions turns out right, then his model may be underestimating certainty. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1830 "2012-11-07T17:35:22Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > And in the “wrong” direction, too. Once again, predicting a Republican win where the Democrat ekes it out. Damn liberal conspirator! > > But, seriously, he should be wrong on some of the races. If every single one of his predictions turns out right, then his model may be underestimating certainty. Agreed on both counts. It also emphasizes how reliant the model is on having a critical mass of polls. I’ll bet you could draw a pretty clean correlation between the model’s error and the frequency of polling in a race. Indeed, both ND and MT had relatively few polls, consisting largely of GOP-leaning pollsters. ---
**Author:** ![Folacin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/folacin/32/3195_2.png) [@Folacin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Folacin)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1831 "2012-11-07T17:37:28Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Golly it sure is quiet here today. > > This article at Redstate actually has me howling with laughter -[30 Reasons Republicans Lost the Election](http://www.redstate.com/mikehammond/2012/11/07/30-reasons-republicans-lost-the-election/). The comments actually had some fairly decent comments/takedowns of the list and the R battle plan in general. On the other hand, there are some like this: > [@](#): > > This reflex to blame Republicans after such massive economic suffering for the last four years under Obama is akin to blaming Jets losses on the the failure of their opponents to explain why they won. An electorate that doesn’t reject Obama out of hand based on the evidence and their own experience bespeaks of a fundamental flaw in those voters, not the GOP. I thought it was the liberals who didn’t think that people could make the proper decisions for themselves. ---
**Author:** ![Skammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skammer/32/143_2.png) [@Skammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skammer)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1832 "2012-11-07T17:47:12Z")
Some of the comments under that article show a glimmer of self-awareness: > [@](#): > > May I suggest #31- Reliance on polling firms that tell us what we want to hear as opposed to the truth. Really. We pay these motherf$(\*%s a lot of money,and this is the performance they deliver. Effing amazing! > {list of states Rasmussen got wrong} > In other words, in all the races that mattered, Rasmussen got it egregiously wrong. They didn’t call a single battleground state right except for North Carolina, and even there it appears that they overestimated the margin of Romney’s win. > [@](#): > > I can accept that my news is not really “news” like news in Cronkite’s day, but a conservative take on the news. But it’s unacceptable that Rasmussen appears to have distinguished themselves from everyone else in their quest to shade the numbers to appease us, the base. I didn’t even look at other polls, to tell the truth, trusting that their methodology was more sound because it jived with what I was hearing on Fox and with people I talked to. It pains me to say this, but next time I want a dose of hard truth, I’m looking to Nate Silver, even if I don’t like the results. > [@](#): > > We ignored a bunch of other shit too. I’m done… but listening to Dick Morris and Dean Chamberlain kinda fucked us. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1833 "2012-11-07T18:33:19Z")
Well, that’s not really Rasmussen’s function. They don’t need to be any good at actually crunching numbers for the same reason a phone-sex worker doesn’t need to actually be any good in bed. ---
**Author:** ![eenerms](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/cdc98d/32.png) [@eenerms](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eenerms)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1834 "2012-11-07T18:37:55Z")
MO, the GOP ran the wrong candidate, Mitt was not will never be the right person for Pres. I was not a bit surprised when he lost. My opinion only. ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1835 "2012-11-07T18:40:46Z")
Where the fuck is adaher and klaatu? ---
**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1836 "2012-11-07T18:49:28Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Golly it sure is quiet here today. > > This article at Redstate actually has me howling with laughter -[30 Reasons Republicans Lost the Election](http://www.redstate.com/mikehammond/2012/11/07/30-reasons-republicans-lost-the-election/). > [@Redstate.com](#): > > 1. They Allowed Democrats To Pick Their Nominee For Them. > A succession of potential Republican nominees -– Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich –- were bright, attractive, and have compelling narratives. No need to read further, if the rest is as barking-mad delusional as the above. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1837 "2012-11-07T18:49:28Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Agreed on both counts. It also emphasizes how reliant the model is on having a critical mass of polls. I’ll bet you could draw a pretty clean correlation between the model’s error and the frequency of polling in a race. Indeed, both ND and MT had relatively few polls, consisting largely of GOP-leaning pollsters. ``` In Montana the polls showed Tester to be ahead though. He lead in four of the last five polls and tied in the other going back to Oct 10. Relatively infrequent polls but a fairly clear pattern over a month.That's why I thought it was such an interesting test case: the polls and 538 came to different conclusions based on the state fundamentals adjustment that Nate made. It turns out he was wrong and a straightforward poll average would have got it right. Not a huge deal and I am sure he will learn from it and tweak his model if required. And I expect a really detailed post soon where he looks at how his presidential model performed, which should be worth reading. ``` ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1838 "2012-11-07T18:53:07Z")
> [@drewtwo99](#): > > Where the fuck is adaher and klaatu? Still gathering up all the skull fragments and brain tissue after the explosion. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1839 "2012-11-07T18:56:41Z")
> [@El\_Kabong](#): > > No need to read further, if the rest is as barking-mad delusional as the above. Oh, you haven’t really gotten to the good parts: [QUOTE=Transmission From RedState Alternate Universe] 13. **To the Contrary, Romney Jumped To Condemn Candidates Like Todd Akin And Richard Mourdock, Because The Media Ordered Him To Do So.** He presumably thought that by denouncing Republican Senate candidates and throwing away the Senate, he could save himself. But, to the contrary, the Dems just proceeded to use the tiny, but universally condemned slips to label the Republican Party in general. [/QUOTE] ---
**Author:** ![Terraplane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/74df32/32.png) [@Terraplane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terraplane)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1840 "2012-11-07T19:11:58Z")
It’s strange how pulling [shit](http://www.businessinsider.com/unskewed-pollster-dean-chambers-nate-silver-election-dick-morris-michael-barone-2012-11) out of your ass yields nothing but more shit, isn’t it? Today is the best day. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/1841 "2012-11-07T19:12:32Z")
They actually got one kinda right: \*\* 7. And, Yes, With ObamaCare The Most Potent Weapon In The Republicans’ Quiver, It Was A Mistake To Nominate The Guy Who Invented It.\*\* Or, the less loony way to phrase it: you shot yourselves in the foot, and took Obamacare off the election debate table. ETA: Of course, the guys who _didn’t_ invent Obamacare were utterly un-electable. So: damned if you do, damned if you don’t. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=91) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=93)