# Is it "too early to tell" whether South Africa will turn out like Zimbabwe? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 20, 2012, 5:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495 "2012-05-20T05:54:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2012, 5:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/1 "2012-05-20T05:54:34Z")
Meant to get to this a month ago, it slipped my mind . . . In [this thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=15003543) on a “one-state solution” for Israel/Palestine, **brazil84** posted [the following:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=15003543&highlight=zimbabwe#post15003543) > [@](#): > > Besides which, it’s too early to tell if South Africa will end up like Zimbabwe. White rule in South Africa ended less than 20 years ago. > > Things didn’t start getting really ugly for whites in Zimbabwe until around 2000 – about 20 years after white rule ended. The notion SA might follow Zimbabwe’s path (dispossession and suppression of the white minority) seems preposterous to me based on what I know of SA today – but that’s all from Western media (and Dope posts), of course. The ancillary coverage during the World Cup portrayed what seemed to be a pretty harmonious society, all things considered. But politics are tempestuous and unpredictable, especially in post-colonial Africa. Are there any significant political forces in SA today that might seriously push for such a thing? I understand “One Settler, One Bullet” is a phrase from Apartheid-era activism that has not quite entirely passed out of usage. Come to think of it, why **have** Rhodesia/Zimbabwe and SA turned out so differently so far? They both started in more or less the same place: A former British colony in Africa, dominated post-independence/decolonization by a white minority too numerous to be marginal which marginalized political power; and both eventually abolished that strange pseudocolonial system. And now Zim is a corrupt dictatorship and economic basket case, and SA is real democracy with a thriving (by African standards) economy. What made for the difference? ---
**Author:** ![Condescending\_Robot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a183cd/32.png) [@Condescending\_Robot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Condescending_Robot)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2012, 6:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/2 "2012-05-20T06:06:56Z")
Power in Zimbabwe changed hands by a long, complicated civil war with at least three sides (whites, Mugabe, and Nkomo) and lots of destabilizing foreign intervention. Zimbabwe’s economy was never that great to begin with. Robert Mugabe is insane. South Africa, while hardly the perfect democracy you suggest, is indeed a much better place than Zimbabwe because it did not suffer those factors–against all odds and predictions, the move away from apartheid was peaceful with an emphasis on “reconciliation”, it has a lot of natural resources and has had a diversified economy ever since the move away from gold mining, and, while Jacob Zuma is a douchebag, he is not the sole locus of political power in the country like Mugabe is, and plenty of other political figures and mundane bureaucrats are able to exert a stabilizing influence. There are factions within the ANC that would like to see South Africa turn into a Zimbabwe-like racial dictatorship, but they are not the majority and are far more likely than not to see their goals thwarted. ---
**Author:** ![mister\_nyx](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/df705f/32.png) [@mister\_nyx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mister_nyx)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2012, 6:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/3 "2012-05-20T06:12:15Z")
I had to consult Wikipedia for the exact dates; Nelson Mandela was released in 1990 but the first elections were not held until 1994. The Apartheid system was being dismantled 22 years ago but a real new free society wasn’t being built until 18 years ago. So we’re definitely talking around 20 years ago, if a couple years shy by some measures. Anyway, it’s a moronic comparison, obviously. A country – one with serious social and economic problems, admittedly – but a country with a functional democracy and real institutions is obviously not comparable to a place like Zimbabwe (even though Zimbabwe was, of course, successful for a while). Zimbabwe was a dictatorship, one that remained benevolent as long as its dictator’s mind remained intact and fell apart as soon as it wasn’t. Honestly, it’s such a facially stupid comparison that it almost seems embarrassing to bother arguing it. Zimbabwe and South Africa are not really comparable, and the quote you shared gives no real reason to draw a comparison. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2012, 6:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/4 "2012-05-20T06:20:04Z")
Is it relevant that SA was a whole lot more industrialized, while Zim was an remains an agrarian country? ---
**Author:** ![Grumman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/43a26b/32.png) [@Grumman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grumman)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2012, 6:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/5 "2012-05-20T06:28:29Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > The notion SA might follow Zimbabwe’s path (dispossession and suppression of the white minority) seems preposterous to me based on what I know of SA today – but that’s all from Western media (and Dope posts), of course. The ancillary coverage during the World Cup portrayed what seemed to be a pretty harmonious society, all things considered. By “all things considered”, do you mean “_apart_ from all the rapes, assaults and murders”? ---
**Author:** ![mister\_nyx](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/df705f/32.png) [@mister\_nyx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mister_nyx)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2012, 6:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/6 "2012-05-20T06:32:25Z")
> [@Grumman](#): > > By “all things considered”, do you mean “_apart_ from all the rapes, assaults and murders”? I dunno. High crime rates (which of course SA has had for years) seem like a fundamentally different thing than what happened in Zimbabwe. Of course SA is not Belgium, but do you really believe it’s in a similar circumstance to that of Zimbabwe? ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2012, 8:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/7 "2012-05-20T08:29:53Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > **Is it “too early to tell” whether South Africa will turn out like Zimbabwe?** Yes - in fact, it will _always_ be “too early to tell”, since it _could_ go the way of Zimbabwe ten years from now, or fifty, or a hundred… ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Excellent](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f19dbf/32.png) [@Mr.Excellent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Excellent)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2012, 8:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/8 "2012-05-20T08:46:17Z")
One factor: Nelson Mandela was very serious about SA becoming a democracy. Mugabe wasn’t. Individuals matter. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2012, 10:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/9 "2012-05-20T10:01:11Z")
Not going to happen - mostly because South Africa is _not_ Zimbabwe. The demographics are vastly different (20% non-Black African vs 1.5% is a hell of a difference. So is 50 million people vs 10. So is everything geographic about environmentally diverse SA vs landlocked, drought-prone Zim.) The 18 years thing is kind of a red herring, anyway - South Africa hasn’t really been a colony, like Zimbabwe was before UDI, since 1910. 1961 if you want to be a pedant, but 1910 is more relevant. It wasn’t a full democracy, but that really isn’t pertinent, IMO. I must admit, I do find the whole issue of South Africa’s future a useful shibboleth on this board… ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2012, 10:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/10 "2012-05-20T10:11:31Z")
> [@Grumman](#): > > By “all things considered”, do you mean “_apart_ from all the rapes, assaults and murders”? “All things considered - for a country that managed to not break out into full-on civil war despite generations of racial oppression” would be my interpretation, actually. Anyway, South Africa’s crime stats are constantly getting better, year-by-year. Not great, especially on the rape front, but better than the last decades. ---
**Author:** ![njtt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/ecd19e/32.png) [@njtt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/njtt)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2012, 10:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/11 "2012-05-20T10:20:34Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > Yes - in fact, it will _always_ be “too early to tell”, since it _could_ go the way of Zimbabwe ten years from now, or fifty, or a hundred… Indeed, and, no doubt, one day things in Zimbabwe will improve. Things change, and different countries are subject to different historical contingencies. There is no law of history that says that former colonies, or states formerly organized on racist principles, must fail within about 20 years of gaining independence or establishing equal civil rights. To suggest otherwise is itself based on nothing but racism. ---
**Author:** ![Donnerwetter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b2d939/32.png) [@Donnerwetter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Donnerwetter)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2012, 10:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/12 "2012-05-20T10:42:13Z")
A considerable amount of the white population has left South Africa since the end of apartheid. And then there is the issue of farm attacks which has to be one of the most underreported news stories: > **[South African farm attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_African_farm_attacks)** > > South African farm attacks (Afrikaans: plaasaanvalle) are violent crimes, including murder, assault and robbery, that take place on farms in South Africa. The attacks target farmers, who are usually white, and farm workers, who are usually black. Black farmers have also been victims of violent attacks. The term has no formal legal definition, but such attacks have been the subject of discussion by media and public figures in South Africa and abroad. > Unsubstantiated claims that such attacks on ... > **[Between staying and going](https://www.economist.com/briefing/2008/09/25/between-staying-and-going)** > > Violent crime and political turmoil are adding to South Africa’s brain drain ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2012, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/13 "2012-05-20T13:34:41Z")
> [@Mr.Excellent](#): > > One factor: Nelson Mandela was very serious about SA becoming a democracy. Mugabe wasn’t. Individuals matter. This. The United States COULD have turned out a lot worse if George Washington had been a power-hungry douchebag. As it turns out, for all his faults, Washington was an utterly dedicated, truly honest devotee of democracy. So it didn’t turn out badly. Zimbabwe had a douchebag at the helm. Botswana, right next door, had a stateman at its helm when it gained independence, and so it turned out okay. Individuals can and do change the course of history; the fate of a country is not an unstoppable force of nature. ---
**Author:** ![Condescending\_Robot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a183cd/32.png) [@Condescending\_Robot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Condescending_Robot)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2012, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/14 "2012-05-20T13:36:23Z")
Yes, there’s no doubt that South Africa has a terrible violent crime problem, and SOME factions within the government look the other way on black-on-white crime, but the difference in degree between that and Zimbabwe is so immense that it would be willfully deceitful to pretend there’s an equivalency. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Excellent](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f19dbf/32.png) [@Mr.Excellent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Excellent)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2012, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/15 "2012-05-20T14:29:44Z")
> [@Condescending\_Robot](#): > > Yes, there’s no doubt that South Africa has a terrible violent crime problem, and SOME factions within the government look the other way on black-on-white crime, but the difference in degree between that and Zimbabwe is so immense that it would be willfully deceitful to pretend there’s an equivalency. The great difference being that a South African can go into the town square, proclaim all these problems openly, blame them on Jacob Zuma - and be perfectly fine thereafter. Such an action in Zim is much, much less healthy. ---
**Author:** ![Farmer\_Jane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/bbe5ce/32.png) [@Farmer\_Jane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Farmer_Jane)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2012, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/16 "2012-05-20T14:40:59Z")
For anyone who cares, this was discussed [. I’m tempted to participate, but I still remember how mad **MrDibble** was. (: In fact, OP, you even asked the [URL=“[http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=13785181&postcount=54](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=13785181&postcount=54)”]very same question]([Will South Africa go the way of Zimbabwe? - Great Debates - Straight Dope Message Board](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=607787)): [A better question would be: Why didn’t Zimbabwe go the way of South Africa? They started out in almost exactly the same place, after they abolished their white-only governments. [/QUOTE] "] > [@Will South Africa go the way of Zimbabwe?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/54): > > A better question would be: Why didn’t Zimbabwe go the way of South Africa? They started out in almost exactly the same place, after they abolished their white-only governments. ]([QUOTE=BrainGlutton;13785181) I will say (again) that South Africa isn’t as rosy as the OP paints it to be, but South Africa and Zimbabwe are two very different states with two very different histories. Do you also make threads asking why Italy and Poland are so different? ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2012, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/17 "2012-05-20T14:59:26Z")
> [@Donnerwetter](#): > > A considerable amount of the white population has left South Africa since the end of apartheid. And then there is the issue of farm attacks which has to be one of the most underreported news stories: > > [South African farm attacks - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_African_farm_attacks) > [Between staying and going](http://www.economist.com/node/12295535?story_id=12295535) Jeepers, [has it been a year already](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=607787&highlight=south+africa+farm+attacks&page=3)? Time for the annual “bullshit about farm attacks” run, I see. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2012, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/18 "2012-05-20T15:01:38Z")
> [@Farmer\_Jane](#): > > I’m tempted to participate, but I still remember how mad **MrDibble** was. (: :rolleyes:Not because you got your arse handed to you, or anything… ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2012, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/19 "2012-05-20T15:12:20Z")
I think [this post](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=13859113&postcount=255) from that previous thread covers my points again nicely: > [@](#): > > ``` > We're a much more industrialized nation, less agriculture-dependent > We're a (much) more racially mixed nation. Even our White folks are a pretty diverse bunch (not USA-diverse, but better than Zim). > We didn't have the drastic skills drain Zimbabwe seems to have experienced. We've had White Flight ("The Chicken Run", we call it), but Whites remain ~9% of the population. That means a larger skill base is retained for transfer to other groups. > We're a much wealthier nation > We're less susceptible to nationwide drought effect > We have a longer tradition of self-rule (even if highly flawed) > We didn't have an out-and-out civil war within our borders like Zimbabwe did. Not saying our struggle wasn't as violent, but it was different in tone and locale. And it mostly stopped after White rule ended (Kwazulu-Natal political violence being a notable exception). The same can not be said for Zimbabwe. They went from one bloody civil war to another right away. > We're ruled by an internally-not-all-that-stable coalition, which ameliorates their excesses > The ANC has always had some external opposition, (even ones with the right "struggle credentials", like the PAC), not to mention the IFP & the DA. ZANU-PF had been pretty much it from 1987 until 1999. So in reality, Zimbabwe only had 13 years of one-party rule to go from OK to suck. > We didn't have Mugabe. > > ``` ---
**Author:** ![Farmer\_Jane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/bbe5ce/32.png) [@Farmer\_Jane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Farmer_Jane)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2012, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/20 "2012-05-20T15:19:41Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > :rolleyes:Not because you got your arse handed to you, or anything… PUH LEEZE. (: We agreed about some major points and I feel you were sensitive to my criticism of your home country. But to answer the OP, let’s just gather 'round and say it loud: NO. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495.md?page=2)