# Is it "too early to tell" whether South Africa will turn out like Zimbabwe? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 20, 2012, 5:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495 "2012-05-20T05:54:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2012, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/21 "2012-05-20T15:36:26Z")
> [@Farmer\_Jane](#): > > We agreed about some major points I can’t think of a single major point we agreed on. > [@](#): > > and I feel you were sensitive to my criticism of your home country. No, I was “sensitive” to your spreading of factual inaccuracies. > [@](#): > > But to answer the OP, let’s just gather 'round and say it loud: > > NO. True enough. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2012, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/22 "2012-05-20T20:24:20Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > This. > > The United States COULD have turned out a lot worse if George Washington had been a power-hungry douchebag. As it turns out, for all his faults, Washington was an utterly dedicated, truly honest devotee of democracy. So it didn’t turn out badly. Well, of republicanism – he didn’t like the word “democracy” or self-ID’d “democrats.” But the point remains, he could have made himself king, but didn’t. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2012, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/23 "2012-05-20T20:25:52Z")
> [@Farmer\_Jane](#): > > I will say (again) that South Africa isn’t as rosy as the OP paints it to be, but South Africa and Zimbabwe are two very different states with two very different histories. Do you also make threads asking why Italy and Poland are so different? No, but it would not be irrelevant to ask why Poland and Belarus are so different. ---
**Author:** ![Farmer\_Jane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/bbe5ce/32.png) [@Farmer\_Jane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Farmer_Jane)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2012, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/24 "2012-05-20T21:06:35Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > No, I was “sensitive” to your spreading of factual inaccuracies. Yeah, all those citations were a real bummer! :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Farmer\_Jane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/bbe5ce/32.png) [@Farmer\_Jane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Farmer_Jane)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2012, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/25 "2012-05-20T21:10:57Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > No, but it would not be irrelevant to ask why Poland and Belarus are so different. If you want to play political analogies here, I’d say the notion _Poland is to Belarus as Zimbabwe is to South Africa_ is retarded with a capital stupid. Just like with your Libya/Egypt/ME threads, you’re going to have to realize that not all (insert religious or geographical category here) are the same. South Africa may be corrupt and sometimes weak, but it’s not Zimbabwe. (And who calls Zimbabwe “Rhodesia” anymore?) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2012, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/26 "2012-05-20T21:29:23Z")
> [@Farmer\_Jane](#): > > (And who calls Zimbabwe “Rhodesia” anymore?) A whole lot of expats, IME. ---
**Author:** ![Rodgers01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/b19c9b/32.png) [@Rodgers01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rodgers01)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2012, 5:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/27 "2012-05-21T05:17:46Z")
Asking whether SA will fall apart as spectacularly as Zimbabwe might distract from the more relevant question of just how stable, prosperous, democratic, and safe SA will remain in the coming decades. That’s a legitimate question, no? Full democracy is scarcely a generation old. Every time I check out the headlines from the country there’s something worrisome: the startling rise (and, happily, apparent fall) of Julius Malema, the AIDS epidemic, unemployment, attacks on freedom of the press, rolling blackouts… It’s not crazy to wonder how well the country can hold together (while certainly hoping that it does). ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2012, 5:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/28 "2012-05-21T05:43:28Z")
> [@Rodgers01](#): > > Asking whether SA will fall apart as spectacularly as Zimbabwe might distract from the more relevant question of just how stable, prosperous, democratic, and safe SA will remain in the coming decades. > > That’s a legitimate question, no? Full democracy is scarcely a generation old. Every time I check out the headlines from the country there’s something worrisome: the startling rise (and, happily, apparent fall) of Julius Malema, the AIDS epidemic, unemployment, attacks on freedom of the press, rolling blackouts… It’s not crazy to wonder how well the country can hold together (while certainly hoping that it does). I figure any new democracy will have growing pains, just from trying to do things a whole new way that’s outside everyone’s experience to date, and a way much more complicated and challenging than any other. America had them too. So did all the post-Communist states of eastern Europe. We can’t reasonably expect near-term stability and harmony in the countries whose dictatorships were overthrown in the Arab Spring – look at [what Libya’s going through right now](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=652384) – but the revolutions were still worth having. ---
**Author:** ![Rhythmdvl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/85f322/32.png) [@Rhythmdvl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rhythmdvl)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2012, 6:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/29 "2012-05-21T06:15:55Z")
Three words: Madam and Eve. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2012, 7:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/30 "2012-05-21T07:45:26Z")
> [@Farmer\_Jane](#): > > Yeah, all those citations were a real bummer! :rolleyes: You mean all those ones I addressed in that thread, and showed to be out of touch with the reality of the country? _Those_ citations? ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2012, 11:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/31 "2012-05-21T11:16:45Z")
MrDibble and Farmer Jane, take your bickering over a previous thread to e-mail, PM, or The BBQ Pit but stop rehashing it here. [/Moderating] ---
**Author:** ![orcenio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/orcenio/32/1036_2.png) [@orcenio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/orcenio)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2012, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/32 "2012-05-21T13:06:34Z")
> [@Rodgers01](#): > > Asking whether SA will fall apart as spectacularly as Zimbabwe might distract from the more relevant question of just how stable, prosperous, democratic, and safe SA will remain in the coming decades. > > That’s a legitimate question, no? Full democracy is scarcely a generation old. Every time I check out the headlines from the country there’s something worrisome: the startling rise (and, happily, apparent fall) of Julius Malema, the AIDS epidemic, unemployment, attacks on freedom of the press, rolling blackouts… It’s not crazy to wonder how well the country can hold together (while certainly hoping that it does). I find a person’s reasoning crazy only if after they rest from complaining about Malema/Zuma, AIDS, free press, Unemployment, etc they start praising South Africa, Apartheid-era. “OMG!!! Things are apocalyptic!!!..since the ANC took over. Before that, things were just hunky-dory. Yep, no problems with any of those aforementioned issues…” South Africa has always had these serious problems and the ANC can be judged for tackling them ineptly, but at least they are acknowledging/addressing them; they are also fully accountable any failures/stumbles they make. This alone is **head and shoulders above all other previous governments**. Some of which actively fostered a lot of the social and economic problems that South Africa must deal with to this day. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2012, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/33 "2012-05-21T18:46:18Z")
> [@tomndebb](#): > > MrDibble and Farmer Jane, take your bickering over a previous thread to e-mail, PM, or The BBQ Pit but stop rehashing it here. > > [/Moderating] Are you also saying I shouldn’t reference posts made in that thread on this _exact_ same topic? Or is that still OK? Because I basically said everything I could want to say before. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2012, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/34 "2012-05-22T00:56:51Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > Are you also saying I shouldn’t reference posts made in that thread on this _exact_ same topic? Or is that still OK? Because I basically said everything I could want to say before. I am saying that the two of you will quit bickering and making this personal. If there is a point of fact or logic that has appeared in earlier threads that applies equally well to this thread, feel free to post it. Do not, however, (either of you), continue with comments noting that you have already made or refuted similar points in earlier threads, particularly by way of taking a shot at the other poster. [/Moderating] ---
**Author:** ![RadicalPi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/radicalpi/32/9806_2.png) [@RadicalPi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RadicalPi)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2012, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/35 "2012-05-22T03:11:02Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > I figure any new democracy will have growing pains, just from trying to do things a whole new way that’s outside everyone’s experience to date, and a way much more complicated and challenging than any other. America had them too. So did all the post-Communist states of eastern Europe. We can’t reasonably expect near-term stability and harmony in the countries whose dictatorships were overthrown in the Arab Spring – look at [what Libya’s going through right now](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=652384) – but the revolutions were still worth having. And so did France. It took almost _a hundred years_ for things to calm down after the Revolution. (TLDR: QFT.) ---
**Author:** ![DangleYourModifier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c57346/32.png) [@DangleYourModifier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DangleYourModifier)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2012, 4:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/36 "2012-05-22T04:03:17Z")
I am a white South African male in my forties and have lived in both the “old” and the “new” South Africa and I personally get very annoyed with people who have idoitic opinions about SA going the way of Zimbabwe. I have travelled and worked extensively in Africa and Europe and there is no other country I would rather be in than SA, This is not out of some misplaced sense of patriotism but simply a realisation that this country has so many opportunities for both Black and White (and other) people. I am very happy here and have no intention of moving in the near future nor expect to have any reason to do so. I see white people around me all the time so I doubt they have ALL moved out of the country. Comparing SA with Zimbabwe is like asking whether Italy will go the way of Zimbabwe. The chances are about the same, I think. Italy has always had a fairly corrupt system and is practically bankrupt. It is certainly possible, in the sense that anything is possible, but it is unlikely. I’m not going to rehash all the arguments again but will just say that we have a very robust economy and politial system in place right now and only a few idiots on the fringes have any fears that we will end up like Zim. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2012, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/37 "2012-05-22T04:13:05Z")
> [@DangleYourModifier](#): > > I’m not going to rehash all the arguments again but will just say that we have a very robust economy and politial system in place right now and only a few idiots on the fringes have any fears that we will end up like Zim. There is a certain kind of conservative – over **here,** I mean – who actually seems to **regret** the fall of Apartheid. I recall reading at least one article on SA in Pat Buchanan’s magazine [_The American Conservative_](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_American_Conservative) that actually seemed to be trying to make a case that ending Apartheid was a bad idea in hindsight. It even quoted a couple of black SAs who missed the old days of law and order (it’s never all that hard to find some people who miss the old days, whatever they were like; it would not have been all that hard, back in the day, to find a few American ex-slaves who missed slavery, when they never had to think about what to do next and there was always somebody around who had to feed them). ---
**Author:** ![DangleYourModifier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c57346/32.png) [@DangleYourModifier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DangleYourModifier)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2012, 6:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/38 "2012-05-22T06:51:28Z")
There will always be some nitwits who yearn for the “good old days”. There are certainly a lot here as well. The reality is though, I have not seen or met any white people who’s standard of living has declined dramatically but I have met many black people who’s standards have increased dramatically. This is a good thing. Of course there are some subjective differences between the old regime and the new. The most noticeable is the crime. But as has been mentioned that is steadily improving and it is getting better all the time. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2012, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/39 "2012-05-22T14:35:35Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > There is a certain kind of conservative – over **here,** I mean – who actually seems to **regret** the fall of Apartheid. This is partly because they (conservatives, I mean - Reagan etc.) spent so much effort in actively propping it up. ---
**Author:** ![orcenio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/orcenio/32/1036_2.png) [@orcenio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/orcenio)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2012, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495/40 "2012-05-22T20:16:43Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > It even quoted a couple of black SAs who missed the old days of law and order (it’s never all that hard to find some people who miss the old days, whatever they were like; it would not have been all that hard, back in the day, to find a few American ex-slaves who missed slavery, when they never had to think about what to do next and there was always somebody around who had to feed them). Common sense tells me it’d be quite dishonest to present “Apartheid nostalgia” as anything other then fringe within the black South African community. A publication which doesn’t make this VERY CLEAR when reporting on a topic seems highly untrustworthy (and probably fringe itself). [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-tell-whether-south-africa-will-turn-out-like-zimbabwe/622495.md?page=3)