# Is it too late for an October surprise? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 26, 2004, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-late-for-an-october-surprise/271314 "2004-10-26T22:03:08Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2004, 4:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-late-for-an-october-surprise/271314/21 "2004-10-27T04:42:19Z")
Ha, fooled Bush, I’ve already voted! 😃 As for the “October Surprise” – never underestimate the dark powers of Karl Rove… ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2004, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-late-for-an-october-surprise/271314/22 "2004-10-27T13:35:08Z")
> [@Sam Stone](#): > > No, it’s not too late for an ‘October Surprise’. Historically, these ‘late hits’ come the weekend before the election - early enough that the word gets out about them, late enough that the campaign doesn’t have time to respond. > > That’s what CBS planned to do with ‘explosives’ story. They were going to run it on Oct. 31, but got upstaged by the NYT. **Sam** , you loveable nut! You’d make a great left-wing conspiracy theorist, except for your political views and all. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2004, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-late-for-an-october-surprise/271314/23 "2004-10-27T14:08:10Z")
Actually, the producer of “60 Minutes” is the source for the fact that CBS was going to run the story on Oct. 31. But you’re right - it’s crazy to believe anything CBS says. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2004, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-late-for-an-october-surprise/271314/24 "2004-10-27T21:56:02Z")
Yassar Arafat might generate an October surprise. If he [dies tonight](http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=6633354), the west bank and Gaza could devolve into bloody chaos by the weekend. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2004, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-late-for-an-october-surprise/271314/25 "2004-10-27T22:04:22Z")
> [@Squink](#): > > Yassar Arafat might generate an October surprise. If he [dies tonight](http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=6633354), the west bank and Gaza could devolve into bloody chaos by the weekend. We need to get a death-pool going. Who goes first – Arafat, Rehnquist, Castro, or John Paul II? ---
**Author:** ![Brutus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/91b2a8/32.png) [@Brutus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Brutus)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2004, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-late-for-an-october-surprise/271314/26 "2004-10-27T22:04:39Z")
> [@rjung](#): > > Ha, fooled Bush, I’ve already voted! What sort of voting equipment? You may have just voted for Bush! 😉 ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2004, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-late-for-an-october-surprise/271314/27 "2004-10-27T22:13:52Z")
> [@Squink](#): > > Yassar Arafat might generate an October surprise. If he dies tonight, the west bank and Gaza could devolve into bloody chaos by the weekend. Damn the man!! Its all another frigging Democrat conspiricy to steal the election I say! He’s going to die just to get Bush out of office! I’m simply outraged! Besides that, can you imagine what he’ll look like dead?!? He looks like death warmed over and has for years and years. Hope they at least shave and bathe the man… > [@Brutus](#): > > What sort of voting equipment? You may have just voted for Bush! Oh…thats just clasic! ROFLMAO!! 😃 -XT ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2004, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-late-for-an-october-surprise/271314/28 "2004-10-27T22:16:26Z")
**Sam Stone:** \*Actually, the producer of “60 Minutes” is the source for the fact that CBS was going to run the story on Oct. 31. \* **Sam** , do you have a cite for this? I looked through the other thread but didn’t see a reference. ---
**Author:** ![Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e36b37/32.png) [@Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airman_Doors_USAF)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2004, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-late-for-an-october-surprise/271314/29 "2004-10-28T00:31:55Z")
> [@Brutus](#): > > What sort of voting equipment? You may have just voted for Bush! 😉 [How apropos.](http://www.boomchicago.nl/Section/Videos/BoomChicagoVotingMachine) Not that I believe it will go down like that, but it’s still funny. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2004, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-late-for-an-october-surprise/271314/30 "2004-10-28T01:38:53Z")
Well, when I was a kid I use to have a recurring nightmare of a huge war against the United States. It was tied to a harvest moon, which was eclipsed by clouds shaped like Egyptian symbols. Years later I realized the dream was a rehash of Passover stories. Cops always tell me they have more problems with drunks during a full moon. To this day I wonder what dumbass is going to spill out on the streets when I see a one (full moon). What got me thinking about this was a Drudge report about a tape ABC is supposedly holding that has a terrorist warning on it. The person has an American accent so I’m expecting something Timothy McVeigh stupid close to the election. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2004, 1:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-late-for-an-october-surprise/271314/31 "2004-10-28T01:42:46Z")
**Kimstu:** Sure. [Here you go.](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A3493-2004Oct27.html) ---
**Author:** ![JohnBckWLD](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d6d6ee/32.png) [@JohnBckWLD](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnBckWLD)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2004, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-late-for-an-october-surprise/271314/32 "2004-10-28T03:16:20Z")
[Or WMD Reports Here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=283372) ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_One](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/45deac/32.png) [@Evil\_One](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_One)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2004, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-late-for-an-october-surprise/271314/33 "2004-10-28T13:08:21Z")
> [@rjung](#): > > As for the “October Surprise” – never underestimate the dark powers of Karl Rove… Is that sarcasm? ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_One](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/45deac/32.png) [@Evil\_One](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_One)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2004, 1:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-late-for-an-october-surprise/271314/34 "2004-10-28T13:09:43Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > We need to get a death-pool going. Who goes first – Arafat, Rehnquist, Castro, or John Paul II? Arafat. ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2004, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-late-for-an-october-surprise/271314/35 "2004-10-28T19:01:57Z")
> [@Evil One](#): > > Is that sarcasm? No, merely a declaration based on [Karl’s past history.](http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200411/green) ---
**Author:** ![Jpeg\_Jones](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/4bbf92/32.png) [@Jpeg\_Jones](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jpeg_Jones)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2004, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-late-for-an-october-surprise/271314/36 "2004-10-28T21:12:51Z")
[Household Survey Sees 100,000 Iraqi Deaths](http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=540&e=6&u=/ap/20041028/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_death_toll_5) > [@](#): > > The survey indicated violence accounted for most of the extra deaths seen since the invasion, and airstrikes from coalition forces caused most of the violent deaths, the researchers wrote in the British-based journal. > > “Most individuals reportedly killed by coalition forces were women and children,” they said. ---
**Author:** ![C\_K\_Dexter\_Haven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/b2d939/32.png) [@C\_K\_Dexter\_Haven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/C_K_Dexter_Haven)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2004, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-late-for-an-october-surprise/271314/37 "2004-10-28T22:26:03Z")
> [@](#): > > Cops always tell me they have more problems with drunks during a full moon. See: [Do things get crazy when the moon is full?](http://www.straightdope.com/classics/a2_337.html) ---
**Author:** ![t-keela](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a3d4f5/32.png) [@t-keela](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/t-keela)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-late-for-an-october-surprise/271314/38 "2004-10-29T22:03:05Z")
How about a tape with Osama threatening another attack on US soil if we don’t leave Iraq? Here it is…came out today. I figure GWB has an excuse now to bomb the shit outta where they claim he’s been hiding in Pakistan now…maybe even find reason to “visit” Iran. [http://aolsvc.news.aol.com/news/article.adp?id=20041029154209990018](http://aolsvc.news.aol.com/news/article.adp?id=20041029154209990018) Osama bin Laden, reading a statement to the American people in a new videotape aired Friday, directly admitted for the first time that he ordered the Sept. 11 attacks ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-late-for-an-october-surprise/271314/39 "2004-10-29T23:33:31Z")
> [@t-keela](#): > > How about a tape with Osama threatening another attack on US soil if we don’t leave Iraq? Here it is…came out today. I figure GWB has an excuse now to bomb the shit outta where they claim he’s been hiding in Pakistan now…maybe even find reason to “visit” Iran. > [http://aolsvc.news.aol.com/news/article.adp?id=20041029154209990018](http://aolsvc.news.aol.com/news/article.adp?id=20041029154209990018) > > Osama bin Laden, reading a statement to the American people in a new videotape aired Friday, directly admitted for the first time that he ordered the Sept. 11 attacks But this tape merely calls attention to the fact that, for all of Bush’s efforts, bin Laden is still alive and still free and still doing his thing. Seems to me that helps Kerry. ---
**Author:** ![t-keela](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a3d4f5/32.png) [@t-keela](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/t-keela)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-late-for-an-october-surprise/271314/40 "2004-10-30T00:13:48Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > But this tape merely calls attention to the fact that, for all of Bush’s efforts, bin Laden is still alive and still free and still doing his thing. Seems to me that helps Kerry. But you see things as they really are (I think/hope) I don’t know you’re voting for and won’t try to sway you. I assume you’ve decided. It is people who can’t decide that will be influenced by this. Some will go to Kerry for the reason you stated. Some will go to Bush for other reasons. GWB covered his ass already on this many months ago. he said that he wasn’t that worried about catching Bin Laden etc, etc, that’s his out. Now with this NEW threat he can justify putting Osama back on the priority list. He gets his cake and eats it too. Kerry will get some, but I think Bush has the better spin doctors and will take the advantage here. Actually with this and the press release from the pentagon GW had a good day. Plus…I wouldn’t be a damned bit surprised to see Bin Laden’s dead body show up come Monday morning. They already claimed to know about where he is…if they can get a clue from the tape. They’ll carpet bomb all of hell and drag his dead ass back on a stick. You can figure out who the next POTUS is if that did happen. That’s all speculation at this point of course. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-late-for-an-october-surprise/271314.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-late-for-an-october-surprise/271314.md?page=3)