There are a lot more Bush sux people today than there were four years ago. I doubt that there is a lot of overlap with government sux - just government run by ideological Republicans sux.
BTW, the Times this morning had an interesting article (which I only had time to read half of) of how there are a lot of states in which Democratic registration is up and Republican registration is down, including battleground states like Nevada, which Bush won narrowly in 2004. I believe this is true in California also, but we’re not exactly up for grabs this year.
Possibly, but you won’t know how many there are, nor how many could tear themselves away from their Halo games and Phish concerts and James Bond movies and MySpace pages until the votes get counted. In the meantime, you’ve got a handful of loudmouths getting a lot of press, but will that translate to an Obama win? I seem to recall threads on this board that said 2004 would surely go for Kerry.
Halo Wars has no official release date, Phish broke up years ago, Quantum of Solace doesn’t come out until November 7th and MySpace is only used by people too young to vote.
Ladies and gentlement, I present to you the next President of the United States, Barack Obama!
I don’t buy the “should be 'way ahead” chatter, but I certainly would prefer to have him to have more of a lead right now, if I had my druthers. Summer polls can be volatile, though, as most people just aren’t focusing on the race right now. Some factors that encourage me:
unpopular president at the end of his second term
economy sliding into recession, if it isn’t there already
unpopular war
Obama is a more appealing candidate and better campaigner than McCain
McCain is widely distrusted in his own party
Obama has raised, and likely will keep being able to raise, far more $$$ than McCain
As Voyager noted, Democratic registration is 'way up and Dems are far more energized than Republicans this year
There aren’t the social wedge-issue ballot initiatives (i.e. gay marriage) on state ballots this year that there were in 2004, so the Christian Right will be marginally less galvanized this year
Three months is an eternity in politics, but I have high hopes for Obama in November.
That’s a narrative to convince people that Obama isn’t as strong as he seems. It says, “oh look McCain is coming back in the second quarter.”, it’s all manipulation of perception.
Elections are a huge manipulation of perception. Obama has some very hard nuts to crack, race being the biggest IMHO. There are still some very racist educated and uneducated folk out there.
However, his primary season showed us one thing that cannot be discounted. He’s got field offices and legions of volunteers all gearing up for a historic final lap race. With all bias aside, I truly think he can pull it off. The season is ripe for change. His field office at Yale is amazing, entire semesters are being built around this race, New Haven is bustling with Obama signage and volunteers. I’m cautiously optimistic.
Dislike of Bush in California now equals the dislike of Nixon just before the resignation, and not all those people are slackers. Turnout will be important, though, but that should be good for him if the primaries are any indication. I suspect it is easier to get your ass off the chair for a general election than for a primary, especially for those who recognized that there wasn’t all that much policy difference between Clinton and Obama.
There’s a joke here in Georgia from the 2002 elections where Senator Max Cleland lost to Saxby Chambliss.
The joke is that Cleland lost the election because it was raining that day, and we liberals don’t like to go out for any reason if the weather’s bad.
The election could be affected by an number of things, so saying “Obama should be ahead” is akin to saying “The price of oil should be lower tomorrow.” I mean, it could be, but there’s no real concrete reason to know so.
There is one in CA, Proposition 8 - but it’s almost certainly not going to salvage the state for McCain. Indeed it seems to be slightly trailing in the polls in of itself.
The AP today reported that there has been a surge (heh) of Democratic and indie registrations across the country (as compared to Republican registrations). FWIW.
While I’m sure race must have played a factor in the Ford/Corker race, there was also a healthy bit of the ‘apple doesn’t fall far from the corrupt and publicly intoxicated tree’ factor. FWIW.
Fairly provocative and perhaps insightful. Strangely, I think he might do well to talk about his mother’s family more. I think it would help to give him a better sense of roots and less “otherness.”
