Bernie is a year older than Joe.
Bernie has the ear of the Liberal White vote, but it’s mute in the African American and Latino communities. Given that the Obama wave was significant in all of these segments, Bernie needs to make inroads if he’s going to be a factor at all.
More talk about this in today’s Washington Post.
And apparently in the Grey Lady as well, but see the tweets collected here, starting with “Reality 1: Biden hasn’t hired a single 2016-related staffer and has no '16 fundraising apparatus yet.”
fivethirtyeight.com kind of obliquely put out the possibility that Joe is just ready to run in case something catastrophic happens to Hillary’s campaign.
I think that makes sense. He has no chance to beat Hillary, but if some horrible (real) scandal or medical issue takes Hillary out, Biden’s the best bet the Democrats have to win the general.
If Biden can’t beat Clinton despite a huge advantage in trust, honesty, and authenticity, while also having just as much name recognition(being a sitting VP and all), then that tells me the Democratic base doesn’t value honesty a whole lot.
I think more it would more show that either voters have given up on the myth of the “honest politician” (an oxymoron) or the constant allegations tossed at the Clintons but never get proven are impotent as Bob Dole in the Viagra commercial.
Note: most of the candidates in the poll I’ve included shows very few candidates have good favorability.
The latest Quinippiac poll has Hillary at 37-56 on honesty while Biden is at 58-34. I think this is the single most alarming number for Hillary. It’s only a bit better than Trump and a lot worse than Jeb. Clearly this is not about general distrust of politicians but instead a very specific mistrust of Hillary. It suggests that Hillary will have a big problems gaining traction in a general election campaign. And she needs that traction. Her approval of 44-48 is not that of a general election winner. She will need to lift it by at least 4-5 points through her campaign. How does she do that if voters don’t trust her. ?
Even Biden lies, but Biden’s propensity for dishonesty is at normal human levels. Forget honest politician, there are very few honest people. But I can deal with normal liars. Biden doesn’t even lie well. There’s something charming about a politician who just says whatever is on his mind, yet what comes out is never really too stupid or nutty(as with Donald Trump), just a bit odd at times. And when he does lie, it’s just so glib and transparent.
Biden is an open book and that’s a quality we need in a President now.
In any case, I think that if he enters the race, the nomination is as good as his. Clinton’s support is a mile wide and an inch deep. A guy who isn’t even a Democrat or very electable is threatening her. Biden, an actual threat, will crush her. Unless Democratic voters are actually as relaxed about congenital liars as I fear.
But just keep in mind that if you do reject an honest candidate in favor of a known liar that even if elected she won’t be able to sell a single policy to a skeptical public. Who is going to believe any part of her sales pitches?
You’re kidding, right?
Because if Biden himself shared your assessment, he’d have joined the race months ago.
That’s your opinion of Hillary. It’s not universal, but it’s as widely shared as it is because if it’s Hillary that does it, the MSM turns something as routine as the release of eight years’ worth of tax returns and a health statement into something sinister, a document dump by a candidate with something to hide.
I’m not the world’s biggest Hillary fan, but jeez. Of course people like you are going to think she’s a liar.
All right then, perhaps Democrats are just relaxed about nominating a candidate who a majority of the public PERCEIVES is a liar. When they could pick one who is PERCEIVED as honest.
Perhaps many Democrats think Clinton is more likely to win, regardless of the current polling on her honesty.
Remember she doesn’t have to beat the 50% point she just has be beat her opponent, and right now as anemic as her approval ratings are the Republican candidates’ are worse.
That is actually no longer true. She’s at -5. Walker, Rubio, and Carson are doing better than her.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster#favorability-ratings
Yeah, after adding the Quinippiac poll, Hillary is 43-48 to Biden’s 44-43.
In the 2011-12 campaign, Obama bottomed out at 48-47 before rising to 51-45 before his election. He ran a pretty solid campaign with a good convention, a nice recovery after his first debate stumble and a strong finish with his handling of Hurricane Sandy. All this was worth about 3 points in approval ratings.
Hillary needs to make up more ground in her campaign though she is a worse campaigner than Obama and has very poor ratings when it comes to honesty and trustworthiness.
Another bad poll for Hillary: 37-48 on NBC/WSJ dragging down her aggregate to 42-48.
Jeb is doing even worse with an aggregate of 32-43. Rubio seems to be the best positioned at 28-29, with a lot of upside potential for a talented campaigner.
IMHO Biden’s tendency to verbal stumbles is real but exaggerated by the media. As was the similar tendencies of other politicians, e.g. Quayle, Bush etc. And ditto for other types of perceived or real failings of various other politicians. Once you get typecast as having a certain type of failing, the media seizes on it, and anything which vaguely fits gets trumpeted as another example, plus similar incidents involving other politicians or invented by late-night comedians get credited to you. Very hard to escape this.
Re his qualifications, #1 is that he’s a big people person, likeable guy and very good at negotiating with Congress (this per Eric Cantor, who dealt with him from the other side of the table). That said, I think some of the people - adaher comes to mind specifically - who are praising him so highly now will have a change of heart if he actually runs. And a lot of Democrats will resent him making it harder for Hillary.
One big difference: Jeb is a better candidate than GWB who is dragged down by voters’ memories of GWB. Hillary is a worse candidate than Bill who is being uplifted by positive memories of Bill.
Jeb might not be able to overcome his name, but it’s not surprising that he’s pretty low. I think he will fail to win the nomination for a variety of reasons, but if he did win, he’d get a chance to distinguish himself.
I’m rather skeptical that Jeb is a better candidate than GWB – GWB was a pretty solid candidates who ran very good campaigns (maybe this was Rove, but in any case GWB was very likable and surprisingly charismatic). I see no reason to believe that Jeb will be better at winning elections than GWB.
Okay, that’s a fair distinction. Although GWB was a crappy candidate. He had an amazing campaign staff. Jeb may not have the same weapons GWB had. But as far as their records go, and their likeability, Jeb is better than GWB. He was a better governor and he speaks in complete sentences and his smile doesn’t give you the creeps.