# Is Joe Biden's campaign over before it starts? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 30, 2019, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783 "2019-03-30T21:31:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 16
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2019, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/301 "2019-04-06T19:47:54Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > According to a Hill poll, a majority of American voters, Democrats, Independents, women, men, and people aged 35+ say this isn’t a deal breaker and Biden should still run. And a plurality of voters 18-34 say the same. > > [https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/437552-poll-voters-believe-bidens-conduct-with-women-should-not](https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/437552-poll-voters-believe-bidens-conduct-with-women-should-not) > > So it seems a lot of people are shrugging right now. Pretty entertaining numbers that on any deeper look demonstrate more than anything else that those most likely to call the behavior something that should disqualify were most often those who were never going to vote for him. Only 18% of Democrats think that it should be disqualifying … but those who voted for Trump in face of all of his offenses? 32% say _this_ non-sexual touching should disqualify _Biden_. (Despite the fact that the GOP skews older and younger voters overall are more likely to see it as a deal-breaker.) Independents are pretty close to Dems at 21%. Pretty sure that was 21% that were never going to vote for him. Overall female and male voters pretty similar too: only 22% of women voters says he should not run because of this and 25% of the men. Yes, that’s right. Women are shrugging it off _more_ than the men are. (I explain that by the confounder of women being more likely to be Democrats.) Interesting … ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2019, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/302 "2019-04-07T14:00:25Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Yes, that’s right. Women are shrugging it off _more_ than the men are. That _could_ be true, but we don’t know whether it’s true or not. N=482 for men, and N=522 for women, are _waaaaaay_ to small to distinguish 25% from 22%. You’d need on the order of four times as much sample to do that. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2019, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/303 "2019-04-07T18:24:46Z")
A fair cop … beyond the confounder factor. Certainly there is a lack of evidence for the contention that > [@](#): > > males among them will shrug, and females will be split between those who will sigh and swallow their disappointment (at being asked, yet again, to simply put up with uninvited touches by those with more power), and those who will reject Biden soundly and decisively. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2019, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/304 "2019-04-07T20:27:07Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > According to a Hill poll, a majority of American voters, Democrats, Independents, women, men, and people aged 35+ say this isn’t a deal breaker and Biden should still run. And a plurality of voters 18-34 say the same. > > [https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/437552-poll-voters-believe-bidens-conduct-with-women-should-not](https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/437552-poll-voters-believe-bidens-conduct-with-women-should-not) > > So it seems a lot of people are shrugging right now. It’s so obviously a political hit piece, voters are getting smarter. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2019, 10:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/305 "2019-04-08T10:32:55Z")
I don’t think the polls that have been cited necessarily tell the whole story. The women in these polls seem to be saying that these aren’t disqualifying revelations, but we wouldn’t necessarily expect them to be. However, that fact doesn’t mean that the allegations haven’t damaged the former vice president – I think they have. The allegations have given him a label at a very early stage in the campaign. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2019, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/306 "2019-04-08T14:55:22Z")
There’s some space between all women either swallowing their disappointment or soundly rejecting, and no damage at all. In any case [new poll out of SC](https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/biden-still-leads-but-abrams-buttigieg-join-front-runners-in/article_2c8f9d32-57eb-11e9-abc5-531783c41f18.html) adds more data to the conclusion of if any impact pretty minimal. > [@](#): > > The poll was taken from March 31-April 4, just after a former member of the Nevada state assembly accused Biden of touching and kissing her. While the poll was being taken, Biden promised in a video to be more mindful about personal space. > > The accusation, however, did not hurt Biden with the 744 likely Palmetto State Democratic primary voters polled. > > Biden, who is expected to join the race as early as this month, leads in South Carolina with 32 percent, more than twice as much as second-place U.S. Bernie Sanders of Vermont at 14 percent. Still, Biden dropped 4 percent from a Change Research 2020 poll in February, while Sanders was unchanged. … Bigger stories in that poll though was the strength of undeclared Abrams and doing quite well Buttigieg, both at 7%. Also this state needs to be a win for Harris to have a path. Her 10% third place pole position aint bad but won’t cut it. One assumes though hypothetical Abrams cuts into her numbers even more than it cuts into Biden’s. But as for this thread, the news cycle’s damage at least seems to be far from a death blow. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2019, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/307 "2019-04-08T22:08:30Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > There’s some space between all women either swallowing their disappointment or soundly rejecting, and no damage at all. … Not when it comes to what matters: voting. When it comes to one candidate’s fortunes, voting is binary. Either the voter casts the ballot for Biden, or the voter does _not_ cast the ballot for Biden. > [@asahi](#): > > I don’t think the polls that have been cited necessarily tell the whole story. The women in these polls seem to be saying that these aren’t disqualifying revelations, but we wouldn’t necessarily expect them to be. However, that fact doesn’t mean that the allegations haven’t damaged the former vice president – I think they have. The allegations have given him a label at a very early stage in the campaign. Yes, and that label interacts in an unfortunately synergistic way with Biden’s age. ‘He doesn’t get it’ is not a helpful image for a candidate of his advanced age. Biden’s best hope is that the other white, Christian, straight, male candidates drop out, leaving him the _Great Could-Appeal-To-Obama/Trump-Voters Hope_. (Doubt they’ll write a play about that.) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2019, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/308 "2019-04-08T23:20:46Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > Not when it comes to what matters: voting. When it comes to one candidate’s fortunes, voting is binary. Either the voter casts the ballot for Biden, or the voter does _not_ cast the ballot for Biden. …, Huh? We are talking about impact on the population of voters. Some will cast their vote for Biden and some will not. Not quite binary because of course it matters what that not is but fine. When it comes to one candidate’s fortunes however it matters how many more of those nots there are. That is what matters and is not binary. If there are so few nots that your total is not significantly impacted (as polling since so far suggests but it is early) or enough that it matters and how much it matters. Not binary. So far this seems to be an issue that matters mainly to who were never going to vote for him for the nomination and not to others very much at all. And it appears not a bigger issue to women than men. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2019, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/309 "2019-04-08T23:24:39Z")
Another data point. > **[New poll finds Biden leading Dem pack despite accusations](https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/437871-new-poll-biden-still-leads-democratic-presidential-pack-despite/)** > > Former Vice President Joe Biden leads the Democratic pack of contenders for the White House despite a week of accusations of improper touching and kissing from seven women, according to a new … His lead has grown since the news cycle began. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2019, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/310 "2019-04-08T23:36:06Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > Yes, and that label interacts in an unfortunately synergistic way with Biden’s age. ‘He doesn’t get it’ is not a helpful image for a candidate of his advanced age. I think this is what I’m getting at. We’ve all known that this is part of who Biden is, so I wouldn’t expect voters to be so hypocritical to suddenly find these examples to be disqualifying in and of themselves. But as you say, it speaks to his age, and it reminds people that Biden has a long history of being a very old-fashioned Democratic candidate, and maybe I’m wrong, but I’m getting the sense that today’s Democratic is done with the centrist model. FTR, I’m skeptical that they can win without moderates, which is why I unfortunately come to the conclusion that Trump has a very good chance at re-election. I think Biden would probably be formidable in states that Hillary lost, but he has to get there first, and that’s far from certain. Obama spoke the other day about the Dems’ ‘circular firing squad’ which tells me he’s just as concerned as I am. Sherrod Brown is a very crafty politician and just happens to have a track record of success in the region that Democrats want badly to compete in – and yet he dropped out, too, probably because he also has those same concerns. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2019, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/311 "2019-04-08T23:37:57Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Another data point. > > [https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/437871-new-poll-biden-still-leads-democratic-presidential-pack-despite](https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/437871-new-poll-biden-still-leads-democratic-presidential-pack-despite) > > His lead has grown since the news cycle began. I wouldn’t read much into it - he could be benefiting just from having the attention. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2019, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/312 "2019-04-08T23:47:06Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I wouldn’t read much into it - he could be benefiting just from having the attention. “There’s no such thing as bad publicity” doesn’t usually get applied to politicians. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2019, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/313 "2019-04-08T23:58:35Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > There’s some space between all women either swallowing their disappointment or soundly rejecting, and no damage at all. … > [@Sherrerd](#): > > Not when it comes to what matters: voting. When it comes to one candidate’s fortunes, voting is binary. Either the voter casts the ballot for Biden, or the voter does _not_ cast the ballot for Biden. > [@DSeid](#): > > … We are talking about impact on the population of voters. Some will cast their vote for Biden and some will not. Not quite binary because of course it matters what that not is but fine. When it comes to one candidate’s fortunes however it matters how many more of those nots there are. That is what matters and is not binary. If there are so few nots that your total is not significantly impacted (as polling since so far suggests but it is early) or enough that it matters and how much it matters. **Not binary…** I’m not sure you’ve successfully refuted the proposition “when it comes to one candidate’s fortunes, voting is binary. Either the voter casts the ballot for Biden, or the voter does _not_ cast the ballot for Biden.” It still appears to me that for any particular voter, either that voter casts a ballot for Biden, or that voter does _not_ cast a ballot for Biden. Though the latter option can happen in many different ways (all with varying effects on the election overall)-----so far as Biden is concerned, it’s a vote he didn’t get. The voter either: [ul] [li]votes for Biden or [/li][li]does not vote for Biden.[/li][/ul] Do you believe some other option exists? I’m not asking about all the various _ways_ the second option could occur\*----- I’m saying that in the universe of things a voter could do, ‘votes for Biden’ and ‘does not vote for Biden’ exhausts the possibilities. If you believe otherwise, could you expand on your argument? \*which would include ‘votes for Candidate R’, ‘votes for Candidate S,’ ‘votes for Candidate T,’ etc. for the entire list of candidates and write-ins, and also ‘does not vote,’ for various reasons. Again, this list is _not_ what I was talking about. What I was talking about was ‘vote for Biden’ versus ‘does not vote for Biden.’ ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2019, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/314 "2019-04-09T00:39:23Z")
As much as every vote matters it is the aggregate that determines a candidate’s fortune. Elections are not decided by the voter but by the voters. Really what are you babbling about? So far the evidence is that the voters who have not already decided against Biden are not moved to do decide against him based on this news cycle to at least any significant degree. The move up may be statistical noise but it demonstrates pretty well the lack of a meaningful move down. asahi you may have a sense but what data do you have to back that sense up? ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2019, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/315 "2019-04-09T01:07:28Z")
I guess since I kicked this little nest of hornets, I should respond. And the answer is, no, apparently Joe’s campaign is not over before it starts. I suspect he has been damaged, but maybe not. Time will tell. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2019, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/316 "2019-04-09T01:10:23Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > As much as every vote matters it is the aggregate that determines a candidate’s fortune. Elections are not decided by the voter but by the voters. > > Really what are you babbling about? > > So far the evidence is that the voters who have not already decided against Biden are not moved to do decide against him based on this news cycle to at least any significant degree. The move up may be statistical noise but it demonstrates pretty well the lack of a meaningful move down. It’s too soon for polling to support the conclusion that the Biden revelations have had no important effect. As you imply, a significant cratering isn’t _currently_ evident; whether or not the news will show up in coming days as erosive to Biden’s numbers is yet to be determined. As for ‘babbling’–in post #303 you indicated what looked like perturbation at the notion that males and females might have differing reactions to the Biden news. It led you to make statements such as > [@](#): > > Some will cast their vote for Biden and some will not. Not quite binary because of course it matters what that not is but fine. When it comes to one candidate’s fortunes however it matters how many more of those nots there are. That is what matters and is not binary. …in which you appeared at pains to refute the notion that ‘votes for Biden’ and ‘does not vote for Biden’ could be a binary representation of reality. It seemed reasonable to ask you why you held that belief, and why you saw it as meaningful. Yes, the total number of votes matters. Are you aware that the total is made up of individual votes? Your comments quoted above do not inspire confidence. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2019, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/317 "2019-04-09T01:19:21Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I guess since I kicked this little nest of hornets, I should respond. And the answer is, no, apparently Joe’s campaign is not over before it starts. I suspect he has been damaged, but maybe not. Time will tell. Eric Swalwell announced tonight—another (basically) moderate white male. This won’t help Biden. The more centrist white males there are in the race, the less those who like Biden have a reason to rationalize his problems (of age, of having failed to get the nomination before, of having problems with being handsy, etc.). I don’t hate Biden, but I will admit I don’t particularly admire him. More importantly, I see vulnerabilities that lead me to believe he will lose to Trump. Trump may be visibly suffering from dementia, but his supporters are being protected from that knowledge. All Americans will see Biden’s upcoming gaffes and slowness, though. Those who _haven’t_ already made up their mind (‘for Trump’ OR ‘for any functioning adult OTHER than Trump’) are not going to be enthusiastic about Biden. He’s polling well now because of name-recognition. That won’t be enough on November 3, 2020. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2019, 5:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/318 "2019-04-09T05:05:15Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > It’s too soon for polling to support the conclusion that the Biden revelations have had no important effect. As you imply, a significant cratering isn’t _currently_ evident; whether or not the news will show up in coming days as erosive to Biden’s numbers is yet to be determined… It is _possible_ for there to be some delayed effect but that it is not how bad news cycles have impacted polling in the past. Usually the impact begins to show pretty much right away, often then recovering back to the politician’s mean over another week or so. So far what we can say is the women voters are (minimally) no more likely to be overly bothered by this item than are male voters (neither bothered very much) and the apples to apples polls done before and after the news cycle are showing no impact on his support. First sign of [any negative impact](https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Political-Intelligence-4.9.19.pdf) today - he still leads by as much (32%, 9% above Sanders in second place and 23% above Harris in third, 38% in the early primary states) but the strength of his favorability has softened some. He still has higher ratings there than anyone else but some of his favorability moved from “very” to “somewhat”. So there’s that. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2019, 5:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/319 "2019-04-09T05:11:28Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > …Those who _haven’t_ already made up their mind (‘for Trump’ OR ‘for any functioning adult OTHER than Trump’) are not going to be enthusiastic about Biden. He’s polling well now because of name-recognition. That won’t be enough on November 3, 2020. What demographics do you think these people belong to? And who do you think they would be enthusiastic about and why? As previously stated I see that group possibly being the Obama-Trump and the Romney-Clinton voters. Do you see them as someone else? I’ve made the case why those voters specifically are most likely to be won over by Biden. I would like to hear why any specific other candidates will appeal top those demographics more. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2019, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/320 "2019-04-09T22:15:44Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > What demographics do you think these people belong to? And **who do you think they would be enthusiastic about and why?** > > As previously stated I see that group possibly being the Obama-Trump and the Romney-Clinton voters. Do you see them as someone else? > > I’ve made the case why those voters specifically are most likely to be won over by Biden. I would like to hear **why any specific other candidates will appeal top those demographics more**. My emphasis. Your remarks imply that there are two possibilities: a particular group of voters will be enthusiastic about Biden, or they will be enthusiastic about some other candidate. The obvious missing option here is that they will not be enthusiastic about any candidate at all (and would be likely to join the ‘not voting’ contingent). As to the particular make-up of the particular group in question: I have no quarrel with your idea about ‘people who voted for Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016’ (and the same for Romney then Clinton) as being a group who might be seeking a centrist, traditional type of Democrat to vote for. As we get closer to November 2020, no doubt there will be more research published on these types of patterns, and we’ll get a better idea of how predictive of 2020 choices such past voting might turn out to be. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783.md?page=15) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783.md?page=17)