# Is Joe Biden's campaign over before it starts? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 30, 2019, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783 "2019-03-30T21:31:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 17
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2019, 4:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/321 "2019-04-10T04:57:43Z")
So let me see if I understand you correctly - You think that those who haven’t already made up their mind, which mostly means the Obama-Trump and Romney-Clinton voters, won’t be enthusiastic about Biden, and you have no other candidate in mind that you think they would be enthusiastic about, suggesting that maybe they won’t be enthusiastic about anyone and just not vote. Since you think no one may enthuse might they vote for a candidate they are not enthusiastic for instead of not voting/ Of those either running or expected to run who do you think might be most attractive to those two groups (even if they are not enthusiastic), more appealing to both, or failing that, either, than Biden is? ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2019, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/322 "2019-04-10T23:51:34Z")
If the fraction of the voting-eligible population we’re looking at is ‘those who voted for Obama then for Trump, plus those who voted for Romney then for Clinton’----- Then I think they’ll like Biden until some combination of Biden’s foes (including some fans of Trump and some fans of others who are running as Democrats) dissuade them via relentless reminders of the vulnerabilities represented by Biden’s record. Then they’ll look to some other person who has the qualities of ‘whiteness’ and ‘maleness’ and ‘moderateness.’ There are plenty to choose from. From that list, Tim Ryan may become a favorite, given that he challenged Nancy Pelosi for the House leadership. Do we have any numbers on the probable size of your groups, by the way? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2019, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/323 "2019-04-11T02:49:34Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > … Do we have any numbers on the probable size of your groups, by the way? [Yes we do.](https://www.voterstudygroup.org/publications/2016-elections/executive-summary) > [@](#): > > Nine percent of Obama voters voted for Trump while 5 percent voted for a third-party candidate or a write-in, while 5 percent of Romney voters supported Clinton and 6 percent voted for a third-party candidate or write-in. [This study](https://wthh.dataforprogress.org/exploring-vote-switchers-in-2018) is also interesting. It looks beyond Obama-Trump and Romney-Clinton and throws in 2018 midterm voting as well. > [@](#): > > we find that Romney-Trump voters who defected to the Democrats in 2018 typically came from the suburbs, while Obama-Trump voters who returned to the Democrats in 2018 were split between living in suburban and rural areas. A plurality of loyal Republicans in our sample lived in rural areas, while Democrats were split between living in urban and in suburban areas. Consistent with some other work on the 2018 electorate, we find that voters who shifted from President Obama to the Republicans in recent years lopsidedly live in rural areas. > > Not surprisingly, self-identified political moderates formed pluralities among the vote switcher categories, and formed an outright majority of Romney voters who have since gone Democratic in 2016 and 2018. But fully 42 percent of Obama-Trump voters who returned to the Democratic Party in 2018 identified as conservative, compared with 33 percent who identified as liberal. Fully 54 percent of Romney-Trump voters who defected to a Democratic candidate in 2018 identified as conservative or very conservative. On policy Obama-Trump voters tend to want strong border security and support the Green New Deal. Pretty much everyone but the loyal Republicans specifically like the idea of pollution fees charged on businesses that produce high levels of greenhouse gases. Obama-Trump voters are pretty split on gun control but Romney-Clinton ones are strong supporters. And a very interesting one - for both the Obama-Trump and Romney-Clinton voters those who voted D in 2018 show support Medicare for All while those who voted R tend not to. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2019, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/324 "2019-04-15T15:15:35Z")
Well maybe some impact after all? [Emerson’s today](http://emersonpolling.com/2019/04/15/april-national-poll-bernie-takes-lead-for-democratic-nomination-mayor-pete-on-the-move/) - > [@](#): > > A new national Emerson poll, including 20 Democratic candidates for President, found Senator Bernie Sanders ahead of the pack with 29%, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden at 24%. They were followed by Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 9%, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke and Senator Kamala Harris at 8%, and Senator Elizabeth Warren at 7%. Entrepreneur Andrew Yang and former HUD secretary Julian Castro were at 3%. The poll was conducted April 11-14 of Democratic Primary voters with a subset of n=356, +/- 5.2%. > > Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, said “while still early in the nominating process, it looks like Mayor Pete is the candidate capturing voters’ imagination; the numbers had him at 0% in mid-February, 3% in March and now at 9% in April.” > > Kimball also noted that “Biden has seen his support drop. In February, he led Sanders 27% to 17%, and in March the two were tied at 26%. Now, Sanders has a 5 point lead, 29% to 24%.” … Although the onset of his dropping preceded the news and may be independent of it. Still his not yet campaign is far from “over”. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2019, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/325 "2019-04-15T22:28:22Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Well maybe some impact after all? [Emerson’s today](http://emersonpolling.com/2019/04/15/april-national-poll-bernie-takes-lead-for-democratic-nomination-mayor-pete-on-the-move/) - Although the onset of his dropping preceded the news and may be independent of it. > > Still his not yet campaign is far from “over”. Agreed. (And thanks for the statistical information you posted in your last two posts.) ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2019, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/326 "2019-04-16T18:05:26Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Well maybe some impact after all? [Emerson’s today](http://emersonpolling.com/2019/04/15/april-national-poll-bernie-takes-lead-for-democratic-nomination-mayor-pete-on-the-move/) - Although the onset of his dropping preceded the news and may be independent of it. > > Still his not yet campaign is far from “over”. Yep. Sanders supporters hit Biden, thus pushing Biden out of first place, increasing Sanders chance of winning the primary, and Trump’s chances of winning the election. Every nasty hit piece on a Dem increases Trump’s chance of winning. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2019, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/327 "2019-04-16T20:32:17Z")
If you think there will be no hit pieces on candidates you live in a dream world. Or do you think only 1 Dem should run and nobody should say anything bad about him/her? ---
**Author:** ![SmartAleq](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smartaleq/32/163_2.png) [@SmartAleq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SmartAleq)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2019, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/328 "2019-04-17T00:05:13Z")
[Here’s an article from 2017, when there were no axes to grind re Biden and his little peccadilloes](https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/11/exclusive-former-joe-biden-secret-service-agent-protect-women-weinstein-level-stuff/). It’s pretty fucked up when your Secret Service detail is steering you away from every woman in sight, and they’ve been doing it for years as a matter of course. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2019, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/329 "2019-04-17T00:25:04Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > If you think there will be no hit pieces on candidates you live in a dream world. Or do you think only 1 Dem should run and nobody should say anything bad about him/her? Oh no, not at all. It’s perfectly Ok to say that "Bidens Positions on XXXX is bad becuase here is my position which is far better. " Or that “Sanders supports Medicare for all, which is a pipe dream and too expensive\>” or anything issue related. Or even “I am supporting Biden because he has the best chance of beating Trump and I dont think xxxx can win against trump.” But cheap below the belt attacks accusing a fellow dem of being a pedophile creep are not. I hope you can see the difference. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2019, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/330 "2019-04-17T00:28:19Z")
> [@SmartAleq](#): > > [Here’s an article from 2017, when there were no axes to grind re Biden and his little peccadilloes](https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/11/exclusive-former-joe-biden-secret-service-agent-protect-women-weinstein-level-stuff/). It’s pretty fucked up when your Secret Service detail is steering you away from every woman in sight, and they’ve been doing it for years as a matter of course. An anonymous source from Gateway Pundit? Got anything from World Net Daily? ---
**Author:** ![Covfefe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ee7513/32.png) [@Covfefe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Covfefe)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2019, 12:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/331 "2019-04-17T00:40:47Z")
Or maybe Project Veritas has some dirt. ---
**Author:** ![SmartAleq](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smartaleq/32/163_2.png) [@SmartAleq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SmartAleq)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2019, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/332 "2019-04-17T02:13:25Z")
Y’know, funny thing, I recall a lot of people pooh-poohing a story about presidential candidate Gary Hart getting busted getting frisky with a lady not his wife because it ran in the National Enquirer. Anybody else remember how that all shook out in the end in spite of the media outlet that leaked the story? Anyone? How did Gary do in that race, anyone recall? Trick is that when all the “legitimate” media outlets all belong to the same five or six companies and they all have vested interests in promulgating specific narratives any stories outside of the authorized narrative are, by default, going to show up in some oddball places. That’s how media consolidation works. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2019, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/333 "2019-04-17T02:28:00Z")
> [@SmartAleq](#): > > Y’know, funny thing, I recall a lot of people pooh-poohing a story about presidential candidate Gary Hart getting busted getting frisky with a lady not his wife because it ran in the National Enquirer. Anybody else remember how that all shook out in the end in spite of the media outlet that leaked the story? Anyone? How did Gary do in that race, anyone recall? > > Trick is that when all the “legitimate” media outlets all belong to the same five or six companies and they all have vested interests in promulgating specific narratives any stories outside of the authorized narrative are, by default, going to show up in some oddball places. That’s how media consolidation works. :rolleyes: I’m sure you just swallow whole all those “drunken Bernie praises Russian bread lines and loves Fidel Castro” stories they run. ---
**Author:** ![SmartAleq](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smartaleq/32/163_2.png) [@SmartAleq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SmartAleq)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2019, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/334 "2019-04-17T02:53:16Z")
Let’s just say that an “unreliable” news source tells me that when someone dropped a 50 kilo rock off a twenty story building it landed on a person’s head with great force and killed them. I have no problem believing that because, regardless of who said it, it jibes just fine with observed reality and the way that 50 kilo rocks dropped from great heights usually behave. Let’s also just say, for the sake of argument, that a very reliable source, like the NY Times for instance, reports that the very same 50 kilo rock, when dropped from another 20 story building, actually bounced right off a person’s head and did them no harm at all–in fact, it bounced off several people’s heads in sequence doing no harm to anyone at all. Does the reliability of the source automatically lend probity to the otherwise extremely unlikely story? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2019, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/335 "2019-04-17T03:29:33Z")
> [@SmartAleq](#): > > Let’s just say that an “unreliable” news source tells me that … Yeah it’s a basic principle - confirmation bias. ---
**Author:** ![SmartAleq](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smartaleq/32/163_2.png) [@SmartAleq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SmartAleq)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2019, 4:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/336 "2019-04-17T04:05:04Z")
It’s a logical fallacy–appeal to (dis)trust. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2019, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/337 "2019-04-17T04:18:12Z")
> [@SmartAleq](#): > > Y’know, funny thing, I recall a lot of people pooh-poohing a story about presidential candidate Gary Hart getting busted getting frisky with a lady not his wife because it ran in the National Enquirer. Well, yeah, that’s how it works. When 99% of your stories are garbage, that’s reason to see the rare counter-example as a fluke, not reason to believe that Elvis really did have Dolly Parton’s alien lovechild. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2019, 5:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/338 "2019-04-17T05:08:57Z")
> [@SmartAleq](#): > > It’s a logical fallacy–appeal to (dis)trust. The logical fallacy would apply if it was stated that something MUST be false because an untrustworthy source stated it, or MUST be true is a trustworthy source states it. It is the absolutism that is the fallacy. When the fallacy applies to distrust the usually untrustworthy source would be disbelieved no matter how much solid and independently evidence is shown. It would be akin to me saying that if Trump says it it must be a lie, that he nothing he says is truthful ever. That would be a very different thing that me saying that his saying it is not enough to make me believe it and that I am more prone to believe information that I read as an article (not an editorial) in the New York Times. Having relative non-absolute degrees of confidence in different source is not appeal to trust (or distrust). No the applicable fallacy _is_ conformation bias. You are prone to believe a very untrustworthy source because the story conforms to what you already believe, and you are prone to interpret information in a way that conforms to those extant beliefs as well, while you would be dismissive of information that does not fit those existing constructs no matter how reliable the source giving that information has previously been. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2019, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/339 "2019-04-19T16:39:46Z")
CNN says he is entering the race next week. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2019, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783/340 "2019-04-21T13:34:01Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > CNN says he is entering the race next week. Good reason to drop [this](https://www.currentaffairs.org/2019/03/everybodys-chum) in here, then: > [@](#): > > The problem here is not Biden’s “bipartisanship.” Sometimes you have to work with people whose values you find repellent. Finding points of common interest is basic political political pragmatism (see the bipartisan Yemen resolution shepherded through the Senate by Bernie Sanders). The problem comes when you get so close to the powerful, and spend so long around them, that you cease to be disgusted by disgusting things. At this point, “friendliness” just means a lack of moral seriousness. To be chummy with MBNA is to be cruel to bankrupt debtors. To be chummy with Mike Pence is to be cruel to LGBT people. To be chummy with Frank Upton means helping him beat his Democratic opponent. To be chummy with Israel is to ignore the murder of Palestinian journalists, paramedics, and activists. This is part of a much longer read that amounts to a devastating indictment of Biden’s kind of politics. If there was a time when, as my father used to say, both parties wanted the same things but differed on the means of achieving them, Biden would have been right for that era. But it’s certainly not true now, and the author brings up some examples from Biden’s political career in the 1970s and 1980s that show it was often far from the case back then, as well. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783.md?page=16) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-joe-bidens-campaign-over-before-it-starts/831783.md?page=18)