EvanS, I occasionally see someone on the street challenging people to games of three-card monte. You know, there’s the king and then there’s two jacks, and they show you the king and then move the cards around, and if you point to the king you win twenty bucks, and if you don’t you lose twenty bucks.
Three-card monte is a scam. The method for performing it is published. I’ve heard of many cases of people performing the scam, and I’ve never heard of anyone running the game legitimately (at least not with money involved).
Let’s say I’m walking down the street, and across the street I see a guy with a three-card monte game going. As a skeptic, do I:
a) Assume he’s running the same scam as everyone else whom I’ve seen running the game, or
b) Cross the street and watch him carefully to see if he’s also running the scam?
c) Not cross the street, but suspend judgment; and if someone considerng playing the game asks me whether it’s legit, say, “I don’t know; it could be!”
Me, I choose a. Life’s too short, and there’s other, more interesting things going on. Sure, there’s a chance that this guy has chosen to run a legit game; but that chance is pretty small, and I’ve got no reason to think he is. Why would I waste my time?
And why would I tell someone it could be legit? The chances of that seem pretty small, and the chances of their getting suckered seem pretty big.
Now, that’s just an analogy. The difference between three-card monte and psychic healing is that, in order to run a legit game of three-card, you’d have to have fairly unusual motives. In order to perform a legitimate psychic surgery, you’d have to violate the known and understood laws of biology and physics, as demonstrate in millions of events every day.
I’m a skeptic, but I’ll admit there’s a chance that John of God is for real. There’s also a chance that the moon landing didn’t happen, that Hitler was a pooka gone out of control, and that the Straight Dope Message Board is a database existing in a giant brain in a vat in Tuscon.
None of these possibilities is large enough for me to give them any attention. Why should I?
Daniel