# Is Martin Armstrong a fraud/conspiracy theorist? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [June 21, 2013, 10:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547 "2013-06-21T10:25:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Alba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ea666f/32.png) [@Alba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alba)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 10:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/1 "2013-06-21T10:25:44Z")
I have been reading Martin Armstrong’s blog for over a year. The first months I read everything he wrote. However, after a while his pieces seemed to resemble the ravings of a reality distorted person. The information or facts he addresses are poorly written and jump from one conclusion to the next. I am torn between thinking this is an actual financial guru, off the rails genius or a fraud. The reason I think he might be a financial guru is because of work he has done in the past. There is a presentation he gave in 1998 that predicted the sub-prime crisis in 1998. He has had correspondence with the US government about serious finance issues he foresaw. And even today some of his pieces seem to be spot on. However, he often includes information that makes me think he is one of the latter two. Who here has actually signed up for his subscription or has been to a presentation and can tell me more if it is worth it and that this man is credible. Also, more information about his incarceration without due process would be appreciated. His website [Shop | Armstrong Economics](http://armstrongeconomics.com/author/armstrongeconomics/) Thanks. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 10:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/2 "2013-06-21T10:48:15Z")
In case this is spam I’m not clicking on that link, but if [this](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_A._Armstrong) is the Martin Armstrong you are talking about he’s a convicted criminal. A _financial_ criminal; sending him money strikes me as a bad idea. And just from the limited data on that wiki page someone I wouldn’t deal with in any way. ---
**Author:** ![Alba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ea666f/32.png) [@Alba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alba)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 10:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/3 "2013-06-21T10:56:40Z")
Sorry, not spam. It is the same Martin Armstrong. I have read his wiki and several interviews about him. He also addresses his conviction in his blog posts and there are questions sent in by blog readers who say that his case was given as an example in law class. I don’t know in how far that is true. ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/4 "2013-06-21T13:26:37Z")
> **[Self-Aware Artificial Intelligence | Armstrong Economics](https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/self-aware-artificial-intelligence/)** > > QUESTION: You are a legend in programming that you seem not to be aware of. The debate has been did your computer achieve self-consciousness? ANSWER: No. It achieved self-awareness. It immediately knew the government was trying to take it to its... QUESTION: You are a legend in programming that you seem not to be aware of. The debate has been did your computer achieve self-consciousness? ANSWER: No. It achieved self-awareness. It immediately knew the government was trying to take it to its secret computer lab in WTC building 7 that mysterious collapsed even though nothing struck the building. They were angry when they realized it had self-destructed. It was aware of its surroundings and it took all but 7 seconds to self-destruct overwriting all code 7 times and shifting around so they could never un-erase and put him back together again. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/5 "2013-06-21T13:44:00Z")
> [@Alba](#): > > The information or facts he addresses are poorly written and jump from one conclusion to the next. I am torn between thinking this is an actual financial guru, off the rails genius or a fraud. > > The reason I think he might be a financial guru is because of work he has done in the past. There is a presentation he gave in 1998 that predicted the sub-prime crisis in 1998. He has had correspondence with the US government about serious finance issues he foresaw. And even today some of his pieces seem to be spot on. However, he often includes information that makes me think he is one of the latter two. So the guy sounds like a loon to you, but you think he might still be a genius because he predicted the [subprime crisis in 1998](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_crisis_background_information)? Just from reading that Wikipedia article, it wasn’t a surprise in 1998 that there was a subprime crisis. It says, " First, during late 2007, over 100 mortgage lending companies went bankrupt as subprime mortgage-backed securities could no longer be sold to investors to acquire funds. Second, starting in Q4 2007 and in each quarter since then, financial institutions have recognized massive losses as they adjust the value of their mortgage backed securities to a fraction of their purchased prices." And if one makes enough predictions, one can point to the correct ones, and hope that the audience ignores the incorrect ones. ---
**Author:** ![Hermitian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hermitian/32/470_2.png) [@Hermitian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hermitian)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/6 "2013-06-21T14:33:52Z")
> [@PatriotX](#): > > QUESTION: You are a legend in programming that you seem not to be aware of. The debate has been did your computer achieve self-consciousness? > ANSWER: No. It achieved self-awareness. It immediately knew the government was trying to take it to its secret computer lab in WTC building 7 that mysterious collapsed even though nothing struck the building. They were angry when they realized it had self-destructed. It was aware of its surroundings and it took all but 7 seconds to self-destruct overwriting all code 7 times and shifting around so they could never un-erase and put him back together again. Your ideas intrigue me and I’d like to subscribe to your newsle…oh, he has a blog. I guess that is the same thing. ---
**Author:** ![Alba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ea666f/32.png) [@Alba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alba)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/7 "2013-06-21T15:15:48Z")
He also publishes paid reports on metals, shares, currencies etc. and travels to countries to give presentations which cost money. Here is a (pdf) link to one of his presentations he gave in the '90s. [http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/1998%20fall%20Seminar%20Tour.pdf](http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/1998%20fall%20Seminar%20Tour.pdf) Check the last page of the presentation. He also predicts other things, some still going to happen. But I agree the posts keep getting worse. The one PatriotX linked is the worst so far. I don’t need convincing to not send him money (or for that case read his blog anymore). I was hoping somebody here went to one of those presentations and knows if it is all hot air. ---
**Author:** ![Alba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ea666f/32.png) [@Alba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alba)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/8 "2013-06-21T15:17:16Z")
I must say that when I read below link I thought (hoped) he was being sarcastic. > **[Self-Aware Artificial Intelligence | Armstrong Economics](https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/self-aware-artificial-intelligence/)** > > QUESTION: You are a legend in programming that you seem not to be aware of. The debate has been did your computer achieve self-consciousness? ANSWER: No. It achieved self-awareness. It immediately knew the government was trying to take it to its... ---
**Author:** ![digs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/digs/32/14889_2.png) [@digs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/digs)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/9 "2013-06-21T15:23:54Z")
> [@Alba](#): > > I was hoping somebody here went to one of those presentations and knows if it is all hot air. I don’t think you’d need to physically attend one of his presentations to realize that he’s beyond hot air, and well into delusion. The question is, has he moved from deluding others to self-delusion? ---
**Author:** ![Alba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ea666f/32.png) [@Alba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alba)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/10 "2013-06-21T15:46:46Z")
Based on his former posts and what he is doing now. To me it seems like he lost his marbles in jail. But check the last page of the linked pdf. It states: 1998: Collapse of Russia 1999: Low Gold & Oil 2000: Technology Bubble 2002: Bottom US Share Market 2007: Real Estate Bubble, Oil hits $100 2009: Start of Sovereign Debt Crisis 2011-15: Japan Economic Decline Euro begins to crack due to debt crisis 2015.75 Sovereign Debt Big Bang All the same pretty impressive to predict in 1998. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/11 "2013-06-21T15:58:03Z")
It’s pretty easy in 2013 to predict events that happened in the last decade and write “1998” on the list. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/12 "2013-06-21T16:07:33Z")
I don’t know who he is. However it seems like the rule applies here: If you have to ask… ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/13 "2013-06-21T16:18:05Z")
> [@Lemur866](#): > > It’s pretty easy in 2013 to predict events that happened in the last decade and write “1998” on the list. I’d say it was pre-2013. There wasn’t a sovereign debt crisis in 2009, after all (which bodes ill for a sovereign debt “Big Bang” in 2015). And our budget deficit, while still relatively large, has stabilized. Also, Japan’s economy is actually on an upswing these days. In context, these predictions aren’t actually that impressive. Lots of people saw the tech bubble in 1998. And lots of them thought it would pop. Heck, I’m not even in finance and thought the tech sector was in a bubble back in '98. Likewise low gold and oil in '99. Lots of people saw that coming. Predictions on gold and oil prices a year out aren’t really that impressive. Worse, whatever “Bottom US Share Market” means, it probably didn’t happen in 2002. Times weren’t good, but we were more or less recovering from the recession at that point. Lots of people saw the housing bubble coming. Lots more ignored the signs. Again, not really “impressive” to have a prediction that other people had. Here’s [one discussion](http://socialdemocracy21stcentury.blogspot.com/2011/12/austrians-predicted-housing-bubble-but.html?_sm_au_=iVV4JFFP8PRWMPvP) of it, in fact. Also, different groups with different economic philosophies called it at various points but for different reasons. It doesn’t validate their underlying philosophies anymore than correctly guessing “heads” on a coin flip means you are clairvoyant (especially if several of your other guesses end up wrong). There’s more than a little smell of confirmation bias here. Several of these predictions were wrong. Others were made by lots of other people. It fits a narrative to make him out to be visionary or ahead of the curve, but the evidence doesn’t warrant it. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/14 "2013-06-21T16:27:18Z")
> [@Lemur866](#): > > It’s pretty easy in 2013 to predict events that happened in the last decade and write “1998” on the list. The PDF was created with Microsoft PowerPoint 2010. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/15 "2013-06-21T16:31:17Z")
This sounds an awful lot like Ray Kurzweil’s claims of tons of correct predictions over the years. To get anywhere close to his self-reported correct prediction percentage, you have to grant a LOT of leeway in how his precise words should be interpreted and look through some rose colored glasses. The same appears to be true here. ---
**Author:** ![M11111](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/3be4f8/32.png) [@M11111](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/M11111)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2014, 5:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/16 "2014-04-29T05:17:21Z")
I’m digging this old thread up because time has passed and now I think you can look at some of Martin’s work and see what he said. Also his recent computer videos on Socrates made me a little more skeptical of him. However the more I dig, the more I find insights that were only his, and are shockingly accurate. Here’s the first paragraph from a 2013 January report : _“Yes the Cycles of War are due to turn up in 2014. But this will most likely begin with the rise of internal separatism and civil unrest. True this model pinpointed World War I, World War II, Vietnam all spot on. This time, it is primarily focused in the West/Middle East rather than Asia. The real risk remains Russia. We will be reviewing this year the Cycles of War on a detailed basis since the last report was published in 1986. There appear to be some surprises ahead. War has been a fairly regular pastime of mankind, but it ALWAYS is linked to economics.”_ He called Russia as the problem. At the time Russia was very docile and now it’s over a year later, and Putin has managed to invade the Ukraine and confuse the rest of the world into thinking, it’s not really an invasion. Amazing. I personally believe Martin is a genius. No one made this call that early. Also, before the Olympics, Martin said Putin would invade after the Olympics, it happened just as he said. He looks at history to predict what men will do next, and often he is correct. I know of no one else who does this, or who has the extensive historic knowledge to do this. Is Martin a genius? Yes Is Martin crazy? Yes Is he worth reading? Absolutely. I’ve worked with other genius over the years, and I can say, most genius are also crazy. Martin is no exception. The trick is to look at their perspective as a tool, but still have a filter yourself. Some of Martin’s work is spot on, other is a little strange, all of it is intriguing. ---
**Author:** ![smithsb](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smithsb/32/12107_2.png) [@smithsb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smithsb)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2014, 6:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/17 "2014-04-29T06:32:07Z")
Nice first post M11111. I’m sure those new revelations will rehabilitate Mr. Armstrong’s reputation among the skeptics on this board. Where should we send in our subscription money? ---
**Author:** ![M11111](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/3be4f8/32.png) [@M11111](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/M11111)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2014, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/18 "2014-04-30T01:33:54Z")
> [@smithsb](#): > > Nice first post M11111. I’m sure those new revelations will rehabilitate Mr. Armstrong’s reputation among the skeptics on this board. Where should we send in our subscription money? Give your credit card to Porter Stansberry ---
**Author:** ![nevadaexile](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/eb8c5e/32.png) [@nevadaexile](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nevadaexile)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2014, 1:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/19 "2014-04-30T01:42:09Z")
M11111 Russia has been in a state of slow decline for the last 35-40 years. It’s hardly a “prediction” to guess that this would continue and grow worse as time went. Even a blind hog can occasionally an acorn. If it’s 50% or less, it’s guessing. If it’s consistently greater than 50% it _ **might** _ be called prescient. However, it’s also likely that someone post their predictions well after the event they foretell have already occurred. ---
**Author:** ![M11111](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/3be4f8/32.png) [@M11111](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/M11111)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2014, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/20 "2014-04-30T01:57:10Z")
> [@nevadaexile](#): > > M11111 Russia has been in a state of slow decline for the last 35-40 years. It’s hardly a “prediction” to guess that this would continue and grow worse as time went. Even a blind hog can occasionally an acorn. > > If it’s 50% or less, it’s guessing. > If it’s consistently greater than 50% it _ **might** _ be called prescient. > However, it’s also likely that someone post their predictions well after the event they foretell have already occurred. I’m confused when you say decline, I know a few Russians, they are getting fat off American fast food and the economy has been growing. [Graph of Russian GDP from Forbes](http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http%3A%2F%2Fblogs-images.forbes.com%2Fmarkadomanis%2Ffiles%2F2012%2F07%2FUS-GDP-1998-2012.png&imgrefurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fsites%2Fmarkadomanis%2F2012%2F07%2F26%2Frussias-economy-is-not-in-decline%2F&h=643&w=1153&tbnid=BGWgiqLR7dbq6M%3A&zoom=1&docid=MN4EjSd4EL8ClM&ei=0FdgU-qTKaiy2gXgpYGgAw&tbm=isch&client=firefox-a&ved=0CFcQMygDMAM&iact=rc&uact=3&dur=1189&page=1&start=0&ndsp=30) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547.md?page=2)