# Is Martin Armstrong a fraud/conspiracy theorist? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [June 21, 2013, 10:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547 "2013-06-21T10:25:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2014, 12:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/21 "2014-04-30T12:26:44Z")
> [@M11111](#): > > _“Yes the Cycles of War are due to turn up in 2014. But this will most likely begin with the rise of internal separatism and civil unrest. True this model pinpointed World War I, World War II, Vietnam all spot on. This time, it is primarily focused in the West/Middle East rather than Asia. The real risk remains Russia. We will be reviewing this year the Cycles of War on a detailed basis since the last report was published in 1986. There appear to be some surprises ahead. War has been a fairly regular pastime of mankind, but it ALWAYS is linked to economics.”_ This is a rather nonspecific prediction (the “West/Middle East”) covers a **lot** of ground, and you could just as easily say that the guy missed the ramping up of tensions surrounding China and its territorial ambitions in Asia. As another poster said, one can make a raft of predictions and then emphasize the ones that at least in part seemed to come true, while ignoring all the losers. I’ve seen this before with other “financial gurus” who want you to subscribe to their newsletters or buy their books (“So–and-so predicted the X Crisis and the Y Deceleration! He’s a genius!”). Near as I can tell, these geniuses are making their money selling predictions, not by investing to take advantage of their second sight. ---
**Author:** ![M11111](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/3be4f8/32.png) [@M11111](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/M11111)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2014, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/22 "2014-04-30T16:11:06Z")
> [@Jackmannii](#): > > This is a rather nonspecific prediction (the “West/Middle East”) covers a **lot** of ground, and you could just as easily say that the guy missed the ramping up of tensions surrounding China and its territorial ambitions in Asia. > > As another poster said, one can make a raft of predictions and then emphasize the ones that at least in part seemed to come true, while ignoring all the losers. I’ve seen this before with other “financial gurus” who want you to subscribe to their newsletters or buy their books (“So–and-so predicted the X Crisis and the Y Deceleration! He’s a genius!”). > > Near as I can tell, these geniuses are making their money selling predictions, not by investing to take advantage of their second sight. This was just one small paragraph summing up a much longer report. China border tensions have been mentioned. Also don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying he is perfect, but I do believe he is better than most other economist. Plus he keeps getting compared to financial gurus. That’s not what Armstrong is about. He has no long sales video talking about how hes the guy who predicted this and that and you can protect your family for only $300 per month. He just has a free blog. Even his market predictors are free. The only thing for sale is the seminars, which I went to one back in 2012. It was top notch, he did not cheap out on the food or anything. I’m not a marxist, and I don’t believe people should do free seminars. …And when they do, it’s probably a time share pitch. ---
**Author:** ![naita](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naita/32/5862_2.png) [@naita](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/naita)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2014, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/23 "2014-04-30T17:09:17Z")
> [@M11111](#): > > He just has a free blog. Even his market predictors are free. The only thing for sale is the seminars, which I went to one back in 2012. It was top notch, he did not cheap out on the food or anything. I’m not a marxist, and I don’t believe people should do free seminars. …And when they do, it’s probably a time share pitch. Yeah, only the seminars, oh and: > [@](#): > > Special Reports & Market Forecasting Reports > DVDs of Past Conferences > Training DVDs > Ancient Coins for a Piece of History > Ancient Coins Custom crafted by hand into Jewelry for Men & Women > **[Store | Armstrong Economics](https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/store/)** > > Supernatural side roads - the Mayan Discovery of Time - What the 2012 Turning Point Really Means (by Martin Armstrong) Precious Metals Outlook for 2012 & ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2014, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/24 "2014-04-30T17:36:27Z")
> [@M11111](#): > > He just has a free blog. Even his market predictors are free. The only thing for sale is the seminars, which I went to one back in 2012. It was top notch, he did not cheap out on the food or anything So what? A pitch man is still a pitch man. Go to a super market. You’ll sometimes see free samples. You’ll also see loss leaders - items given out at below cost to attract business and produce an overall profit from sales of other goods. The free stuff are samples and loss leaders to attract customers to the main money maker - the seminars, DVDs, and other ancillary income streams. As for not “cheaping out”, you spend money to make money. “Cheaping out” costs him money in the long run, so he doesn’t do it. This is hardly a new concept. I wouldn’t buy from a luxury car dealership that didn’t kiss my ass and treat me right, either, even if I accepted a lower quality experience from a used car dealer. Same principle. You want to make luxury money on a continuing basis, you provide a luxury experience. I still haven’t seen anything that isn’t analogous to soothsaying. Confirmation bias all over the place. Inaccuracies ignored and vague “predictions” stretched to the point of meaninglessness. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2014, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/25 "2014-04-30T18:01:58Z")
OK, so he predicted that Russia would be a problem in the Middle East, not in the West or in Asia. Ukraine is not, so far as I can tell, anywhere near the Middle East. Thus, his prediction is wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2014, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/26 "2014-04-30T23:17:19Z")
> [@M11111](#): > > He called Russia as the problem. At the time Russia was very docile and now it’s over a year later, and Putin has managed to invade the Ukraine and confuse the rest of the world into thinking, it’s not really an invasion. Amazing. Was Russia being “docile” when it invaded South Ossetia in 2008? Or during the two Chechan wars? Or the _last_ time it tried to interfere in Ukranian politics by poisoning the prime minister? ---
**Author:** ![M11111](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/3be4f8/32.png) [@M11111](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/M11111)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2014, 5:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/27 "2014-05-01T05:59:48Z")
> [@naita](#): > > Yeah, only the seminars, oh and: > [Store | Armstrong Economics](http://armstrongeconomics.com/store/store/) Yes I see your point, if something is for sale, it must be a scam. However I’m curious… Have you read any of his work? Or did you just search the site for stuff he is selling? ---
**Author:** ![M11111](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/3be4f8/32.png) [@M11111](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/M11111)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2014, 6:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/28 "2014-05-01T06:00:49Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > Was Russia being “docile” when it invaded South Ossetia in 2008? Or during the two Chechan wars? Or the _last_ time it tried to interfere in Ukranian politics by poisoning the prime minister? Compared to the violence the US accomplished, yes. ---
**Author:** ![M11111](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/3be4f8/32.png) [@M11111](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/M11111)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2014, 6:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/29 "2014-05-01T06:04:10Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > OK, so he predicted that Russia would be a problem in the Middle East, not in the West or in Asia. Ukraine is not, so far as I can tell, anywhere near the Middle East. Thus, his prediction is wrong. Again, that paragraph was a simple summary of his work. To find the truth, it’s best if you read his archives yourself. It’s all on his site, nothing is edited later, and nothing is hidden. There are hundreds maybe thousands of articles that have been written in the last year and a half. ---
**Author:** ![M11111](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/3be4f8/32.png) [@M11111](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/M11111)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2014, 6:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/30 "2014-05-01T06:22:43Z")
> [@Great\_Antibob](#): > > So what? A pitch man is still a pitch man. > > Go to a super market. You’ll sometimes see free samples. You’ll also see loss leaders - items given out at below cost to attract business and produce an overall profit from sales of other goods. > > The free stuff are samples and loss leaders to attract customers to the main money maker - the seminars, DVDs, and other ancillary income streams. As for not “cheaping out”, you spend money to make money. “Cheaping out” costs him money in the long run, so he doesn’t do it. This is hardly a new concept. I wouldn’t buy from a luxury car dealership that didn’t kiss my ass and treat me right, either, even if I accepted a lower quality experience from a used car dealer. Same principle. You want to make luxury money on a continuing basis, you provide a luxury experience. > > I still haven’t seen anything that isn’t analogous to soothsaying. Confirmation bias all over the place. Inaccuracies ignored and vague “predictions” stretched to the point of meaninglessness. One of reasons I trust Armstrong is because he does not optimize the revenue he is making. Here’s an example of a company optimizing the revenue of their customers. [http://stansberryresearch.com/products/](http://stansberryresearch.com/products/) Notice they have dozens of products, most if not all are subscription based. Recurring monthly newsletters. And they have appropriately named them: True Wealth, Small Stock Specialist, Retirement Millionaire. Gee one might think they could rich if they could just afford a couple of those newsletters. Divide and conquer… or Divide your service up and Bill more. If you’re solely out to make money, there are beter ways then putting on seminars. Again, I’m not debating Armstrong is perfect, only that he is better source of information than most. ---
**Author:** ![naita](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naita/32/5862_2.png) [@naita](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/naita)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2014, 7:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/31 "2014-05-01T07:08:31Z")
> [@M11111](#): > > Yes I see your point, if something is for sale, it must be a scam. > > However I’m curious… Have you read any of his work? Or did you just search the site for stuff he is selling? Did I say it was evidence for a scam? No. I merely rebutted your argument “He just has a free blog. Even his market predictors are free. The only thing for sale is the seminars”, which did appear to claim that since he’s only selling his seminars, he’s legit. But when someone writes and sells a book on 2012, and doesn’t even remove it from their web page afterwards, I’m going to apply the tool of prejudice and save myself the time require to dig for their nuggets of sanity. ---
**Author:** ![Smeghead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f1d935/32.png) [@Smeghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smeghead)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2014, 9:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/32 "2014-05-01T09:13:03Z")
> [@M11111](#): > > Yes I see your point, if something is for sale, it must be a scam. No, the fact that he’s claiming to predict the future means it must be a scam. The fact that he’s trying to make money off it just reduces his credibility further. ---
**Author:** ![Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/budget_player_cadet/32/205_2.png) [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Budget_Player_Cadet)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2014, 11:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/33 "2014-05-01T11:09:46Z")
Personally, I don’t care how many pseudo-accurate predictions a guy makes - if he also claims that he made a self-aware computer that government agents took to WTC7 (and then proceeds to go full truther on that as well), he’s a lunatic. In this case, his predictions are overtly vague, often wrong, and completely unimpressive. He’s got a track record reminiscent of the bible. Half of what he’s saying could be found out through basic pattern recognition, and the rest is either wrong or so rare that it might as well be coincidence. And I love how you make excuses for how his predictions were vague and wrong by pointing out that russia was peaceful… _in comparison to the USA_. Well yeah, and the USA was peaceful in comparison to the West Bank. Give it a rest. ---
**Author:** ![M11111](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/3be4f8/32.png) [@M11111](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/M11111)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2014, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/34 "2014-05-01T16:19:29Z")
> [@Smeghead](#): > > No, the fact that he’s claiming to predict the future means it must be a scam. The fact that he’s trying to make money off it just reduces his credibility further. I’m not sure if he has ever actually claimed to predict the future. Mostly he says if you look through history, you can find similar situations to what’s going on in the modern world and that will help you get an idea of what could happen next. …This is because it’s human to nature tends to be the same… we have to learn from mistakes, rather than the experience of others. ---
**Author:** ![M11111](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/3be4f8/32.png) [@M11111](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/M11111)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2014, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/35 "2014-05-01T16:24:35Z")
> [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](#): > > Personally, I don’t care how many pseudo-accurate predictions a guy makes - if he also claims that he made a self-aware computer that government agents took to WTC7 (and then proceeds to go full truther on that as well), he’s a lunatic. In this case, his predictions are overtly vague, often wrong, and completely unimpressive. He’s got a track record reminiscent of the bible. Half of what he’s saying could be found out through basic pattern recognition, and the rest is either wrong or so rare that it might as well be coincidence. And I love how you make excuses for how his predictions were vague and wrong by pointing out that russia was peaceful… _in comparison to the USA_. Well yeah, and the USA was peaceful in comparison to the West Bank. Give it a rest. Yeah that part is pretty sketchy I agree. However he also holds the record for the most amount of time in jail without ever actually being convicted for a crime. Which can be verified. So it makes you wonder, what did he do? How does one get locked up for 11 years without ever getting convicted? ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2014, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/36 "2014-05-01T16:34:57Z")
> [@M11111](#): > > However he also holds the record for the most amount of time in jail without ever actually being convicted for a crime. Which can be verified. So it makes you wonder, what did he do? How does one get locked up for 11 years without ever getting convicted? > **[Martin A. Armstrong](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_A._Armstrong#Criminal_conviction)** > > Martin Arthur Armstrong (born November 1, 1949) is an American self-taught economic forecaster and convicted felon who spent 11 years in jail for cheating investors out of $700 million and hiding $15 million in assets from regulators. > At age thirteen, Armstrong began working at a coin and stamp dealership in Pennsauken, New Jersey. At age fifteen he bought a bag of rare Canadian pennies that for a brief period would have made him a millionaire, had he sold them before they crashed in value. Af... > [@](#): > > On September 29, 1999, Armstrong was indicted in the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York for fraud by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, for having conspired with employees of Republic New York involving Japanese investors. Republic New York pleaded guilty to fraud in federal court on December 17, 2001 and agreed upon a restitution order on January 9, 2002 of $606 million. Armstrong represented himself and was excluded from some proceedings, leading the Associated Press to question whether Armstrong could get a fair trial. The government charged Armstrong with civil contempt and he remained in prison over 7 years for failure to surrender various assets that may have been purchased with money from the investment fund at the center of the litigation. According to the New York Times, “Over the years, Judge Owen would revisit the contempt order every 18 months, guided by the federal statute. He repeatedly said that Mr. Armstrong was motivated by greed and was awaiting his release from jail to retrieve the $15 million that the government said was missing. According to lawyers who worked on the case in the early days, the financier’s headstrong manner irritated Judge Owen almost immediately.” On August 17, 2006, he pleaded guilty to one count of conspiracy. He was sentenced on April 10, 2007, to five years in prison. Armstrong’s daughter, Victoria, paid her father visits in prison most Wednesdays. He was released from prison on September 2, 2011. Fraud, civil contempt, and conspiracy. He hid assets from a civil settlement and pled guilty to conspiracy. It’s all pretty clear. ---
**Author:** ![Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/budget_player_cadet/32/205_2.png) [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Budget_Player_Cadet)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2014, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/37 "2014-05-01T18:04:41Z")
> [@M11111](#): > > Yeah that part is pretty sketchy I agree. > > However he also holds the record for the most amount of time in jail without ever actually being convicted for a crime. Which can be verified. So it makes you wonder, what did he do? How does one get locked up for 11 years without ever getting convicted? …I don’t know the first thing about this guy and it took me all of about 15 seconds to find exactly what his conviction was for. And even if you were right about there being no conviction, that _still_ isn’t any kind of record. We’ve got POWs who were imprisoned for decades after the war ended simply for the crime of not speaking russian in a mental ward. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2014, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/38 "2014-05-01T19:21:56Z")
Sounds just a bit like Asimov’s “Psychohistory” to me. ---
**Author:** ![Lookjn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/258eb7/32.png) [@Lookjn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lookjn)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2018, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/40 "2018-08-02T21:01:14Z")
I dont believe in computer modeling, especially about it being able to tell the future …as in climate science there are to many factors especially unknown factors …to be able to tell the future . Further I do not like Armstrongs writing …my bullshit meter is continually going off as I read his stuf …the logic is not there . I think Armstrong some kind of disjnformation guy…he talks some truth znd some bs ---
**Author:** ![Tim\_T-Bonham.net](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/46a35a/32.png) [@Tim\_T-Bonham.net](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tim_T-Bonham.net)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2018, 6:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547/41 "2018-08-03T06:15:25Z")
> [@Alba](#): > > He has had correspondence with the US government about serious finance issues he foresaw. And which of the 4.2 million US Government employees has he “had correspondence” with? All of them? I have never heard of this guy, and know nothing about him. But just seeing vague, uncheckable statements like this given as ‘credentials’ pings my BS meter. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-martin-armstrong-a-fraud-conspiracy-theorist/661547.md?page=3)