# Is McCain forked yet? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 25, 2008, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604 "2008-05-25T23:58:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![Anomalous\_Reading](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b3f665/32.png) [@Anomalous\_Reading](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anomalous_Reading)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2008, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/201 "2008-07-11T22:47:39Z")
Missteps of close associates aren’t helping him at all. Gramm’s only the most recent. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2008, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/202 "2008-07-11T22:49:45Z")
[QUOTE=Merijeek] Gosh, I hope he doesn’t flop prematurely. Obama may never recover from that. -Joe [/QUOTE] He may flip before he flops. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2008, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/203 "2008-07-11T23:06:24Z")
Meanwhile [Newsweek](http://www.newsweek.com/id/145556) is back down from their 15 Obama lead to a mere 3 (44 to 41) while [Gallup](http://www.gallup.com/poll/108772/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Holds-6Point-Lead-Over-McCain.aspx) has his lead growing to 6! Remember that when Newsweek released Obama up by 15 Gallup was calling it tied? Polling does not seem to be an exact science. Still the 3 to 6 seems to the consistent mean of the polls and that is far far from forked. Kerry was up by 3 per Newsweek at this point too. ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2008, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/204 "2008-07-11T23:18:31Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] Still the 3 to 6 seems to the consistent mean of the polls and that is far far from forked. [/QUOTE] Not necessarily. As Gallup has said before (and I confirmed via a question in GQ), a _consistent_ difference over a period of time is very significant indeed, and may even effectively nullify the MOE. > [@](#): > > Kerry was up by 3 per Newsweek at this point too. But he had the same weak support that McCain has now. Obama’s support strength is closer to Bush’s at that time. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2008, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/205 "2008-07-11T23:24:46Z")
It’s probably been brought up, but McCain [had a week that should have ended his presidential run](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/max-bergmann/the-week-that-should-have_b_111983.html). ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2008, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/206 "2008-07-11T23:28:33Z")
Wow. It reads like an idictment. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2008, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/207 "2008-07-11T23:48:38Z")
[QUOTE=Liberal] Wow. It reads like an idictment. [/QUOTE] It really does. I can’t imagine being a happy and upbeat Republican when it comes to how I feel about my candidate. ---
**Author:** ![Anomalous\_Reading](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b3f665/32.png) [@Anomalous\_Reading](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anomalous_Reading)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2008, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/208 "2008-07-11T23:59:22Z")
The Republicans made the mistake this election cycle, that the Democrats made in the last Presidential cycle. They decided too early and on “their man.” He wasn’t vetted well. People were voting brand over substance. I’m not sure the Republicans had a more viable candidate. Even so… a longer battle might have helped. I think Republicans are discontent, discouraged, and looking for someone with a real platform. It will take a while for that to happen. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2008, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/209 "2008-07-12T00:08:43Z")
[QUOTE=Anomalous Reading] The Republicans made the mistake this election cycle, that the Democrats made in the last Presidential cycle. They decided too early and on “their man.” He wasn’t vetted well. People were voting brand over substance. I’m not sure the Republicans had a more viable candidate. Even so… a longer battle might have helped. I think Republicans are discontent, discouraged, and looking for someone with a real platform. It will take a while for that to happen. [/QUOTE] Well, they also ran into (what I keep hearing is) the second coming of JFK. Do the Republicans have a rising star in their folds? ---
**Author:** ![ArizonaTeach](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/45deac/32.png) [@ArizonaTeach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ArizonaTeach)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2008, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/210 "2008-07-12T00:24:12Z")
[QUOTE=Anomalous Reading] The Republicans made the mistake this election cycle, that the Democrats made in the last Presidential cycle. They decided too early and on “their man.” He wasn’t vetted well. People were voting brand over substance. I’m not sure the Republicans had a more viable candidate. Even so… a longer battle might have helped. I think Republicans are discontent, discouraged, and looking for someone with a real platform. It will take a while for that to happen. [/QUOTE] You are revising history. One year ago, McCain was being written off. As late as January, people were predicting a possible [brokered Republican convention](http://davideisenthal.typepad.com/the_eisenthal_report/2008/01/a-brokered-repu.html). Also [here](http://www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com/archives/13477.html) an [here.](http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/01/15/a_brokered_convention_consider.html) On the other hand, Hillary was supposed to cruise into the Democratic nomination. Cut to a month or so ago, and Democrats were in arms because their candidate hadn’t been decided yet! And now, your line is that the Republicans decided too early? And McCain hasn’t been **vetted**? ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2008, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/211 "2008-07-12T00:26:02Z")
[QUOTE=ArizonaTeach] You are revising history. One year ago, McCain was being written off. As late as January, people were predicting a possible [brokered Republican convention](http://davideisenthal.typepad.com/the_eisenthal_report/2008/01/a-brokered-repu.html). Also [here](http://www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com/archives/13477.html) an [here.](http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/01/15/a_brokered_convention_consider.html) On the other hand, Hillary was supposed to cruise into the Democratic nomination. Cut to a month or so ago, and Democrats were in arms because their candidate hadn’t been decided yet! And now, your line is that the Republicans decided too early? And McCain hasn’t been **vetted**? [/QUOTE] That’s a very good point. I think his point might have been that the current climate determines what’s “too early” or “too late”. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2008, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/212 "2008-07-13T17:16:57Z")
[QUOTE=Anomalous Reading] Missteps of close associates aren’t helping him at all. [/QUOTE] Where are the choruses about how Gramm wasn’t actually a formal campaign official, and anyway McCain dumped him as soon as he said it? ---
**Author:** ![stolichnaya](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bcef8e/32.png) [@stolichnaya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/stolichnaya)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2008, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/213 "2008-07-13T17:51:39Z")
Sorry, I was out late last night. ::clears throat:: Gramm wasn’t actually a formal campaign official, and anyway McCain dumped him as soon as it seemed like people didn’t like what he said. So this is just as big or small a deal as when a similar thing happened to anyone who is a politician. To me, Gramm’s comments are indicative of what Gramm thinks, and not what McCain thinks, because we all know that McCain really has no thoughts on the economy beyond saying things like “Phil Gramm trusts me on the economy, so you should too”. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2008, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/214 "2008-07-13T19:17:22Z")
[QUOTE=Liberal] Wow. It reads like an idictment. [/QUOTE] Yes. A very stupid, partisan indictment. Anyone who think that that list of minor issues and non-issues is a candidacy killer has been drinking too much kool-aid. Let’s go down the list: \*\* 1. McCain unambiguously called Social Security “an absolute disgrace.”\*\* And it is - in the sense that it’s not properly funded, that money that is supposed to go into it is spent on general funding, and that it’s completely unbalanced in the sense that current retirees will get back many times their investment, while young people would get far more if they invested the same money privately. McCain’s been talking about this for more than a decade, and people generally like what he’s saying. Al Gore said the same thing. Remember the ‘lock box’? **2. McCain’s top economic policy adviser calls Americans a bunch of “whiners” for being worried about the slumping economy.** Poor wording, for sure. But he’s right in the sense that the amount of bitching and whining about the economy is way out of whack compared against the absolute performance of the economy, which has actually been pretty good for the last six years, and isn’t even in recession right now. The middle class saw a huge increase in their net weath due to the real estate run-up (prices are still way above where they were five years ago). Unemployment, inflation, and interest rates are all still very low. Americans have the highest per-capita incomes of any country other than Luxembourg. They have a very high standard of living, and the U.S. has had one of the best economies in the world over the past ten years. Yet the handwringing and gloom and doom has been going on throughout most of Bush’s tenure. \*\* 3. Iraqi leaders call for a timetable for U.S. withdrawal, McCain gets caught in a bizarre denial and flip flop.\*\* Oh, nonsense. The statement by the Iraqis caught McCain off-guard, and he (correctly) said it’s probably just political posturing. At no point was there a formal demand from the Iraqis that the U.S. withdraw, and in fact the Iraqis are already backing off that statement. There’s nothing there to indicate that if the Iraqis officially voted on and passed a bill demanding that the U.S. withdraw that McCain wouldn’t comply if he was president. This is a manufactured outrage of interest only to readers of the Huffington post and Daily Kos and the SDMB. **4. McCain’s economic plan to cut the deficit has no details and is simply not believable.** This one’s a killer, because Americans would NEVER elect someone with an unrealistic plan to eliminate the deficit… By the way, has Obama acknowledged that his plans will cost an additional 200-300 billion dollars per year, which would double the deficit if he doesn’t hike taxes to match? **5. McCain’s deficit plan includes bringing the troops home represents a major Iraq flip-flop.** No it does not. McCain has always said what Bush has said - he opposes a timetable for withdrawal, and believes that troops should only be withdrawn when conditions on the ground warrant it. But it’s sure looking like conditions on the ground are warranting a partial withdrawal, so it’s perfectly reasonable to include that savings in a budget. If the conditions change, the withdrawal doesn’t happen. But thats’ the same as any other budget forecast - you budget for the likely course, and reality sometimes gets in the way. But McCain has good reason to believe the war is going to wind down in his first term - Even the Bush Administration is now considering [accelerating a withdrawal](http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/07/13/america/13military.php). This was what McCain said all along - that you don’t withdrawal in defeat because you’re handed some setbacks, as Obama wanted to do. You win the war, then you go home with your head up, leaving a stable country behind. This is a point in his favor not against. Expect to hear McCain make this argument soon: “No one wants war. But my opponent wanted to recklessly disengage when the going was tough. This would have caused a collapse of the country, and we’d be back in there right now taking heavy casualties trying to restabilize Iraq. I said that we needed to stay and finish the job so that we could go home permanently. And that’s exactly what we’re doing. My friends, if you’re against the war, think this through - had we listened to Senator Obama, we’d be in the middle of a civil war now, and possible a larger middle east conflict. But the surge I advocated worked, and now we are bringing our soldiers home with their heads up, and with the Iraqi people as friends.” **6. McCain campaign misled about economists support.** You’ve got to be kidding me. So 300 economists signed a letter giving support to McCain, who has published his economic plans on his web site long before the letter was signed. So now he says that 300 economists support his plan, and some of them go, “wait a minute - we support McCain, but we don’t know all the details on this particular plan yet.” This is a candidacy-ending scandal? On what planet? And BTW, presidents have been using such appeals to authority by collecting lists of supporters since the Presidency existed. Do you think every one who has ever signed a letter of support studied every detail of every plan the candidate offered? \*\*McCain makes a joke about killing Iranians. \*\* Oh, horrors. The guy has a sense of humor, and said something a little over the line. Yes, I remember when the “In five minutes we start bombing the Soviet Union” comment brought down the Reagan Administration. Uttered in public, during the height of the cold war. Oh, wait - it didn’t. In fact, it didn’t hurt Reagan at all. People understand jokes. **McCain denies, flatly, that he ever said that he is not an expert in economics.** So in the one clip they offer, McCain denies that he said he wasn’t an expert in economics. The clip shown to refute this shows McCain saying that he’s not an expert on Wall Street, and defers to the secretary of the Treasury. “Wall Street” \<\> “Economics.” They are not remotely the same thing. There are plenty of Ph.D. economists who could not tell you the ins and outs of various derivative instruments or tax laws or regulatory management of financial institutions. McCain may have said that someone else, but the clips they have don’t make the case they’re making. And by the way, even if they did catch him in direct conflict, so what? This happens _all the time_. It’s already happened a couple of times to Obama. Candidates have to talk for hours a day. They say things sometimes that they forget. It’s not a big deal unless you’re a partisan trying to score points. This will have exactly zero effect on the election, let alone end McCain’s campaign. \*\* McCain distorts his record on veterans benefits in response to a question from Vietnam Veteran, who then proceeds to call McCain out on it.\*\* This is the one thing on the list that could actually hurt McCain, if Obama can find a way to play it without looking like he’s attacking McCain’s military service. However, McCain is right in saying that he’s got the vast majority of support from various veterans and military groups, and Obama has to be really careful if he goes down that road, or he may find himself facing down similar attacks from other veterans groups, and I’m not sure he can win that exchange. McCain is loved by many soldiers and ex-soldiers, and they’ll go to bat for him. \*\*McCain demonstrates he knows nothing about Afghanistan and Pakistan. \*\* What an idiotic comment. Here’s the full transcript of what McCain said - tell me if you think this sounds like something who ‘knows nothing’ about the region: > [@](#): > > McCain: It’s interesting you mention that. I met the NATO ambassador from Pakistan to the United States this morning, a very interesting person who also spent time in prison himself for his political stance. The situation in Afghanistan is very, very tough today, and it will remain tough for quite a period of time. And one of the major areas of concern is generated by what goes on in Pakistan. Afghanistan, of course, Karzai is not effective as we want him to be. There’s corruption, there’s a number of issues concerning Afghanistan. But in Pakistan, as we know, Faustian bargains have been entered into with groups along the Pakistan, Afghan border, Waziristan, etc. And it has now become a safe haven for Taliban and others. So this is going to be a very difficult situation, and I don’t have to tell you again, because you have been there most recently, the instance of violence attacks, etc., continue to go up, particularly in those areas. I think there’s a whole lot of things that need to be done. We can talk about the NATO command structure, the relationships between the different militaries and we can talk about a number of things, but a lot of it is going to depend on our relationship with Pakistan. And they haven’t sorted that out yet, as you know. What’s going to happen with Musharraf, the reappointment of the judges… . And as much as I respect the country of Pakistan, a lot of times the parties are identified with individuals rather than anything else. I’m insulting your intelligence by reminding you of all these things. I think it’s going to require a lot of diplomacy, it’s going to require a lot of hard work, it’s going to require a lot of ideological work and it’s going to require a lot of economic diplomatic intelligence and others, including human intelligence. So I guess my answer to you is the reports you are getting are correct, and we’re going to have to try as well as we can to work as closely as we can (with) the Pakistani government. We have to not only appeal to their better angels of their nature, but we also have to appeal to them to recognize that their national security interests over time are at stake here. If the Taliban succeeds in Afghanistan, sooner or later it’s going to have a significant – a greater influence on the situation in Pakistan as well. I think, you know, sometimes things happen in history that change the whole course of history. I think the assassination of Benazir Bhutto was a tragic event not only from a personal standpoint but it threw everything into a – a tumultuous situation which they still haven’t sorted out, as you well know. And I’m sorry that’s a long answer, but I didn’t cover nearly all of the challenge we face in the Afghan, Pakistan situation. And I wonder, given the time you spent there, whether you disagree with that assessment, just out of curiosity. > > Trib: Some have talked also about setting up, like, coordination between Afghanistan and Pakistan, having direct links between villages, you know things like that, along the border especially between the U.S., Afghanistan and Pakistan. > > McCain: I think so, since the Taliban and others do not respect borders. I think if there is some good news, I think that there is a glimmer of improving relationship between Karzai and the Pakistanis. There was a personal animosity between Musharraf and Karzai, as you know, that also complicated it a bit. It’s very, very tough. As to the specific ‘glimmer of improving relationship’, I’m not sure what he’s talking about, as I’ve seen no evidence of it. But McCain was just in the region, so maybe he’s hearing stuff from commanders on the ground who are seeing something that hasn’t made it into the papers yet, or he’s putting a positive spin on some very minor detail. In any event, no one cares about this statement, it certainly is not an indication that McCain is ignorant of the facts in the area (the quote above indicates he knows exactly how tough it is and where the problems are), and no one outside the Huffington Post is going to care one little bit about this. And if McCain and Obama go toe-to-toe debating military matters and strategy and comparing knowledge of what the military is doing, Obama’s going to get his clock cleaned. McCain graduated from Annapolis and went to the War College, and actually fought in a war, and is the ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee. His knowledge of military matters makes Obama look silly, and Obama would do well to avoid these kinds of comparisons. ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2008, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/215 "2008-07-13T19:39:02Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] Where are the choruses about how Gramm wasn’t actually a formal campaign official, and anyway McCain dumped him as soon as he said it? [/QUOTE] Phil Gramm is still Co-Chair of the McCain campaign, a position he has held since March 12, 2007. ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2008, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/216 "2008-07-13T20:25:01Z")
Incidentally, I believe it is significant that Obama has reacted very conservatively to this Gramm fuck up. It is certainly the kind of thing that could be hammered and hammered for a lot of points. But upon reflection, and given the considerable wisdom and mental maturity he has demonstrated throughout this campaign, I can see why it would be better if Obama did not push things to the point that Gramm is released. As much of a good target as he makes right now, he will be the perfect target come the fall, when ads will still be able to tag him as the Co-Chair of McCain’s campaign. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2008, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/217 "2008-07-13T20:29:33Z")
Is that a sign of “wisdom and mental maturity” or just a recognition of the political reality that it would remind people of his own comparable problem not so very long ago? **stoli** is aware of the reference; you should be too. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2008, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/218 "2008-07-13T20:30:23Z")
Gramm is toast, as far as McCain’s campaign is concerned. Expect him to be gone this week (if not already). ---
**Author:** ![samclem](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@samclem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/samclem)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2008, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/219 "2008-07-13T21:28:50Z")
[QUOTE=Sam Stone] **2. McCain’s top economic policy adviser calls Americans a bunch of “whiners” for being worried about the slumping economy.** Poor wording, for sure. But he’s right in the sense that the amount of bitching and whining about the economy is way out of whack compared against the absolute performance of the economy, which has actually been pretty good for the last six years, and isn’t even in recession right now. The middle class saw a huge increase in their net weath due to the real estate run-up (prices are still way above where they were five years ago). Unemployment, inflation, and interest rates are all still very low. Americans have the highest per-capita incomes of any country other than Luxembourg. They have a very high standard of living, and the U.S. has had one of the best economies in the world over the past ten years. Yet the handwringing and gloom and doom has been going on throughout most of Bush’s tenure. [/quote] Sam. You don’t live in the US. You’ve seen your purchasing power advance by about 50% in the last 5-6 years, vis-a-vis the Canadian/US Dollar relationship. If you live in the US, and are a typical middle/lower class Amercan(making $20-50,000/yr.) then you’ve seen your standard of living plunge the last few years. The press reports which say the economy isn’t in recession are only talking about the classic definition. Come on down and talk to real people who have to drive to work, seeing their fuel component increase double. And, the increases in food/other prices has just started. It’ll get worse as the year goes on, as the costs get passed along. Believe me, it’s happening. I don’t care a whit about the economy the “last six years.” The US is in a recession, headed for a bad one currently. Just keep reading the headlines. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2008, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/220 "2008-07-18T15:08:05Z")
Let’s play it this way - given the current polling, which states does McCain need to pull off to secure a victory? [DemConWatch](http://www.demconwatchblog.com/search/label/Presidential%20Forecast) has a nice interactive of the various pollsters and projectors electoral maps. According to that summary the most generous to McCain is [Rasmussen’s,](http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update) which gives a current prediction of 227 McCain to 293 Obama in their summary. So let’s use that one. Going to Rasmussen directly you find that they call it 42 “safe” McCain, 123 “likely”, 62 “leans”. Assume that McCain wins all of those, including all the “leans” and assume he wins both of those that Rasmussen calls “toss-up” as well, another 18, and we get McCain up to 245. He still needs another 25 out of those currently called “leans Dem”. That could be OH plus NM or IA or CO. Or it could be MI plus CO. Or OH plus MI of course. Or winning PA and most anything else. Without winning any of PA, OH, or MI he’d need all 4 of the other “leans Dem” to fall his way (CO, IA, NM, and NH). Of those PA and MI are pretty unlikely but OH seems possible (I don’t even understand why Rasmussen doesn’t call it a “toss-up” if they go by their own numbers - their polling places it as about even). So to go with OH he needs IA, NM, or CO. IA seems out of reach at this point (Obama is 10 ahead in Rasmussen polling). So McCain also needs CO and/or NM. That’s quite a run of the table: don’t let any leaning your way slip to the other side, win the toss-ups, _and_ pull off OH _plus_ a Hispanic heavy state while current polling puts Hispanic support 2 to 1 against you and Hispanic turnout has been heavy in the Dem primaries. Yes, lots can change. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604.md?page=12)