# Is McCain forked yet? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 25, 2008, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604 "2008-05-25T23:58:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![stolichnaya](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bcef8e/32.png) [@stolichnaya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/stolichnaya)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2008, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/221 "2008-07-18T16:16:55Z")
It’s an incredibly anemic campaign at the moment- and I don’t think that this is all my native bias telling me that (though I’ll allow for the possibility). Not many are paying attention now, but if I was a McCain fan, I would be hoping that they get their act together by mid-August. McCain is enjoying a certain lack of scrutiny that I would not want to rely on forever. To an extent, he has earned some benefit of the doubt, but I think he’s seriously abusing his favored nation status with the press. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2008, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/222 "2008-07-18T20:20:22Z")
Continuing his respectful, non-attack approach to campaigning, today [McCain insinuated that Obama is a socialist:](http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/07/18/mccain-%e2%80%9ci-don%e2%80%99t-know%e2%80%9d-if-obama-is-socialist/) > [@](#): > > During his town hall meeting with voters in Kansas City yesterday, McCain said, “Senator Obama has the most extreme record of any member of the United States Senate.” > > In an interview after the event, The Kansas City Star asked him to clarify the remark. > > “His voting record … is more to the left than the announced socialist in the United States Senate, Bernie Sanders of Vermont,” McCain answered, according the paper. > > Asked if he thought Obama was a socialist, McCain answered: “I don’t know. All I know is his voting record, and that’s what people usually judge their elected representatives by.” Oh, Johnnie, Johnnie, you really don’t want people to start looking at _your_ voting history. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2008, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/223 "2008-07-18T23:52:11Z")
> [@](#): > > “His voting record … is more to the left than the announced socialist in the United States Senate, Bernie Sanders of Vermont,” McCain answered, according the paper. The [ADA](http://www.adaction.org/media/votingrecords/2007.pdf), at least for 2007, disagrees: Obama scored 75%, and Sanders 95%. And I must say, I think that using “socialism” in place of “communism” is not going to work as well as the Republicans might think. The country is overdue for a swing to the left. Washington swings like a pendulum do . . . Permanent majority, anyone? 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Oy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/bc8723/32.png) [@Oy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oy)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2008, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/224 "2008-07-21T15:29:22Z")
[Totally Off Topic] **Dseid** , upon further research, it turns out I have in fact finally devoped three crinkles on my right side when I smile very broadly. None on my left. So I am now apparently officially half smiling for real. [/Totally Off Topic] ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2008, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/225 "2008-07-21T15:37:59Z")
I expect McCain to start slamming Obama over hs failure to visit to the Iraq-Pakiston border, its non-existence notwithstanding. [http://thinkprogress.org/2008/07/21/mccain-warns-of-hard-struggle-on-the-iraq-pakistan-border/](http://thinkprogress.org/2008/07/21/mccain-warns-of-hard-struggle-on-the-iraq-pakistan-border/) …chortle, snicker, giggle…What a maroon! ---
**Author:** ![5\_time\_champ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/5/278dde/32.png) [@5\_time\_champ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/5_time_champ)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2008, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/226 "2008-07-21T15:51:56Z")
Well, maybe after he “Bomb, bomb, bombs- Iran” there will be. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2008, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/227 "2008-07-22T00:51:38Z")
**Oy** , glad you’ve found your “real” smile! Back to sharpening the tines … Apparently McCain’s Michigan tour [didn’t go so well.](http://detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080721/OPINION03/807210326) > [@](#): > > How does it make political sense, then, for McCain to swoop in, do a 180 in the name of “federalism” and punt on the national emissions standard that Detroit (and, truth be told, Toyota and the others) desperately want and that he once said he supported? > It doesn’t. Even Sen. Barack Obama, whose sharp, tough-love rhetoric for Detroit has softened and grown more realistic as the campaign lengthens, has the smarts to support state-by-state emissions standards only if a national standard is deemed insufficient. Meaning the Illinois Democrat gets the benefit of mollifying his friends on the coasts while showing a little Midwestern love for the autos. > Is that so hard to understand? Apparently not for Obama, who scored points last week with auto execs because he and his campaign at least look like they’re paying as much attention to corporate pressures as to the plights of auto workers. But wait! [Rasmussen says it’s now a near tie!](http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll) > [@](#): > > The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Barack Obama attracting 42% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. That’s the lowest level of support measured for Obama since he clinched the Democratic Presidential nomination on June 3. Hold on though … this just in. [Gallup says Obama’s lead is growing! McCain is slipping away!](http://www.gallup.com/poll/108961/Gallup-Daily-Obama-leads-McCain-Six-Points.aspx) > [@](#): > > his current six percentage point lead is among the largest he has held over McCain to date. … The current results also mark the first time in more than three weeks that McCain’s share of the trial heat vote has not been in the 42% to 44% range. In fact, it matches a June 7-9 reading as McCain’s lowest level of support since Gallup began tracking general election preferences in March Dang these polls! I’m so confused. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2008, 4:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/228 "2008-07-22T04:07:11Z")
And now the McCain campaign is making noises about how that straight talker himself might could maybe will announce his veep choice this week. Not that they’re trying to divert attention from Obama, no, not at all. I’m sure they wouldn’t announce the veep pick right when Obama’s giving that speech in Berlin that’s expected to draw hundreds of thousands of attendees, nope, couldn’t possibly be trying to steal his thunder. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2008, 4:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/229 "2008-07-22T04:31:35Z")
[QUOTE=samclem] Sam. You don’t live in the US. You’ve seen your purchasing power advance by about 50% in the last 5-6 years, vis-a-vis the Canadian/US Dollar relationship. If you live in the US, and are a typical middle/lower class Amercan(making $20-50,000/yr.) then you’ve seen your standard of living plunge the last few years. The press reports which say the economy isn’t in recession are only talking about the classic definition. Come on down and talk to real people who have to drive to work, seeing their fuel component increase double. And, the increases in food/other prices has just started. It’ll get worse as the year goes on, as the costs get passed along. Believe me, it’s happening. I don’t care a whit about the economy the “last six years.” The US is in a recession, headed for a bad one currently. Just keep reading the headlines. [/QUOTE] Two things this reminds me of: 1. First to **samclem** : what you say here (in my eyes) skates dangerously close to an “_everyone knows_” assertion of reality. If we aren’t using the “classic definition,” what are we using as the “new” definition? Is it just when “a lot of people feel like it”? 2. Something I’ve been kind of confused about: I’ve been seeing a lot of conservative bloggers trying to argue lately that we aren’t in a recession - that we could be very soon, but we’re not in one NOW (see Instapundit’s “Dude, Where’s My Recession?” series of posts, pointing out various economic indicators he sees that are all, apparently, chugging along fine, or more than fine). Why is this suddenly so important to argue? To benefit McCain? For some other reason I can’t fathom? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2008, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/230 "2008-07-23T00:53:49Z")
[QUOTE=Leaper] Something I’ve been kind of confused about: I’ve been seeing a lot of conservative bloggers trying to argue lately that we aren’t in a recession - that we could be very soon, but we’re not in one NOW (see Instapundit’s “Dude, Where’s My Recession?” series of posts, pointing out various economic indicators he sees that are all, apparently, chugging along fine, or more than fine). Why is this suddenly so important to argue? To benefit McCain? For some other reason I can’t fathom? [/QUOTE] Best as I can tell, the wingnuts like the Ole Perfesser really do believe they have a better grasp on their fellow citizens’ economic situation than those citizens do. And since the wingnuts in question are generally doing fine, they find it implausible that more than a handful of whiners and slackers aren’t. If people feel like their personal economic situations are caving in, or are perilously close to doing so, it must be because the Liberal Media fooled them into thinking so. And a good healthy dose of statistics about The Economy (whose disconnect with the statistics about actual, y’know, _people_, they are apparently unaware of) should take care of that problem. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2008, 1:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/231 "2008-07-23T01:08:29Z")
[QUOTE=EddyTeddyFreddy] Not that they’re trying to divert attention from Obama, no, not at all. I’m sure they wouldn’t announce the veep pick right when Obama’s giving that speech in Berlin that’s expected to draw hundreds of thousands of attendees, nope, couldn’t possibly be trying to steal his thunder. [/QUOTE] I wouldn’t worry about it. How many Germans vote for U.S. President? Besides Arnold. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2008, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/232 "2008-07-23T03:12:30Z")
[QUOTE=Frank] I wouldn’t worry about it. How many Germans vote for U.S. President? Besides Arnold. [/QUOTE] _cough_ Actually, he was [born in Austria.](http://www.starpulse.com/news/index.php/2007/07/30/arnold_schwarzenegger_s_60th_birthday_ce) _cough_ ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2008, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/233 "2008-07-23T03:20:15Z")
[QUOTE=EddyTeddyFreddy] Actually, he was [born in Austria.](http://www.starpulse.com/news/index.php/2007/07/30/arnold_schwarzenegger_s_60th_birthday_ce) [/QUOTE] By only two years. My mistake. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2008, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/234 "2008-07-26T15:40:26Z")
A cogent argument made that McCain is indeed nearly [forked.](http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_alan_i_abramowitz/the_myth_of_a_toss_up_election) > [@](#): > > Trumpeting this race as a toss-up, almost certain to produce another nail-biter finish, distorts the evidence and does a disservice to readers and viewers who rely upon such punditry. Again, maybe conditions will change in McCain’s favor, and if they do, they should also be accurately described by the media. But current data do not justify calling this election a toss-up. > > Consider the following. > > Except for a few days when the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls showed a tie, Barack Obama has led John McCain in every national poll in the past two months. Obama’s average margin has consistently been in the 4-6 point range during this time. By contrast, the polls in 2000 and 2004 showed much more variation over time. State polling results have also consistently given Obama the advantage. According to [realclearpolitics.com](http://realclearpolitics.com), Obama is currently leading in 26 states and the District of Columbia with a total of 322 electoral votes; McCain is currently leading in 24 states with a total of 216 electoral votes. Obama is leading in every state carried by John Kerry in 2004 along with six states carried by George Bush: Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Indiana, Nevada and Colorado. A seventh Bush state, Virginia, is tied. > Obama is leading in 11 of the 12 swing states that were decided by a margin of five points or less in 2004 including five of the six that were carried by George Bush. And while Obama has a comfortable lead in every state that John Kerry won by a margin of more than five points in 2004, McCain is in a difficult battle in a number of states that Bush carried by a margin of more than five points including such solidly red states as Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, Virginia, and North Carolina. > And remember these June and July polls may well understate Obama’s eventual margin. Ronald Reagan did not capitalize on the huge structural advantage Republicans enjoyed in 1980 until after the party conventions and presidential debate. It took a while and a sufficient level of comfort with the challenger for anti-Carter votes to translate into support for Reagan. If Obama’s performance over the last eighteen months is any guide, a similar pattern could unfold in 2008. > Aside from the horserace results, there is evidence of a growing Democratic party advantage in the electorate. A recent analysis by Rhodes Cook of voter registration data in 29 states and the District of Columbia that permit registration by party shows that since November of 2004, Democratic registration has increased by almost 700,000 while Republican registration has declined by almost one million. … ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2008, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/235 "2008-07-26T21:33:50Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] A cogent argument made that McCain is indeed nearly [forked.](http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_alan_i_abramowitz/the_myth_of_a_toss_up_election) [/QUOTE] National polls are meaningless- if they and the Popular vote meant anything Gore would have been our Prez for the last neraly 8 years. There are certain key swing states- Fla, Mich, Ohio, and a few others. The “solid” states really won’t change the outcome either- there’s little doubt Obama will win CA and McCain TX. Look at this RCP Map: [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama\_vs\_mccain/](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/) Although Obama has a nice lead, look at how many states are a “toss-up”= 137. Add those to McCain and he wins by a small but significant %. Nearly every toss-up state went Red in the last two Prez elections, only NH & NM went Blue once each. But even if both those go Obama, McCain stilll wins. So, yes, Obama is doing well, but it is in no way a “sure thing”. No fork is even close to McCain. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2008, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/236 "2008-07-26T21:47:02Z")
\*Now \*you’ve gone and done it, **DD**. Prepare to be denounced for heresy. ---
**Author:** ![Oy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/bc8723/32.png) [@Oy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oy)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2008, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/237 "2008-07-26T22:22:22Z")
No, **DrDeth** won’t be denounced for heresy. The only thing any of us has is hope. There’s never absolute certainty in an election. All we can say at this point is that things are looking pretty good, better than they have in a while. ---
**Author:** ![Frostillicus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Frostillicus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frostillicus)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2008, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/238 "2008-07-26T22:48:11Z")
This electoral map at [www.pollster.com](http://www.pollster.com) shows Obama at 284 EV, which is already ahead of the 270 needed to win. I know things can change and it is only July, but this election reminds of 1980, in which President Carter stayed real close to Reagan until the very end, when the crappiness of the economy caused many to say WTF, it can’t get any worse under Reagan. Reagan of course ended up winning in a landslide. > **[Pollster](https://www.huffpost.com/news/topic/pollster)** > > Pollster news, charts, and opinion. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2008, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/239 "2008-07-26T22:54:01Z")
Yup, there is no sure thing here - if McCain can virtually run the table of Michigan, Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, etc … then he can pull it off. It is not impossible. But as Abramowitz, Mann, and Sabato point out, he is currently behind in “11 of the 12 swing states that were decided by a margin of five points or less in 2004 including five of the six that were carried by George Bush.” To visualize this go to the [RCP map with no toss-ups.](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=11) Not written in stone to be sure but it is a tall order. That said there is a lot of battle to come over the next 100 days. McCain will have to look vibrant and in charge during the debates and Obama will have to make some significant gaffes. The Swiftboats will need to strike the right chords and Obama will have to have no effective prepared response. McCain will have to find his sweet spot where he can appeal to the middle, dull some of Obama’s appeal to Hispanics, and at the same time energize the Conservative base to come out for him. It can happen. But McCain will need a run of three-pointers after having not even having the chance to get many shots off so far. It _can_ happen. ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2008, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/240 "2008-07-26T22:54:25Z")
Totally subjective argument: Obama is setting the rhetorical agenda; everything McCain says and goes is a direct response or an indirect reaction. The “audacity of hopelessness” sound bite from this past week is what solidified this perception for me. It feels like a pretty sharp reversal, but it has no legs, and isn’t going to stick; and more importantly, it’s defensive, a riposte rather than an attack. To win, McCain will need to define himself for the public, rather than put on a display of reflecting his opponent. McCain can’t let this continue; if he keeps trying to throw punches from back on his heels, Obama’s going to push him over, or just let him collapse. But if McCain rediscovers his mojo and begins generating energy of his own that Obama has to respond to, then the landscape will change. But as it is right now, the Big Mo is all Barack’s, and he’s got a shot at running away with it. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604.md?page=13)