# Is McCain forked yet? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 25, 2008, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604 "2008-05-25T23:58:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 28
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2008, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/541 "2008-09-22T02:37:51Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > New registrations are generally thought of as likely Obama or at least Dem voters. Really? Generally? Does that mean that the “registered voter” demographic skews Republican? Or am I missing something here? (I probably am.) ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2008, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/542 "2008-09-22T02:48:45Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Really? Generally? Does that mean that the “registered voter” demographic skews Republican? Or am I missing something here? (I probably am.) No, actually. It favors Democrats by more than 10 million. > [@](#): > > [Democrats post big gains in voter registration](http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iyCjg56QEYy3r8Gz2X09TnpaWOMwD9317JU00) > > . . . > > Since the last federal election in 2006, volunteers like Graham combined with the enthusiasm generated by the Obama-Clinton struggle to add more than 2 million Democrats to voter rolls in the 28 states that register voters according to party affiliation. The Republicans have lost nearly 344,000 thousand voters in the same states. > > . . . > > The number of unaffiliated voters dropped by nearly 900,000 since 2006. Many joined the Democratic Party to take part in the primaries and caucuses, and now they will now be targeted by an aggressive get-out-the-vote campaign. > > . . . > > **Nationwide, there are about 42 million registered Democrats and about 31 million Republicans, according to statistics compiled by The Associated Press.** > > The Democrats have posted big gains in many competitive states, including Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado and Florida. They have also been targeting historically Republican southern states. > > Since 2006, the Democrats have added 167,000 voters in North Carolina, while the Republicans have added 36,000. The Democrats’ biggest voter registration goal is in Georgia, where the Obama campaign hopes to register 500,000 voters before the election, said Dean, who has spent the past month traveling the country on a voter registration bus tour. > > . . . > > In Pennsylvania, the Democrats have added 375,000 voters since 2006 while the Republicans have lost 117,000. > > . . . We just need to get their asses to the voting booths in November! ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2008, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/543 "2008-09-22T02:51:12Z")
Does it not concern anyone that Michigan really shouldn’t be a battleground state? I mean, Obama Has to win Michigan; there’s no realistic playout of this election whereby he loses Michigan but wins the election. Michigan hasn’t gone Republican in a long time. As of today [electoral-vote.com](http://electoral-vote.com) has Obama winning 273-265, losing Ohio but just barely making it up by taking Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa. What’s scary, though, is that his leads are razor thin in a lot of places; EV has him ahead by just one point in Minnesota, two in Wisconsin, two in Colorado, two in Pennsylvania. Given the spectre of the don’t-vote-for-the-black-Moozlim effect I’m legitimately concerned he could lose any or all of those states. My concern grows by the day because every day McCain sounds older and Palin sounds more ignorant. I’m really, really hoping this week sees more Obama gains. ---
**Author:** ![Oy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/bc8723/32.png) [@Oy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oy)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2008, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/544 "2008-09-22T02:53:36Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Really? Generally? Does that mean that the “registered voter” demographic skews Republican? Or am I missing something here? (I probably am.) **LOUNE** is a professional Obama campaign worker. Does that help? ETA: In Michigan. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2008, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/545 "2008-09-22T18:34:12Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Really? Generally? Does that mean that the “registered voter” demographic skews Republican? Or am I missing something here? (I probably am.) New voters skew Dem. Especially when you focus your efforts in poorer neighborhoods. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2008, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/546 "2008-09-22T21:10:11Z")
[A good day for Obama.](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html) SUSA has him +6 in VA. PPP +11 in New Mexico. Rasmussen has NC close: McCain +3. Back in August they had it McCain +6. NBC/Mason-Dixon adds another Obama narrow lead in PA: +2. And on the downside Suffolk has McCain marginally ahead in Nevada (albeit well within MOE) +1. Overall quite nice. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2008, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/547 "2008-09-22T21:26:26Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > What’s scary, though, is that his leads are razor thin in a lot of places; EV has him ahead by just one point in Minnesota, two in Wisconsin, two in Colorado, two in Pennsylvania. Rasmussen put Obama back [ahread by 8](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/minnesota/election_2008_minnesota_presidential_election) in Minnesota if it makes you feel any better. ---
**Author:** ![Oy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/bc8723/32.png) [@Oy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oy)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2008, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/548 "2008-09-22T21:32:48Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > Rasmussen put Obama back [ahread by 8](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/minnesota/election_2008_minnesota_presidential_election) in Minnesota if it makes you feel any better. That kind of thing always makes me feel better. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2008, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/549 "2008-09-22T22:57:09Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > Rasmussen put Obama back [ahread by 8](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/minnesota/election_2008_minnesota_presidential_election) in Minnesota if it makes you feel any better. It does, though of course a week of polls will make me feel better. And the latest poll has McCain winning Ohio. I don’t understand Ohio at all. ---
**Author:** ![tim314](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tim314/32/3468_2.png) [@tim314](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tim314)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2008, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/550 "2008-09-22T23:49:40Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Does it not concern anyone that Michigan really shouldn’t be a battleground state? I mean, Obama Has to win Michigan; there’s no realistic playout of this election whereby he loses Michigan but wins the election. Michigan hasn’t gone Republican in a long time. I guess that depends what you consider “realistic”. If Obama takes Ohio, or Virginia, or Florida, then he could certainly make it to 270 electoral votes without taking Michigan. I personally would be pretty surprised to see him winning those states while losing Michigan, but I wouldn’t assume it’s beyond the realm of possibility. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2008, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/551 "2008-09-23T01:39:11Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > I don’t understand Ohio at all. Ohio bridges the North and the South. Cleveland is solidly Democrat, Cincinnati is solid Republican. Columbus, in the middle of the state is the swing area, although has leaned more Democratic as of late. Southern Ohio as well as the anti same sex marriage amendment was enough to swing Ohio to Bush and thus the election. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2008, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/552 "2008-09-23T01:51:51Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > It does, though of course a week of polls will make me feel better. And the latest poll has McCain winning Ohio. Not to just sit and parrot polls, but the latest Fox/Rasmussen poll has Obama back up by 7 in Michigan. McCain is still leading in Ohio but those northern “anchor” states are all deepening their blue hues as McCain’s convention bounce fades. No new polling out of Wisconsin but I’d be seriously suprised to see it not go for Obama this year. Today’s Virginia results are interesting. I guess I’m still not convinced that VA is going to go blue this year but things like this give me some hope: Fox/Rasmussen: McCain +2 ABC News/Wash Post: Obama +3 SurveyUSA: Obama +6 Granted, SurveyUSA is the same bundle of chuckleheads who were giving North Carolina to McCain by 20 points a week ago so take it with a grain of salt. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2008, 1:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/553 "2008-09-23T01:52:11Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Sweet! Now we need to GOTV. Dropped off roughly a hundred more completed forms to City Hall in Barack Obama, MI this morning. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2008, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/554 "2008-09-23T01:54:42Z")
> [@tim314](#): > > I guess that depends what you consider “realistic”. If Obama takes Ohio, or Virginia, or Florida, then he could certainly make it to 270 electoral votes without taking Michigan. I personally would be pretty surprised to see him winning those states while losing Michigan, but I wouldn’t assume it’s beyond the realm of possibility. Conventional wisdom has Michigan as \*the \*state. If Michigan goes Red or Blue, it’s pretty much game over. If it goes Red, that means McCain has to pick off some Kerry states, which drives the probability of a McCain victory VERY low. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2008, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/555 "2008-09-23T01:57:15Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > Southern Ohio as well as the anti same sex marriage amendment was enough to swing Ohio to Bush and thus the election. That and black voter suppression. I don’t see any way McCain carries Michigan. Obama wins big in Detroit and Flint, as well as the two Big Ten campuses. McCain will do very well in Grand Rapids and Macomb County. It just seems to me that there are a lot more people in strong Obama counties than in strong McCain counties. Ohio worries me a thousand times more than Michigan does. The debates will swing the vote more than anything else from here out. ---
**Author:** ![Defensive\_Indifference](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/defensive_indifference/32/6502_2.png) [@Defensive\_Indifference](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defensive_Indifference)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2008, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/556 "2008-09-23T02:16:22Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > Cleveland is solidly Democrat, Cincinnati is solid Republican. I love [this](http://www.princeton.edu/~rvdb/JAVA/election2004/PurpleAmericaPosterAll50.gif) map (more years [here](http://www.princeton.edu/~rvdb/JAVA/election2004/)). It looks like the counties containing the Cincinnati MSA are “purple” – maybe not evenly split, but mixed, probably between the city and the 'burbs. Cleveland does look bluer. I’ve only lived in Cincy for a few years, but my sense is that the population of the city itself is fairly Democratic, while the Republicans live in the suburbs. That seems, of course, to be the case in a lot of big cities. I hope Obama can convice a lot of us city dwellers to get to the polls. ---
**Author:** ![tim314](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tim314/32/3468_2.png) [@tim314](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tim314)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2008, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/557 "2008-09-23T03:20:12Z")
> [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](#): > > Conventional wisdom has Michigan as \*the \*state. If Michigan goes Red or Blue, it’s pretty much game over. I can see the case that losing a state which both Kerry and Gore took would be a pretty bad sign for Obama – but how can you say that Michigan going _blue_ would be game over? It was blue in the previous elections, and that didn’t prevent a Bush victory. For what it’s worth the folks at [fivethirtyeight.com](http://fivethirtyeight.com) have claimed [Colorado](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/colorado-rates-as-most-important-state.html) is the most important state. I’d say they have a decent case – it does seem to be the tipping point in a lot of the electoral college projections I’ve seen. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2008, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/558 "2008-09-23T03:28:55Z")
> [@tim314](#): > > I can see the case that losing a state which both Kerry and Gore took would be a pretty bad sign for Obama – but how can you say that Michigan going _blue_ would be game over? It was blue in the previous elections, and that didn’t prevent a Bush victory. > > For what it’s worth the folks at [fivethirtyeight.com](http://fivethirtyeight.com) have claimed [Colorado](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/colorado-rates-as-most-important-state.html) is the most important state. I’d say they have a decent case – it does seem to be the tipping point in a lot of the electoral college projections I’ve seen. My bad. I meant Red. Sleep is good. Actually, no. I was right. It’s game over either way. ---
**Author:** ![tim314](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tim314/32/3468_2.png) [@tim314](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tim314)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2008, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/559 "2008-09-23T03:30:18Z")
> [@tim314](#): > > For what it’s worth the folks at [fivethirtyeight.com](http://fivethirtyeight.com) have claimed [Colorado](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/colorado-rates-as-most-important-state.html) is the most important state. I’d say they have a decent case – it does seem to be the tipping point in a lot of the electoral college projections I’ve seen. Hmm . . . in their [latest post](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/todays-polls-922.html) it seems that they’ve changed their tune. Apparently the feeling is Obama will flip enough states blue to win the election so long as he holds the Kerry states. But they’re claiming Pennsylvania is more at risk than Michigan. ---
**Author:** ![tim314](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tim314/32/3468_2.png) [@tim314](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tim314)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2008, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/560 "2008-09-23T03:32:33Z")
> [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](#): > > Actually, no. I was right. It’s game over either way. So you think winning Michigan guarantees an Obama victory? What are you basing this on? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604.md?page=27) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604.md?page=29)