# Is McCain forked yet? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 25, 2008, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604 "2008-05-25T23:58:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 30
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2008, 11:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/581 "2008-09-24T11:41:54Z")
The sobering fact is that the lead is this narrow (and thus potentially fragile) during a week that highly favors Obama - focus on economy, Palin losing her novelty act attraction, and some conservatives highly critical of McCain. [(See George Will’s column, for example)](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/22/AR2008092202583.html) ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2008, 12:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/582 "2008-09-24T12:30:25Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > The sobering fact is that the lead is this narrow (and thus potentially fragile) during a week that highly favors Obama - focus on economy, Palin losing her novelty act attraction, and some conservatives highly critical of McCain. [(See George Will’s column, for example)](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/22/AR2008092202583.html) Wow, might we end up seeing George Will endorsing Obama? Nah. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2008, 1:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/583 "2008-09-24T13:09:27Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > The sobering fact is that the lead is this narrow (and thus potentially fragile) during a week that highly favors Obama - focus on economy, Palin losing her novelty act attraction, and some conservatives highly critical of McCain. [(See George Will’s column, for example)](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/22/AR2008092202583.html) I don’t think the lead is that narrow. The latest [ABC News/Washington Post poll](http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=5873320&page=1) has Obama up by 9 points, 52-43 nationally. And [Electoral-vote.com](http://Electoral-vote.com) has Obama up by 26 electoral votes, and winning with 282. Granted Virginia, Pennsylvania and Colorado are Obama’s by 2 percentage points or less. So that’s pretty narrow, I suppose. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2008, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/584 "2008-09-24T13:16:22Z")
> [@tim314](#): > > I take it by your ridiculously vague answers that you don’t have any intention of discussing this point? > > Perhaps I’m supposed to think it’s obvious that carrying a state which Gore and Kerry also carried would somehow guarantee Obama victory? > > Perhaps you have access to some super-secret poll that shows Obama already has 253 other electoral votes locked up? > > Perhaps I missed the announcement that the name of the forum has been changed to “Great unsupported proclamations”? Well, there are internal numbers, and there are a host of sites that do breakdowns on electoral math. Long story short: Michigan is hella important. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2008, 1:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/585 "2008-09-24T13:45:24Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > I don’t think the lead is that narrow. The latest [ABC News/Washington Post poll](http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=5873320&page=1) has Obama up by 9 points, 52-43 nationally. > > And [Electoral-vote.com](http://Electoral-vote.com) has Obama up by 26 electoral votes, and winning with 282. Granted Virginia, Pennsylvania and Colorado are Obama’s by 2 percentage points or less. So that’s pretty narrow, I suppose. I’d be more inclined to trust [electoral-vote.com](http://electoral-vote.com), which bases its figures on a metaanalysis of polls, and of course does them on a state by state basis. Obviously, if Obama actually DID win the national popular vote by 9 points there’s not really any realistic way those votes could fall that wouldn’t result in victory. He could lose the electoral vote winning the popular vote by 2 points, but not by 9. However, one national poll tells you squat. A combination of votes tells you a lot, and [electoral-vote.com](http://electoral-vote.com) has the race as being pretty much dead even; too many states are too close to call. Sadly, the black-guy-factor might still be in play. Suppose each state is overreporting Obama’s support slightly, so in fact he’ll give two points to McCain in each state due to the black guy factor (I know it has a name. I keep forgetting it.) That would swing Pennsylvania, Virginia and Colorado, which means McCain wins 299-239. McCain is not forked… yet. Five weeks is an eternity in politics. He could catch a wave and win, or he could make a gaffe and be absolutely crushed. The campaign so far suggests McCain and Palin are far more vulnerable to missteps than Obama and Biden, but no chickens have yet been hatched. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2008, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/586 "2008-09-24T13:56:27Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > McCain is not forked… yet. Five weeks is an eternity in politics. He could catch a wave and win, or he could make a gaffe and be absolutely crushed. > > The campaign so far suggests McCain and Palin are far more vulnerable to missteps than Obama and Biden, but no chickens have yet been hatched. They’re not only vulnerable to gaffes and missteps, they’re vulnerable to real-world issues dominating the campaign too, which doesn’t bode well for them. When the campaign is about “celebrities,” and this one time at POW camp, and Sarah Palin’s hockey momness, and lipstick on pigs and bullshit like that, McCain does well. But when people rightly re-focus their attention on the possibility that we’re on the brink of recession because of the Bush administration and GOP’s deregulation policies, things swing back to Obama. You’re right, he ain’t forked yet, and I’ll be curious to see some other polls as well, but the tide is moving toward Obama at a pretty decent clip. ---
**Author:** ![askeptic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/eb9ed0/32.png) [@askeptic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/askeptic)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2008, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/587 "2008-09-24T14:07:30Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > But when people rightly re-focus their attention on the possibility that we’re on the brink of recession because of the Bush administration and GOP’s deregulation policies, things swing back to Obama. You misspelled Depression. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2008, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/588 "2008-09-24T14:12:23Z")
> [@askeptic](#): > > You misspelled Depression. I thought about using “depression,” but I figured I’d go with the next-to-worst case scenario, lest I be called a overly-dramatic Chicken Little by some. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2008, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/589 "2008-09-24T14:16:46Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > …Sadly, the black-guy-factor might still be in play. Suppose each state is overreporting Obama’s support slightly, so in fact he’ll give two points to McCain in each state due to the black guy factor (I know it has a name. I keep forgetting it.) That would swing Pennsylvania, Virginia and Colorado, which means McCain wins 299-239… I have heard a couple of pundits say the “black guy factor” is worth 5-7 percent for McCain. Of course no one really knows, but I fear it’s worse than that. I would be very happy to learn I’m wrong, but it’s tough to underestimate the intelligence of the American public. Even if your guess is “none”. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2008, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/590 "2008-09-24T14:20:39Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > I thought about using “depression,” but I figured I’d go with the next-to-worst case scenario, lest I be called a overly-dramatic Chicken Little by some. No, I think you would’ve been safe saying depression. We could ALL be forked in the next few months. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2008, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/591 "2008-09-24T14:24:56Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > They’re not only vulnerable to gaffes and missteps, they’re vulnerable to real-world issues dominating the campaign too, which doesn’t bode well for them. When the campaign is about “celebrities,” and this one time at POW camp, and Sarah Palin’s hockey momness, and lipstick on pigs and bullshit like that, McCain does well. But when people rightly re-focus their attention on the possibility that we’re on the brink of recession because of the Bush administration and GOP’s deregulation policies, things swing back to Obama. Last week proves your point; once the credit crisis started dominating the news, McCain’s momentum went fast. His campaign has mishandled the issue terribly. ---
**Author:** ![Raygun99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/6f9a4e/32.png) [@Raygun99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Raygun99)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2008, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/592 "2008-09-24T14:45:10Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > I’d be more inclined to trust [electoral-vote.com](http://electoral-vote.com), which bases its figures on a metaanalysis of polls, and of course does them on a state by state basis. > > Sadly, the black-guy-factor might still be in play. Suppose each state is overreporting Obama’s support slightly, so in fact he’ll give two points to McCain in each state due to the black guy factor (I know it has a name. I keep forgetting it.) That would swing Pennsylvania, Virginia and Colorado, which means McCain wins 299-239. It’s called the [Bradley Effect](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/persistent-myth-of-bradley-effect.html), but it simply wasn’t a factor in the primaries. In fact, he out performed his poll results more often than not. People might not vote for him because he’s a black guy, but they’d have voted for McCain already or are open about the fact they’re voting based on race. ---
**Author:** ![An\_Arky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/87869e/32.png) [@An\_Arky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/An_Arky)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2008, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/593 "2008-09-24T14:59:47Z")
**Raygun99** beat me to it, the scoundrel! 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Defensive\_Indifference](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/defensive_indifference/32/6502_2.png) [@Defensive\_Indifference](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defensive_Indifference)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2008, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/594 "2008-09-24T19:26:23Z")
Fox News has a new national [poll](http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/09/24/fox-news-poll-obama-reclaims-lead-over-mccain-45-to-39/) – Obama 45% - McCain 39%. I think that’s the first one I’ve seen with McCain below 40%. An interesting bit at the end of that story: > [@Fox News](#): > > Almost half of voters (47 percent) think McCain has made unfair attacks against Obama — somewhat higher than the 36 percent who think Obama is hitting below the belt. Dunno how the new [story](http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/23/biden.earmarks/index.html)about Biden and Obama supporting the Bridge to Nowhere, or McCain’s loony-or-maybe-brilliant [offer](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=484845)to suspend the campaign to work on the economy will fly over the next few days. Still, scoring below 40 isn’t a good sign for McCain. ---
**Author:** ![Oy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/bc8723/32.png) [@Oy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oy)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2008, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/595 "2008-09-24T21:24:01Z")
I don’t see how this can help McCain. He’s been flailing around contributing nothing thus far. He doesn’t have anything to offer. Obama has more to offer than McCain does. But Dodd seems to have it under control, and the last thing they seem to need at this point is more cooks running around spoiling the broth. Of course, I’m applying thought to the issue. Viewed through the lense of spin, this might work very well for him. ---
**Author:** ![askeptic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/eb9ed0/32.png) [@askeptic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/askeptic)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2008, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/596 "2008-09-24T22:00:53Z")
> [@Oy](#): > > Of course, I’m applying thought to the issue. Well there’s your problem, right there. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2008, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/597 "2008-09-24T23:37:26Z")
**TIME/CNN Battleground Numbers** > [@](#): > > [http://thepage.time.com/2008/09/24/timecnn-battleground-numbers/](http://thepage.time.com/2008/09/24/timecnn-battleground-numbers/) > > **Colorado: Obama 51, McCain 47 > Michigan: Obama 51, McCain 46 > Montana: McCain 54, Obama 43 > Pennsylvania: Obama 53, McCain 44 > West Virginia: McCain 50, Obama 46** > > Dates conducted: Sept. 21-23. Error margin: 3.5 points. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2008, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/598 "2008-09-25T00:36:58Z")
You know, I’ve been meaning to ask this for a long time and keep forgetting: Why is New Mexico a blue outlier in the otherwise very red South? ---
**Author:** ![A\_shameful\_cracka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ebca7d/32.png) [@A\_shameful\_cracka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/A_shameful_cracka)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2008, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/599 "2008-09-25T00:48:11Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > You know, I’ve been meaning to ask this for a long time and keep forgetting: > > Why is New Mexico a blue outlier in the otherwise very red South? Hippies and Mexicans. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2008, 12:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/600 "2008-09-25T00:58:18Z")
> [@A\_shameful\_cracka](#): > > Hippies and Mexicans. A poll in Colorado (follow the link to the article on Obama’s lead in Colorado [here](http://coloradoindependent.com/9151/oops-colorado-mccain-camp-sends-internal-e-mail-to-reporters) shows him with a 60 point lead over McCain with Hispanics! (The linked article is fun also.) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604.md?page=29) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604.md?page=31)