# Is McCain forked yet? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 25, 2008, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604 "2008-05-25T23:58:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 36
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 4:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/701 "2008-09-30T04:50:58Z")
> [@askeptic](#): > > As for who is forked, [this](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_obama-418.html) looks promising. > If Florida goes blue, it’s all over but the lawsuits. Obama moved ahead in the polls in [North Carolina](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_mccain_vs_obama-334.html), too. ---
**Author:** ![waterj2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/858c86/32.png) [@waterj2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/waterj2)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 6:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/702 "2008-09-30T06:31:09Z")
> [@Shayna](#): > > Obama moved ahead in the polls in [North Carolina](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_mccain_vs_obama-334.html), too. That’s pretty nice. Looks like there was a huge block that was undecided until after the RNC, then went McCain, and then Obama in rapid succession. Hopefully this group is less volatile between now and the election. North Carolina is definitely one I’m watching for clear signs that it’s time for forks. I just don’t see any scenario where McCain loses NC but wins the election. I just don’t see NC turning blue unless it’s part of a trend. ---
**Author:** ![tim314](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tim314/32/3468_2.png) [@tim314](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tim314)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 7:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/703 "2008-09-30T07:09:24Z")
> [@waterj2](#): > > North Carolina is definitely one I’m watching for clear signs that it’s time for forks. I just don’t see any scenario where McCain loses NC but wins the election. I just don’t see NC turning blue unless it’s part of a trend. I agree, if NC goes to Obama I’d assume other battle grounds are too. Likewise, losing Florida would mean McCain is sunk. If McCain holds those two, then I’m going to be most interested in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Virginia. If Obama can take three of those, I think he’s got it in the bag. If he only takes two, then I think it comes down to smaller battleground states like Colorado. If he only takes one of the four, I think Obama is screwed. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 8:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/704 "2008-09-30T08:40:49Z")
Obama is looking pretty comfortable in Michigan and Pennsylvania at the moment. A poll in Minnesota would be interesting since that has been very close so far. Iowa and New Mexico are two Bush states which look comfortable for Obama. The Bush states which are very close at the moment are Ohio,Florida,Colorado,Virginia,Indiana and North Carolina. Obama will probably need one of of these states for a win. So he has several paths to victory but doesn’t have a decisive lead in every state of a 270+ combination as of now. ---
**Author:** ![tnetennba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7993a0/32.png) [@tnetennba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tnetennba)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 12:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/705 "2008-09-30T12:38:34Z")
The last Florida poll gives Obama an edge. Frankly, when the GOP candidate is barely polling ahead of the Democrat in states like Indiana and North Carolina, they’re in big trouble. [FiveThirtyEight.com](http://FiveThirtyEight.com) has a good article today posted about the baffling inconsistency of the GW/Battleground polls. In short: over 70 percent of their sample is 45 and older. :smack: ---
**Author:** ![Biggirl](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biggirl/32/3294_2.png) [@Biggirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biggirl)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/706 "2008-09-30T16:41:27Z")
[If he suspends his campaign again, I’d say he’d be forked, screwed, fried, dyed and laid to the side.](http://www.thenation.com/blogs/campaignmatters/366390/mccain_may_suspend_campaign_again) ---
**Author:** ![tnetennba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7993a0/32.png) [@tnetennba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tnetennba)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/707 "2008-09-30T16:47:35Z")
What a sycophantic interviewer. And McCain has the nerve to whine about media bias when they give him tongue baths like that. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/708 "2008-09-30T17:15:02Z")
> [@cricetus](#): > > [FiveThirtyEight.com](http://FiveThirtyEight.com) has a good article today posted about the baffling inconsistency of the GW/Battleground polls. In short: over 70 percent of their sample is 45 and older. :smack: They finally show Obama +2 today so either they changed their methodology or else a lot of people 45+ changed their leanings. ---
**Author:** ![askeptic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/eb9ed0/32.png) [@askeptic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/askeptic)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/709 "2008-09-30T17:39:07Z")
> [@Biggirl](#): > > [If he suspends his campaign again, I’d say he’d be forked, screwed, fried, dyed and laid to the side.](http://www.thenation.com/blogs/campaignmatters/366390/mccain_may_suspend_campaign_again) this is about the palin debate isn’t it? What do they think she will do eat a live baby on national tv? ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/710 "2008-09-30T17:52:29Z")
> [@askeptic](#): > > As for who is forked, [this](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_obama-418.html) looks promising. > If Florida goes blue, it’s all over but the lawsuits. True dat. Florida is BIG and alwasy close. I was willing to assume the GOP would have a narrow win there, but this is great news. Still no fork, not until November, but it’s good to know. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/711 "2008-09-30T18:13:36Z")
> [@askeptic](#): > > this is about the palin debate isn’t it? What do they think she will do eat a live baby on national tv? Nah. If everyone loves Palin for spouting gibberish, maybe McCain thinks he needs to also. I only read part of the Times story on him gambling, but the part I read didn’t mention whether he won or lost. I think what has been happening is that he’s been trying to make inside straights, and failing, and is getting more and more frantic to get even. Who the heck wants to trust an erratic Republican with a sensitive economy. We might be seeing another FDR vs. Hoover blowout coming. ---
**Author:** ![Jolly\_Roger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/91b2a8/32.png) [@Jolly\_Roger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jolly_Roger)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/712 "2008-09-30T18:15:51Z")
> [@askeptic](#): > > this is about the palin debate isn’t it? What do they think she will do eat a live baby on national tv? What happens if he suspends? Obama can certainly work on the issues in congress and campaign. If McPalin suspends again I can’t possibly see how this can be his advantage. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/713 "2008-09-30T18:23:21Z")
> [@askeptic](#): > > this is about the palin debate isn’t it? What do they think she will do eat a live baby on national tv? While it’s funny to think this has to do with Palin, there’s no way in the world Palin could be bad enough to justify this spastic behavior. She could stand there and say nothing at all and still be better than another suspension. So, I’m left thinking there’s more to it, I just can’t figure out more _WHAT_? ---
**Author:** ![Oy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/bc8723/32.png) [@Oy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oy)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/714 "2008-09-30T18:32:34Z")
> [@askeptic](#): > > this is about the palin debate isn’t it? What do they think she will do eat a live baby on national tv? Why would she do that? She’s growing her own, isn’t she? Or isn’t he ripe yet? ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/715 "2008-09-30T19:37:46Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > I only read part of the Times story on him gambling, but the part I read didn’t mention whether he won or lost. He shoots craps at casinos. By definition he loses, at least in the long run. The house has an advantage of up to 16.67% on every bet. ---
**Author:** ![Lakai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/9de0a6/32.png) [@Lakai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lakai)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/716 "2008-09-30T19:46:25Z")
RCP average of 4.8 two days ago. 4.6 yesterday. 5.1 Today. He’s still trekking up. McCain needs a terrorist attack to get himself out of this. _Knocks on wood_. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/717 "2008-09-30T20:00:18Z")
[More ill tidings for John](http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/09/30/diageohotline_obama_surges_in_battleground_states.html): > [@](#): > > An early look at today’s Diageo/Hotline tracking poll shows Sen. Barack Obama now holds a double-digit lead in key battleground states. > > Among registered voters surveyed in Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin and Nevada, Obama tops McCain 50 to 40%. Just a week ago, Obama led 45% to 42%. ---
**Author:** ![Jack\_Batty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jack_batty/32/3201_2.png) [@Jack\_Batty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jack_Batty)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/718 "2008-09-30T20:10:46Z")
> [@ArchiveGuy](#): > > [More ill tidings for John](http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/09/30/diageohotline_obama_surges_in_battleground_states.html): Something that’s interesting to me, and I can find a cite if I have to, is that I’d read that no Republican candidate has ever won the presidency without carrying Ohio. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/719 "2008-09-30T21:52:38Z")
> [@](#): > > Something that’s interesting to me, and I can find a cite if I have to, is that I’d read that no Republican candidate has ever won the presidency without carrying Ohio. You have to be careful with statistics like this… If you mine enough data, you’ll always find correlations after the fact, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that there’s a reason for them, or that we should expect the pattern to continue. Certainly there’s a correlation between winning Ohio (or any other given state) and winning the election (and [fivethirtyeight.com](http://fivethirtyeight.com) puts it at only a 1.5% chance of McCain winning without Ohio, this particular election), but I don’t think it’s _that_ strong of a correlation, in real terms. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/720 "2008-09-30T22:13:31Z")
[That Hotline poll](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/Hotline_093008.htm) also has this significant bit (could’ve sworn I posted this but who knows where it went) > [@](#): > > 68% of Obama voters are enthusiastic about their candidate, while only 46% of McCain voters say the same. A week ago, that 22% gap was just 7% – 58% were enthusiastic for Obama and 51% were enthusiastic for McCain. The debate may not have swung many over but those who have come over are now apparently solidly over, and those left still preferring McCain aren’t as solidly so. How that translates into turnout on election day remains to be seen but looking good. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604.md?page=35) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604.md?page=37)