# Is McCain forked yet? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 25, 2008, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604 "2008-05-25T23:58:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 38
**Author:** ![Oy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/bc8723/32.png) [@Oy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oy)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2008, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/741 "2008-10-01T14:16:29Z")
> [@Koxinga](#): > > I’m guessing you’re being tongue-in-cheek, but really, that was one of the first interview questions I fielded right away when I sat down with the chairman of my current company. (“What newspapers do you read?”) I’d have to say none. I watch Lehrer, and I monitor the news all day via the SDMB and CNN on-line. But I don’t read newspapers and usually don’t read periodicals. I watch MSNBC at night, pretty much every night. Would I be hired? ---
**Author:** ![Koxinga](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/4af34b/32.png) [@Koxinga](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Koxinga)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2008, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/742 "2008-10-01T14:28:56Z")
> [@Oy](#): > > I’d have to say none. I watch Lehrer, and I monitor the news all day via the SDMB and CNN on-line. But I don’t read newspapers and usually don’t read periodicals. I watch MSNBC at night, pretty much every night. Would I be hired? Well, not at my company, no. Sorry. For economic and financial stuff you need to show evidence of doing your own thinking, not just accepting what the talking heads tell you. Moreover, it’s strongly preferred that you read newspapers written in _Chinese_. Koxinga, denizen of the Taiwan stock market. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2008, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/743 "2008-10-01T14:39:15Z")
> [@Koxinga](#): > > I’m guessing you’re being tongue-in-cheek, but really, that was one of the first interview questions I fielded right away when I sat down with the chairman of my current company. (“What newspapers do you read?”) yep i was 🙂 Its a good question. I see that downthread you said you would not hire Oy because he does not read newspapers, I think Oy’s answer is orders of magnitude better than Palin’s, he is open about the fact and a case can be made that he and you only differ on the quality of his and yours preferred info sources (i think SDMB and CNN online are better sources than the NY Post or the Washington Times, for example). But not only Palin does not read newspapers, she also has not the brains to realize that “all of them” is a ridiculous answer, and has not the moral fortitude to say “I dont read newspapers, i think that does not disqualify me because x,yz…” For christ’s sake if you are going to pretend that you read Newspapers at least say something like " i read NY Times and the WS Journal so i can see the news from both angles" or “i read \” She’s the worst of both worlds dumb and dishonest… I really really hope she does not end up as Potus. ---
**Author:** ![Oy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/bc8723/32.png) [@Oy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oy)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2008, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/744 "2008-10-01T14:45:34Z")
> [@Koxinga](#): > > Well, not at my company, no. Sorry. For economic and financial stuff you need to show evidence of doing your own thinking, not just accepting what the talking heads tell you. > > Moreover, it’s strongly preferred that you read newspapers written in _Chinese_. > > Koxinga, denizen of the Taiwan stock market. Ah. Well, I can’t work anyway, and I can’t read (or speak) Chinese. So I guess I’m right out. If you need an employee, don’t come looking for me. 😃 **Oy!** is a she too. ETA: I’m not sure accepting what reading heads are telling you in papers is more thinking than accepting what talking heads on TV are telling you. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2008, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/745 "2008-10-01T14:52:02Z")
> [@Oy](#): > > **Oy!** is a she too. Ouch!, sorry **Oy**. ---
**Author:** ![Oy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/bc8723/32.png) [@Oy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oy)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2008, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/746 "2008-10-01T14:53:10Z")
> [@frodo](#): > > ouch!, sorry **oy**. s’ok. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2008, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/747 "2008-10-01T15:27:41Z")
> [@Frodo](#): > > Ouch!, sorry **Oy**. No reason to be sorry. Nor is there any reason to correct posters for this, as it’s not an error. ---
**Author:** ![Oy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/bc8723/32.png) [@Oy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oy)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2008, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/748 "2008-10-01T15:41:38Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > No reason to be sorry. Nor is there any reason to correct posters for this, as it’s not an error. Well, I think I’m entitled to tell someone I’m a she rather than a he, aren’t I? But I agree there was no reason for **Frodo** to be sorry - there’s no way (I assume) he could have known unless (I assume) he had run across me being a her before. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2008, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/749 "2008-10-01T15:46:47Z")
Couric asked which papers Palin read prior to getting tapped for VP. I find it a bit startling that Palin wouldn’t start her answer with “Naturally, I read the _Anchorage Daily News_ and the _Fairbanks News-Miner_…” She’s the governor of Alaska and doesn’t read the local dailies? ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2008, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/750 "2008-10-01T15:48:06Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > Couric asked which papers Palin read prior to getting tapped for VP. I find it a bit startling that Palin wouldn’t start her answer with “Naturally, I read the _Anchorage Daily News_ and the _Fairbanks News-Miner_…” > > She’s the governor of Alaska and doesn’t read the local dailies? A lousy actor always avoids bad reviews… ---
**Author:** ![Cheesesteak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cheesesteak/32/3694_2.png) [@Cheesesteak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cheesesteak)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2008, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/751 "2008-10-01T15:49:43Z")
> [@Frodo](#): > > But not only Palin does not read newspapers, she also has not the brains to realize that “all of them” is a ridiculous answer, and has not the moral fortitude to say “I dont read newspapers, i think that does not disqualify me because x,yz…” Actually, she clarified that she reads all of the newspapers that have been in front of her over the years. What that means to me is “I read all of the newspapers that happen to be in front of me when I sit down to read a newspaper.” Katie was trying to give her viewers a look into Palin’s “world view”, and I think she did. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2008, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/752 "2008-10-01T15:51:49Z")
> [@Bayard](#): > > It seems like Quinnipiac polls have been outliers a lot of the time, so salt this post to taste. > > Quinnipiac is supposed to be releasing a poll today saying: > > PA: Obama 54 to 39 > FL: Obama 51 to 43 > OH: Obama 50 to 42 > > The poll isn’t up on Quinnipiac’s site yet. [This](http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24433134-23109,00.html) is the first report of it I hit on Google. NPR mentioned it this morning as well. > > I’m skeptical of these polls since they’re pretty far out of whack with all the other polls I’ve been seeing. Still, damn. Quinnipiac is officially up now. . . _FLORIDA:_ **Obama 51, McCain 43** _OHIO:_ **Obama 50, McCain 42** _PENNSYLVANIA:_ **Obama 54, McCain 39** _Dates conducted: Sept. 27-29. Error margin: 3.4 percentage points._ [http://thepage.time.com/2008/10/01/poll-obama-edges-out-mccain-in-battlegrounds/](http://thepage.time.com/2008/10/01/poll-obama-edges-out-mccain-in-battlegrounds/) ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2008, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/753 "2008-10-01T15:56:12Z")
> [@cricetus](#): > > To suggest that McCain has or had at any point unified the party suggests the OP paid absolutely no attention to the primaries or the discussions from the Republican side. To be fair, this was ElvisLives who opened this thread. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2008, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/754 "2008-10-01T16:01:18Z")
> [@Cheesesteak](#): > > What that means to me is “I read all of the newspapers that happen to be in front of me when I sit down to read a newspaper.” “Todd! The _Moosetail Penny Gazette_ says that Roy & Sue Ann and getting married!” ---
**Author:** ![Oy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/bc8723/32.png) [@Oy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oy)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2008, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/755 "2008-10-01T16:02:39Z")
> [@E-Sabbath](#): > > To be fair, this was ElvisLives who opened this thread. I somehow think he was paying attention. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2008, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/756 "2008-10-01T16:19:06Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > [That Hotline poll](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/Hotline_093008.htm) also has this significant bit (could’ve sworn I posted this but who knows where it went)The debate may not have swung many over but those who have come over are now apparently solidly over, and those left still preferring McCain aren’t as solidly so. How that translates into turnout on election day remains to be seen but looking good. Seems like [Nate of 538](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/what-obama-accomplished-at-debate.html) has a similar take, looking not only at that one poll but others as well. > [@](#): > > There are hints of this pattern in other surveys. Rasmussen reports that 40 percent of voters now have a very favorable view of Barack Obama, the highest that this number has been all year, and an improvement from 36 percent in their last release before the debate. And voters feel safer about Obama. In today’s ABC News poll, which actually had McCain gaining back some ground overall, 55 percent of voters said they considered Obama a “safe” choice, as opposed to 50 percent for McCain. In mid-June, the last time that ABC had asked this question, McCain led in this category 57-50. > > So Obama may not have persuaded that many voters on Friday night (I don’t think his performance, frankly, was all that persuasive). But he may have reassured and locked in some of his soft supporters – perhaps Clinton voters and working class Dems. Today though come some numbers that show that the debate may have actually forked McCain some where it counts the most - some critical states. [Today’s Quinnipac numbers](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-101.html) show some results reported out both pre and post debate in Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. In each case Obama gained ground. Up two more in Florida, one more in Ohio, and nine in Pennsylvania. Even if the pollster does lean Obamaward he likely leans so by a consistent amount. 538’s model now gives McCain 14.6% chance of pulling it off and Obama a 28.5% chance of winning with 375 EVs or more. How do we want to define forked? I’ll wait for the VP debate to be behind us and some package on the economic rescue plan to be passed, but barring some surprising McCain gamechanger there the silverware gets passed out. As to the op … Well McCain did get some passes - probably up to the point that he started whining about how unfair the press was - and Palin did - in a short term both turn his numbers around and rally the GOP wagons 'round him. Who knows if Senator Clinton would have done better or worse. At least she wouldn’t have had Bill out therer constantly saying how wonderful Mccain is! ---
**Author:** ![Enola\_Gay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/3ab097/32.png) [@Enola\_Gay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enola_Gay)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2008, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/757 "2008-10-01T17:14:53Z")
> [@Shayna](#): > > Quinnipiac is officially up now. . . > > _FLORIDA:_ **Obama 51, McCain 43** > > _OHIO:_ **Obama 50, McCain 42** > > _PENNSYLVANIA:_ **Obama 54, McCain 39** > > _Dates conducted: Sept. 27-29. Error margin: 3.4 percentage points._ > > [http://thepage.time.com/2008/10/01/poll-obama-edges-out-mccain-in-battlegrounds/](http://thepage.time.com/2008/10/01/poll-obama-edges-out-mccain-in-battlegrounds/) Real Clear Politics is showing their “no toss-up” electoral map with McCain at 190 and Obama at 348, which I believe would be considered a land slide victory: [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama\_vs\_mccain/?map=10](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10) Imo, McCain’s only hope is that there are enough rednecks out there who will factor race into their vote once behind the curtain. The Bradley effect… ---
**Author:** ![tnetennba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7993a0/32.png) [@tnetennba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tnetennba)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2008, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/758 "2008-10-01T17:37:13Z")
I don’t buy the Bradley Effect for this one, because I see no reason for someone disposed to vote against Obama to lie about it. ---
**Author:** ![Oy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/bc8723/32.png) [@Oy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oy)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2008, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/759 "2008-10-01T17:56:57Z")
NJ has more electoral votes than Massachusetts? Who knew? I would never have thought that! We’ve got to stop this. We’re feeling too safe. Rev up your paranoia. There’s a month left for things to go terribly wrong. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2008, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/760 "2008-10-01T18:01:56Z")
But grant the possibility of a modest Bradley effect (despite the fact that analyses have failed to see any evidence of it this cycle at least). Offsets include the cell phone effect (polls underestimate Obama support by 1 to 3% by being limited to landlines), the errors inherent in “likely voter” screens (many Obama supporters are not considered “likely” as they have not voted in previous election cycles), and the Obama ground game (GOTV). And oh yes the Obama electoral structural advantage. Hard to see a path to a McCain victory barring some major gamechanging event. To go back to when this thread was created again, yes, get past this next week, the VP debate and an economy rescue plan signed and sealed, then barring a terroist attack (bite my tongue) or some other major unpredictable and uncontrollable event, then McCain’s chance of pulling victory approaches the miniscule possibility that Sen Clinton had when some of us began to declare that she was forked. Like then, not strictly impossible but so improbable as to be nearly so. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604.md?page=37) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604.md?page=39)