# Is McCain forked yet? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 25, 2008, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604 "2008-05-25T23:58:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2008, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/81 "2008-05-26T20:30:33Z")
So when do you plan to start, **DS**? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2008, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/82 "2008-05-26T20:33:26Z")
As my wife learned back in Lamaze, years ago: “Ah-hee … Ah-hee … Ah-hee” There. I’m better now. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2008, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/83 "2008-05-26T20:42:08Z")
[QUOTE=Jophiel] I’m not sure where he got his Ohio & Wisconsin poll info mentioned in his most recent entry – SUSA just showed Obama with a large lead in Ohio (which averages with other polls on RCP to Obama by +1.2) and there hasn’t been a new Wisconsin poll in forever. [/QUOTE] FWIW, [Election Projection](http://www.electionprojection.com/) just revised to give Obama a large electoral vote lead (293-245) in light of recent polling. The webmaster says he’ll explain his methodology in the coming week or so. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2008, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/84 "2008-05-28T01:58:37Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] The consensus to the op is apparently no, McCain is not yet forked. Some believe he is well positioned for a victory ( **DD** ). Some believe that Obama will end up winning closely. Some believe that Obama will have a blow-out but agree that it is too early to have much confidence about it. [/QUOTE] No, I think it will be a very close race, and it’s not too late for Obama to win over Fla & MI. One easy way is to get the Clintons on his team. But there may be other ways. And, thinsg do change. But it is bad to think they will only change your way. Rove and co have yet to launch their Swiftboat attack vs Obama. It is just that-_as things stand now_- Obama is in for another very tough fight. Mc Cain is by no means “forked”. And- HRC is very much the longshot now, but the horses are still running. (I’ll admit she is _very_ close to being forked) ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2008, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/85 "2008-05-28T02:01:22Z")
[QUOTE=Jophiel] The webmaster says he’ll explain his methodology in the coming week or so. [/QUOTE] The guy has done some damned weird things in the past, so this ought to be good. His favorite trick is to draw a line connecting the most recent 2 points, extend it to Election Day, and call that a projection. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2008, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/86 "2008-05-28T02:13:19Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] I’ve indulged you by answering that silly question enough times already. [/QUOTE] Linky no worky. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2008, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/87 "2008-05-28T02:32:03Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] The guy has done some damned weird things in the past, so this ought to be good. His favorite trick is to draw a line connecting the most recent 2 points, extend it to Election Day, and call that a projection. [/QUOTE] _Shrug_ You stated, in regards to electoral vote predictions, that [Electoral-Vote.com](http://Electoral-Vote.com) was “the only one I know of” and so we should work off of it for lack of anything better despite its obvious and glaring flaws in currently predicting the general election\*. So people are offering other sources. You’re welcome to dismiss those (and really, I doubt any predictions right now) but you shouldn’t act so petulant when people don’t want to take [Electoral-Vote.com](http://Electoral-Vote.com) as gospel. \*Personally, I like [Electoral-Vote.com](http://Electoral-Vote.com) but the mere fact that the webmaster isn’t using the same methodology right now for the general as he’ll be using in September should speak volumes that the current predictions are to be taken with a large heap of salt. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2008, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/88 "2008-05-28T02:32:12Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] They don’t. I was talking about his _media image_ [/QUOTE] McCain has no significant media image; they’re too focused on Hillary’s cries of “I’m not dead yet!” and “I’ll bite your kneecaps off!” ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2008, 3:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/89 "2008-05-29T03:52:41Z")
In terms of how Obama [wins without](http://www.blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/05/28/expertinent-the-southwest-passage.aspx) Ohio and Florida - > [@](#): > > STUMPER: This week, Obama is stumping in Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. How important is the Southwest to his general-election strategy? Does he need to win there? Can he win there? > SCHALLER: The three states you hit on are obviously the most important and the most likely states. They’re among the three fastest growing states in the union: Arizona’s first and Colorado and Nevada are right behind it. So long-term, they’re important states for the Democratic coalition. Short-term, if you can put together the three non-Arizona Southwestern states–Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico–that’s 19 electoral votes. Add them to Kerry’s 252 electoral votes and you’re over 270 [the amount required to win]. That’s Obama right there. > > There are five ways that Obama can get from Kerry’s 252 over the top, and that’s one of them. Florida is obviously one. Ohio is one. Then there are what I call the “36th Parallel” strategies: Virginia and West Virginia, or Missouri and Kentucky, both of which are unlikely. I think of all five, Ohio is the most probable–but the Southwest troika is Obama’s second most likely path to the White House. OTOH McCain _can_ [pull it off](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/how_mccain_can_win.html) but > [@](#): > > he will have to run one of the best campaigns in modern history. How can he do it? In the immortal words of former California governor Jerry Brown, by running “left and right at the same time.” ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2008, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/90 "2008-05-31T21:23:46Z")
[QUOTE=Jophiel] _Shrug_ You stated, in regards to electoral vote predictions, that [Electoral-Vote.com](http://Electoral-Vote.com) was “the only one I know of” and so we should work off of it for lack of anything better despite its obvious and glaring flaws in currently predicting the general election\*. [/quote] Absolutely wrong. It’s the best data we have even _knowing_ its weaknesses, or rather, the weaknesses of its source data. Come on now. :dubious: The absurdity of the electionprojection guy’s _methods_ of projection, as opposed to his source data, makes them noncredible in any context. > [@stevemb](#): > > McCain has no significant media image Um, okay 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2008, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/91 "2008-05-31T21:33:44Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] Absolutely wrong. It’s the best data we have even _knowing_ its weaknesses, or rather, the weaknesses of its source data. Come on now. :dubious: The absurdity of the electionprojection guy’s _methods_ of projection, as opposed to his source data, makes them noncredible in any context. Um, okay 😃 [/QUOTE] [Electoral-vote.com](http://Electoral-vote.com) has Obama beating McCain today quite handily - May 31 Electoral Votes: Obama 276 McCain 238 ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2008, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/92 "2008-05-31T21:39:21Z")
“Slightly over 50 percent for the first time” is an optimistic definition of “handily”, but if you insist … ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2008, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/93 "2008-05-31T21:44:34Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] “Slightly over 50 percent for the first time” is an optimistic definition of “handily”, but if you insist … [/QUOTE] True, I am more black and white than that, I don’t know what got into me putting ‘handily’ in there…that’s waaaay too grey area for me! That’s so Rhode Island of me - damn it I live in Connecticut! I’m thinking once this nom is locked up we’ll see Obama’s numbers increase, and then level off. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2008, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/94 "2008-06-06T17:44:36Z")
Charlie Cook believes that the Republicans, “…appear to have a 50-50 shot at holding on to the presidency,” although they will do poorly in both state and national legislative contests. [http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/cr\_20080607\_9487.php](http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/cr_20080607_9487.php) As **John Mace** notes, the race is still young. But C. Cook has a better idea of how to interpret early polling results than I do: I take his views seriously. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2008, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/95 "2008-06-06T17:53:44Z")
Will McCain be able to get funding? For the first time in US History, can a Repub can get money? ---
**Author:** ![wolfman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/a8b319/32.png) [@wolfman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfman)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2008, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/96 "2008-06-06T18:06:44Z")
[QUOTE=Phlosphr] [Electoral-vote.com](http://Electoral-vote.com) has Obama beating McCain today quite handily - May 31 Electoral Votes: Obama 276 McCain 238 [/QUOTE] That’s with a 1% edge in Ohio and Missouri, and ties in Indiana and Virginia. One tiny shift in the wind and it’s McCain 282. And two campaigns can put out a lot of wind in 5 months ;). ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2008, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/97 "2008-06-06T18:30:52Z")
McCain just wasted millions of dollars, launching a nationwide TV campaign that focuses on his war on a day when a variety of economic indicators tanked. He couldn’t be more out of touch. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2008, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/98 "2008-06-07T17:22:21Z")
[QUOTE=wolfman] That’s with a 1% edge in Ohio and Missouri, and ties in Indiana and Virginia. One tiny shift in the wind and it’s McCain 282. And two campaigns can put out a lot of wind in 5 months ;). [/QUOTE] When the situation was reversed, with McCain having a similarly fragile polling advantage over Obama, **Elvis** was declaiming on that basis that Obama wasn’t electable. **Elvis** was also saying that, regardless of its weaknesses, [electoral-vote.com](http://electoral-vote.com) was the best evidence available of electability. Aside from that bit of prologue, I expect **Phlosphr** would be treating [electoral-vote.com](http://electoral-vote.com) as an interesting but unreliable piece of horserace fluff. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2008, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/99 "2008-06-07T17:31:33Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] When the situation was reversed, with McCain having a similarly fragile polling advantage over Obama, **Elvis** was declaiming on that basis that Obama wasn’t electable. [/QUOTE] Exactly. We were all told then that the 1% margins and ties just meant that Obama had to pray for a number of upsets to even be viable. Now the 1% margins in the other direction mean that McCain is still as good as beating Obama. Go figure. I’ll restate my previous postition, that until [E-V.com](http://E-V.com) restarts its older methodology of averaging polls, its general election maps aren’t all that accurate an indicator. But I do find it amusing that what was a telling blow for McCain is a worthless tie for Obama. ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2008, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/100 "2008-06-07T18:15:07Z")
[QUOTE=Liberal] McCain just wasted millions of dollars, launching a nationwide TV campaign that focuses on his war on a day when a variety of economic indicators tanked. He couldn’t be more out of touch. [/QUOTE] He could be touting welfare reform. You know, back before 2000, when all I knew about McCain was what I read here and there, I thought I liked him: independent attitude, forthrightness of speech, etc. Then, post-9/11 he became a total sellout, in my opinion. Now, he’s getting a lot of media coverage, and I’ve watched some of his speeches, and I’m thinking: that’s the guy I used to think I liked? WTF? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604.md?page=6)