# Is McCain forked yet? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 25, 2008, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604 "2008-05-25T23:58:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 51
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2008, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1001 "2008-10-06T21:02:38Z")
So anyone want to guess how low McCain’s win percentage will go on 538 tonight? I’m guessing below 10%, maybe 7. Dang. Being _blown away_ in VA in two seperate polls, NC (Obama +6), nowhere close to picking off PA, losing NM, and both major national trackers (Gallup and Rasmussen) putting Obama by 8. Facing off against a vastly superior ground game. Wow. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2008, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1002 "2008-10-06T21:31:22Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Well said. Those Obama supporters who are either saying “McCain is forked!” or “Obama will lose due to racism” are not really helping. Neither are you. You’re just chattering on a message board, same as us - neither helping nor hurting. Just being part of the peanut gallery, like the rest of us. The difference is, the rest of us aren’t getting on a high horse about how _you’re_ not helping. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2008, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1003 "2008-10-06T21:49:43Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > So anyone want to guess how low McCain’s win percentage will go on 538 tonight? I’m guessing below 10%, maybe 7. What does 538’s “win percentage” mean, anyway? I check the site daily but have never been able to figure that out. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2008, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1004 "2008-10-06T22:01:59Z")
> [@jsc1953](#): > > What does 538’s “win percentage” mean, anyway? I check the site daily but have never been able to figure that out. I gather that using poll numbers and margin-of-error statistics, it’s possible to calculate for each state the probability of tipping one way or the other. Running all of those through a bigger calculation (apparently a Monte Carlo method of running a few hundred simulations using the calculated probabilities from the previous step) gives a probability that each candidate would win the national election if it were held today. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2008, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1005 "2008-10-06T22:02:40Z")
> [@jsc1953](#): > > What does 538’s “win percentage” mean, anyway? I check the site daily but have never been able to figure that out. 538 runs its model simulation 10,000 times for each up date. The win percentage is the percent that of the simulations that result in that candiate projected as winning. Full details available in their FAQs. ---
**Author:** ![Influential\_Panda](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Influential\_Panda](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Influential_Panda)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2008, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1006 "2008-10-06T22:06:45Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > I gather that using poll numbers and margin-of-error statistics, it’s possible to calculate for each state the probability of tipping one way or the other. Running all of those through a bigger calculation (apparently a Monte Carlo method of running a few hundred simulations using the calculated probabilities from the previous step) gives a probability that each candidate would win the national election if it were held today. Not quite. 538 is based on trendlines, and the simulation predicts what will happen on Nov. 4th. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2008, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1007 "2008-10-06T22:55:37Z")
Today I drove by the headquarters of the Arizona Republican party. There were Obama supporters protesting right there. McCain probably won’t lose Arizona. But, I loved the moment. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2008, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1008 "2008-10-06T23:27:13Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > Today I drove by the headquarters of the Arizona Republican party. There were Obama supporters protesting right there. > > McCain probably won’t lose Arizona. But, I loved the moment. Where is it? Downtown? Is it at like Central and Camelback? ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2008, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1009 "2008-10-07T00:23:35Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Neither are you. You’re just chattering on a message board, same as us - neither helping nor hurting. Just being part of the peanut gallery, like the rest of us. > > The difference is, the rest of us aren’t getting on a high horse about how _you’re_ not helping. Well, I’m not so sure about us on a messageboard chattering away and NOT helping. ---
**Author:** ![Koxinga](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/4af34b/32.png) [@Koxinga](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Koxinga)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2008, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1010 "2008-10-07T00:24:51Z")
[McCain-Palin: “Don’t stick a fork in us yet!”](http://features.csmonitor.com/politics/2008/10/06/mccain-palin-dont-stick-a-fork-in-us-yet/) ---
**Author:** ![eleanorigby](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/ee7513/32.png) [@eleanorigby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eleanorigby)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2008, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1011 "2008-10-07T00:28:52Z")
Ah, I see. It’s a two pronged strategy on their part. Where’s the forked tail? Never mind–I was thinking of the Devil’s pitchfork and then his horns and so… I’ll go away now. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2008, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1012 "2008-10-07T00:46:55Z")
[McCain calls Obama a liar, faults his Chicago ties](http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081006/ap_on_el_pr/mccain_7) > [@](#): > > Behind in the polls, Republican John McCain on Monday called Democratic rival Barack Obama a liar as he leveled his harshest criticism yet, and said the campaign boils down to one basic question: Who is Obama really? “Who is Obama really” seems like a _really_ stupid question to cling to at this stage of the campaign. McCain’s been trying to define Obama for months. As witnessed by the polls, that effort’s been a failure. I guess McCain goes with what he’s got, even if it hasn’t worked before. Maybe with the added ‘liar’ stuff, it’ll work this time. I doubt it. ---
**Author:** ![descamisado](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e480ec/32.png) [@descamisado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/descamisado)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2008, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1013 "2008-10-07T00:53:11Z")
> [@Squink](#): > > [McCain calls Obama a liar, faults his Chicago ties](http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081006/ap_on_el_pr/mccain_7)"Who is Obama really" seems like a _really_ stupid question to cling to at this stage of the campaign. McCain’s been trying to define Obama for months. As witnessed by the polls, that effort’s been a failure. I guess McCain goes with what he’s got, even if it hasn’t worked before. Maybe with the added ‘liar’ stuff, it’ll work this time. I doubt it. Liar? First, Rezko, Ayers and past associations. McCain sure likes to open cans of worms lately, doesn’t he? ---
**Author:** ![askeptic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/eb9ed0/32.png) [@askeptic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/askeptic)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2008, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1014 "2008-10-07T00:54:58Z")
> [@Squink](#): > > [McCain calls Obama a liar, faults his Chicago ties](http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081006/ap_on_el_pr/mccain_7)"Who is Obama really" seems like a _really_ stupid question to cling to at this stage of the campaign. McCain’s been trying to define Obama for months. As witnessed by the polls, that effort’s been a failure. I guess McCain goes with what he’s got, even if it hasn’t worked before. Maybe with the added ‘liar’ stuff, it’ll work this time. I doubt it. [QUOTE=McCain] “You need to know who you’re putting in the White House — where the candidate came from and what he or she believes,” McCain said. “And you need to know now, before it is time to choose.” [/QUOTE] I thought he was talking about Palin, sort of a senior moment… ---
**Author:** ![Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/bc8723/32.png) [@Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fish)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2008, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1015 "2008-10-07T01:34:49Z")
Of course. We need to know who a candidate is and what he believes. But when we find out who **McCain** is, and what **he** believes, it’s a smear tactic. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2008, 1:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1016 "2008-10-07T01:52:22Z")
> [@Phlosphr](#): > > Where is it? Downtown? Is it at like Central and Camelback? 24th street and Osborn. ---
**Author:** ![bannerrefugee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/c68b51/32.png) [@bannerrefugee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bannerrefugee)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2008, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1017 "2008-10-07T01:59:11Z")
This forking is taking an uncomfortably long time. ---
**Author:** ![tnetennba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7993a0/32.png) [@tnetennba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tnetennba)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2008, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1018 "2008-10-07T02:13:25Z")
Well, it’s not like McCain is actually going to lose the election until Nov 4. Even Dole wasn’t technically dead until election day. ---
**Author:** ![Frostillicus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Frostillicus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frostillicus)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2008, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1019 "2008-10-07T02:22:37Z")
> [@Squink](#): > > [McCain calls Obama a liar, faults his Chicago ties](http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081006/ap_on_el_pr/mccain_7)"Who is Obama really" seems like a _really_ stupid question to cling to at this stage of the campaign. McCain’s been trying to define Obama for months. As witnessed by the polls, that effort’s been a failure. I guess McCain goes with what he’s got, even if it hasn’t worked before. Maybe with the added ‘liar’ stuff, it’ll work this time. I doubt it. If only Obama had to go through a series of primary contests in every state in the union, and debate a group of experienced and smart politicians over 20 times over the past two years. But its like he came out of nowhere in the past few weeks. What? ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2008, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1020 "2008-10-07T02:28:07Z")
> [@Frostillicus](#): > > If only Obama had to go through a series of primary contests in every state in the union, and debate a group of experienced and smart politicians over 20 times over the past two years. My god, you’re some sort of FREAK! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604.md?page=50) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604.md?page=52)