# Is McCain forked yet? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 25, 2008, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604 "2008-05-25T23:58:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 53
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2008, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1041 "2008-10-07T16:37:56Z")
> [@Slacker](#): > > We being Michigan? Or (political party)? “We” being the Obama campaign. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2008, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1042 "2008-10-07T16:49:40Z")
> [@Lakai](#): > > Nebraska and Maine split their electoral votes. They award one vote to the winner of each district. Although, if I recall correctly, neither of these states has ever split their electoral votes, with very little chance of it happening this year either. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2008, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1043 "2008-10-07T16:57:24Z")
> [@An\_Arky](#): > > Maybe that’s why the current administration does the ill of the people instead of the will of the people! - applause \* ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2008, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1044 "2008-10-07T17:01:10Z")
> [@Merijeek](#): > > But Clinton’s people stole all the ‘W’ keys on their way out! And Bert is _pissed._ ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2008, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1045 "2008-10-07T17:10:08Z")
Isn’t 538 just reporting the average number of EV’s won across their 10k simulations? I’m not sure how you’d pick a specific state-by-state outcome based on their simulation. Median outcome? May itself be very unlikely (i.e., to get that specific number would require surprising flips in opposite directions in various states). Single most numerous simulation outcome? Might skew significantly from the mean. I don’t see why reporting the mean is a problem. _shrug_ ---
**Author:** ![choie](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/choie/32/7829_2.png) [@choie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/choie)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2008, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1046 "2008-10-07T17:19:42Z")
Speaking of forked (though I hate to put a _kineahora_ on Obama/Biden), today’s Gallup Daily Tracking poll shows Obama’s biggest numbers yet: [Obama’s got 51 to McCain’s 42](http://www.gallup.com/poll/111004/Gallup-Daily-9Point-Obama-Lead-Ties-Campaign-High.aspx). I believe this is the first time Obama reached above 50%; the nine-point lead ties his biggest lead ever, the first time being after his international tour in July. Dang, that VP debate sure helped McCain! Dead moose bounce indeed. Also, this three-day rolling average (results are from 10/4 to 10/6) includes at least one day of polling after McCain/Palin’s negative spewing began. I hope this is a sign that negativity isn’t working – or at least, not to the degree McCain/Palin want it to. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2008, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1047 "2008-10-07T17:25:34Z")
The latest polls have Obama running 10+ ahead on Penn. I wonder at what point McCain decides to cut his losses and focus on the minimum states he needs to win: the Bush states minus Iowa and New Mexico. Basically Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Colorado. Considering that he is running signficantly behind in some of his must-win states he can’t afford to waste money in Penn. ``` The negative attacks look like McCain's last desperate strategy. I don't think it will work and at this point an Obama landslide (10+ in the popular vote) looks more likely than a McCain win. Many people are predicting that the race will narrow in the final stretch but I wouldn't be surprised if Obama maintains his current lead right till the end. Certainly the McCain campaign isn't looking very effective right now, floundering from one failed strategy to the next. ``` ---
**Author:** ![tim314](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tim314/32/3468_2.png) [@tim314](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tim314)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2008, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1048 "2008-10-07T17:27:45Z")
[electoral-vote.com](http://electoral-vote.com) just posted their [best map yet](http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Oct07.html) for Obama. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2008, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1049 "2008-10-07T17:42:45Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > The latest polls have Obama running 10+ ahead on Penn. I wonder at what point McCain decides to cut his losses and focus on the minimum states he needs to win: the Bush states minus Iowa and New Mexico. Basically Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Colorado. Considering that he is running signficantly behind in some of his must-win states he can’t afford to waste money in Penn. There’s also Iowa (Bush in 04, apparently hopeless for McCain) and Indiana, North Carolina, and Nevada (all Bush in 04, now toss-ups). The previous round of [pollster.com](http://pollster.com) results showed eight toss-up states for which McCain needed to run the board; the current results shows five tossups and a definite win for Obama unless McCain can flip back some of the ones that are trending blue. ---
**Author:** ![Tabithina](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f04885/32.png) [@Tabithina](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tabithina)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2008, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1050 "2008-10-07T17:44:32Z")
We are trying to fork him in Missouri: [http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1847473,00.html](http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1847473,00.html) My hubby and I are part of this effort. We are meeting a lot of truly undecided voters who are starting to break for Obama. He will not win our county, but the precious votes from the rural areas can win him the state. We have a field office here and it is getting busier by the day. My hubby will be out canvassing later today, and if the weather clears, I will pick a neighborhood and go out with my toddler in his stroller and knock on doors too. We have lots of canvassing to do here. ---
**Author:** ![choie](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/choie/32/7829_2.png) [@choie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/choie)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2008, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1051 "2008-10-07T17:46:33Z")
> [@tim314](#): > > [electoral-vote.com](http://electoral-vote.com) just posted their [best map yet](http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Oct07.html) for Obama. 😃 Holy cow. Missouri and Colorado went from barely GOP to barely Dem, and Ohio, VA and Florida all went from barely Dem to weak Dem. It can all change in an instant, of course. But I’m liking this map. I’m liking this map a _lot_. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2008, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1052 "2008-10-07T17:47:40Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > The latest polls have Obama running 10+ ahead on Penn. I wonder at what point McCain decides to cut his losses and focus on the minimum states he needs to win: the Bush states minus Iowa and New Mexico. Basically Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Colorado. Considering that he is running signficantly behind in some of his must-win states he can’t afford to waste money in Penn. He already is cutting his losses. Michigan. That was a very good belwether for his campaign right now. Oddly, as far as transparancy is concerned, his campaign is crystal clearly floundering. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2008, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1053 "2008-10-07T17:51:02Z")
> [@tim314](#): > > [electoral-vote.com](http://electoral-vote.com) just posted their [best map yet](http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Oct07.html) for Obama. 😃 Yowza. Obama’s “safe” votes (5%+ states) are over 300 just by themselves. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2008, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1054 "2008-10-07T17:56:38Z")
> [@Tabithina](#): > > We are trying to fork him in Missouri: > [http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1847473,00.html](http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1847473,00.html) > > My hubby and I are part of this effort. We are meeting a lot of truly undecided voters who are starting to break for Obama. He will not win our county, but the precious votes from the rural areas can win him the state. We have a field office here and it is getting busier by the day. > > My hubby will be out canvassing later today, and if the weather clears, I will pick a neighborhood and go out with my toddler in his stroller and knock on doors too. We have lots of canvassing to do here. I love you. Move to Michigan. Bring hubby. We need more door knockers. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2008, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1055 "2008-10-07T18:04:09Z")
> [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](#): > > I love you. Move to Michigan. Bring hubby. We need more door knockers. Note: when she shows up do _not_ say “Man, what knockers!” ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2008, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1056 "2008-10-07T18:11:18Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Note: when she shows up do _not_ say “Man, what knockers!” [These?](http://www.hatchwellantiques.co.uk/images_antique/products/240_1_mid.jpg) ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2008, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1057 "2008-10-07T18:12:44Z")
My wife and I are most likely going to send absantee ballots and drive to PA to help people get to the polls. What else can we do, we are in New England. I suppose we could go to New Hampshire, but I have a feeling because people are not telling them which way to vote this time[ala Obama polling ahead in primaries only to see a Hillary win] , that they will break Obama. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2008, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1058 "2008-10-07T18:16:28Z")
> [@Phlosphr](#): > > My wife and I are most likely going to send absantee ballots and drive to PA to help people get to the polls. What else can we do, we are in New England. I suppose we could go to New Hampshire, but I have a feeling because people are not telling them which way to vote this time[ala Obama polling ahead in primaries only to see a Hillary win] , that they will break Obama. That’s great news. Thanks so much for helping out. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2008, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1059 "2008-10-07T18:19:36Z")
> [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](#): > > That’s great news. Thanks so much for helping out. Hey ANYTHING we can do to get Obama elected. Money, time, perseverance is easy when I think about what will come from an Obama Administration. To be honest, I just can’t wait to see what he can do… ---
**Author:** ![Tabithina](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f04885/32.png) [@Tabithina](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tabithina)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2008, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604/1060 "2008-10-07T18:22:14Z")
> [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](#): > > I love you. Move to Michigan. Bring hubby. We need more door knockers. Thanks! I’ll stay put, though…needed here. 🙂 It feels like we are going to pull this off, but it will be a squeaker. I am an extremely, _extremely_ shy person and never thought I could do something like this. I never have until now. I am meeting lots of folks who have never volunteered before, of all ages and from many different walks of life. I hope you can find more door-knockers. Even if they can only do a little bit, it helps. Sometimes my hubby can only turn in a few pages at a time because of his crazy work schedule. But the quantity over time adds up. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604.md?page=52) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-mccain-forked-yet/450604.md?page=54)